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2016 Fantasy Baseball Tiered Rankings: Catcher (February)

As pitchers and catchers report, I too am here to report with another round of catcher rankings analysis. The analysis focuses on one-catcher standard leagues.

In deeper and two-catcher leagues, you will want to prioritize the safer options. You'll also want to drop the higher-risk/higher-reward options lower in your rankings, as the waiver wire will be less fruitful. As you will see below, outside of the top two players, catcher is a position where I would wait on and seek value depending on my risk tolerance.

By the way, in case you've been living under a rock, be sure to also check out our 2016 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard, which is already loaded up with lots of great articles. Aside from staff rankings across all positions, we also dig into MLB prospect rankings, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well. With that said, onto the specific analysis we now go.

 

2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings Analysis: Catchers

Unsurprisingly, Buster Posey is in the top tier by himself. Posey has been remarkably consistent at a position where such consistency is rare. In each of his five years with 108 games played or more (four of them between 147 and 150 games), he has hit between .294 and .336, with 15-24 homers. Over the past four years, he has averaged 72 runs and 90 RBIs. He will not hit the most homers at the position and likely will not steal bases, but he will be a large boost to your average while contributing at three of the four remaining categories.

Now, if you ditch the high performing model and go with the sexy option, the one man second tier is for you. That tier is comprised of Kyle "Hulk" Schwarber, who has lived up to that moniker with his overall performance as well as an epic shot last postseason. As the current option in left field, he should (1) get a full plate of games and (2) have dual eligibility, although it is unlikely that you would use him as an outfielder.

While he only played 69 games, his 162 game adjusted numbers are .246/38/122/101/7. Moreover, in nine postseason games, he hit 5 homers with 6 runs, 8 RBIs and a .333 batting average. Schwarber also hit extremely well at each level of the minors. While pitchers will now have a book on him, he is the guy to select if you are seeking enormous upside. However, Posey's numbers and reliability still place him ahead of Schwarber in each of our rankings.

Once you get past the first two tiers, the best plan is to start searching for value. The Rotoballer tiers 3-5 are as follows: third (Russell Martin, Jonathan Lucroy, Travis d'Arnaud and Brian McCann); fourth (Yasmani Grandal, Devin Mesoraco and Salvador Perez); and, fifth (Matt Wieters, Stephen Vogt, Yan Gomes). However, I have them all close together (except Vogt) and would draft based on my risk tolerance, and within that grouping, wait for the player who slipped rather than being one of the first few to select from this group. I split this large group into (a) low risk, (b) 2015 injury but moderate risk, and (c) relatively higher injury risk. The injury risks are fairly subjective, but this is how I see them. In deeper leagues, groups (a) and (b) hold more value relative to group (c) than in shallower leagues

Group (a) consists of Martin, McCann and Perez. McCann has hit between .230 and .232 three of the past four years, with homers ranging from 20-26. Last year, his RBIs spiked to 94 and his runs to 68, whereas in the prior three years they ranged from 57-75 and 43-57. With a good Yankee lineup, his run production totals should stay on the high end if healthy. Martin hit .240/23/76/77/4 last year, and those numbers seem reasonable going forward. Perez seems like another similar option who will likely post a better average but lag in the other categories.

Group (b) consists of Wieters, Lucroy and Gomes. Wieters is now almost two years removed from his Tommy John surgery, and heated up at the end of last year. In three seasons before his Tommy John, he hit 22 or 23 homers each year. His career average is .258. Likely batting around sixth in a powerful Orioles' lineup, his run production could also be good. He is one of my favorite value plays being drafted as the eighth catcher overall. He could produce value similar to McCann and Martin.

Lucroy is coming off a down year battling back from injury, but is not worth his average draft position of the third catcher. While he batted .320, .280, and .301 before his injury-plagued season last year, and .289 after the break last year, his run production is limited in a weak lineup, and he likely will not steal more than a few bases. A high average with average power and run production is what one should expect.

Gomes hit .294 with 11 homers in 88 games in 2013, and followed up with .278/21/61/74 in 2014. Last year he posted .231/12/38/45 in 95 games in an injury-riddled season After the break, however, he hit .241 with 9 homers in 54 games. While he is less valuable than the other two, he is enough in the neighborhood that he could be a value play at his 11th overall catcher draft position.

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Group (c) consists of Grandal, d'Arnaud and Mesoraco. I include them here as Grandal and Mesoraco are coming off of significant injuries, and d'Arnaud has had multiple injuries. Grandal put up a first half line of .282/14/35/36. He fought through a shoulder injury later in the season before having offseason surgery. Mesoraco broke out in 2014, posting .273/25/54/80 in 114 games. He suffered a hip injury last season, however, and put up poor numbers before shutting it down. d'Arnaud likewise suffered an injury last year. In 67 games (approximately half a season of at bats for a catcher), he posted .268/12/31/41. These are true high risk, high reward options.

Among the deeper tiers, Nick Hundley, Welington Castillo, and Wilson Ramos could be worth a look. Ramos, who has been unsuccessfully picked to breakout in the past, hit 15 homers in 128 games last year with 68 RBIs, and is only 28 this year. He is the 21st catcher off of draft boards. Hundley posted a .301/10/45/46 line in Colorado last year, despite playing in only 103 games; his health is worth monitoring in the spring, and he could rise from currently being the 19th catcher selected. Castillo broke out last year after landing in Arizona; in 80 games, he posted an extraordinary .255/17/34/50 line. He is being selected 13th overall.

 

Catcher Tiered Fantasy Baseball Rankings (February)

Ranking Tier Name Brad Max Kyle Nick Harris Jeff Bill
1 1 Buster Posey 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2 2 Kyle Schwarber 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
3 3 Russell Martin 3 4 3 3 3 3 3
4 3 Jonathan Lucroy 5 3 6 5 6 6 4
5 3 Travis d'Arnaud 4 5 4 4 5 7 6
6 3 Brian McCann 6 6 5 6 4 4 5
7 4 Yasmani Grandal 7 8 7 9 7 10 10
8 4 Devin Mesoraco 8 7 8 7 8 11 9
9 4 Salvador Perez 9 11 9 8 11 8 8
10 5 Matt Wieters 17 9 14 10 16 5 7
11 5 Stephen Vogt 13 15 11 11 12 15 12
12 5 Yan Gomes 16 17 10 12 17 9 11
13 6 Derek Norris 10 10 18 16 9 14 19
14 6 Nick Hundley 14 16 17 13 13 12 14
15 6 Francisco Cervelli 11 12 13 17 14 17 16
16 6 Blake Swihart 12 14 12 18 15 16 13
17 6 Welington Castillo 15 19 15 15 19 13 18
18 6 J.T. Realmuto 19 13 16 14 18 20 20
19 6 Miguel Montero 22 18 19 19 10 21 21
20 7 JR Murphy 18 20 20 23 23 18 23
21 7 Yadier Molina 24 21 22 20 22 22 15
22 7 Wilson Ramos 21 22 28 22 20 19 17
23 7 Robinson Chirinos 20 26 24 21 25 24 22
24 7 Dioner Navarro 23 27 24 24 24 23 27
25 8 Cameron Rupp 27 29 23 25 28 25 24
26 8 Hank Conger 25 23 25 26 34 28 25
27 8 A.J. Pierzynski 29 24 21 27 29 30 -
28 8 Jason Castro 30 25 30 28 26 26 30
29 8 James McCann 26 28 29 30 30 27 26
30 9 Chris Iannetta 28 30 32 31 21 29 28
31 9 Caleb Joseph - 32 26 29 36 - -
32 9 Jarrod Saltalamacchia - 31 27 32 37 - -
33 9 Curt Casali - 37 - - 27 - -
34 9 Tyler Flowers - 33 - - 38 - 29
35 9 Josh Phegley 31 34 31 - 39 - -
36 9 Kurt Suzuki - 35 - - 33 - -
37 9 Alex Avlia - 36 - - 32 - -
38 9 Carlos Perez - 39 - - 31 - -
39 9 Carlos Ruiz - 38 - - 35 - -
40 9 Geovany Soto - 40 - - 40 - -

 

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