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Welcome to the second installment of our January ranking breakdowns! If you’re like us here at RotoBaller, you’ve been huddled around the stove awaiting that precious heat for a while now. While there are still some free agent dominoes yet to fall, we've seen quite the flurry of moves.
This round of rankings features seven of our experts. They are Brad Johnson, Max Petrie, Kyle Bishop, Harris Yudin, Jeff Kahntroff, Bill Dubiel, and Nick Mariano. Today we'll cover first base. Assume a standard 5x5 redraft league when reading.
Don't forget to also read the rest of our 2016 fantasy baseball rankings articles and analysis. In case you missed it, we've been churning out dynasty rankings, keeper values, and top MLB prospect rankings for the 2016 fantasy baseball season. Let's get to it.
2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings Analysis: First Base
We have reached that stage of the offseason where most of the players have found their homes. While batting orders are yet to be determined, we can now see where most of the first basemen will call home and who will join them in the lineups. And with that information, we have a second set of rankings. The tiers employed in the rankings are where I determined cutoffs to be based on our composite rankings; while I drew the tier lines, they are based on our composite rankings and thus may not line up with my own rankings.
While everyone ranked Paul Goldschmidt first, I included Miguel Cabrera in his tier. Since 2009, Cabrera has hit .324, .328, .344, .330, .348, .313, .and 338. While Cabrera only posted 25 homers in 2014 and 18 in 119 games last year, I am predicting a bounce back to around 30. With a rebound from a healthy Victor Martinez and Justin Upton replacing Cespedes, Cabrera should provide elite production in average, RBIs, and runs, with good HRs. Goldschmidt should give you an average over .300 and potentially over 30 HRs, but the only two reasons I ranked him ahead of Cabrera are health and the additional 15-20 steals we should expect from him.
While many would have drawn the second tier after Goldschmidt, I started it with Anthony Rizzo. Rizzo is a tier below for me due to the drop in batting average. While Goldschmidt could hit .320 and Cabrera could top that mark, Rizzo has finished at .286 and .278 the past two seasons. He has improved his strikeout rate, however, and thus could have a boost in average. An argument could be made to move him into the top tier. He has the power upside of Goldschmidt, should provide elite run production in a strong lineup, and can mix in some steals (17 last year, but prior career high of 6).
I do not see a separation in tiers between Rizzo, Edwin Encarnacion and Chris Davis, even though other rankers do. Encarnacion belted 39 homers with 94 runs and 111 RBIs in only 146 games, while hitting a respectable .277. Davis slugged 47 homers despite leading the league in homers robbed; moreover, after the break he hit .293 with 28 homers, 56 runs, and 65 RBI in 74 games. Those numbers are better than his 2013 numbers, and he could very well finish in the top tier as a result. That's why I ranked him higher than anyone else (fourth) and even considered putting him third.
Because Joey Votto does not have the HR potential or the lineup necessary for elite run production, I would have him in a lower tier than my fellow rankers. His ability to draw walks makes his actual value exceed his fantasy value. I would also have Jose Abreu in the next tier, but I am more confident in his upside than Votto's. I expect Chicago's hitters to rebound somewhat this year leading to better run production. Remember, the Sox added Todd Frazier, and Abreu can hit over 30 HRs.
There is a big dropoff for me to the next tier. It includes players who I would all confidently peg below 30 HRs, and who I do not expect to hit .300, with the possible exception of Freddie Freeman. I rank Eric Hosmer lower than my peers, as I am a bit confused to his appeal.
In the next tier, there are players I rate more highly than in the above tier. I like Albert Pujols more than my peers. At the break, he had 26 homers, 52 runs and 56 RBIs. While he will be 36, his foot, which slowed him at the end of last year, may be healthier. He has 40/100/100 upside with a .260 average, and while he carries some risk, I am willing to take it.
Two players I am down on in this tier are Brandon Belt and Carlos Santana. Belt has never hit over .289 or over 18 homers. The concussion concerns me after seeing the effects on Brian Roberts and Justin Morneau, and at 28 I am not expecting him to continue improving. Carlos Santana has hit .252, .268, .231, and .231 with 18, 20, 27, and 19 homers. He has ranged from 68-75 runs and 74-85 RBIs in that span. That does not excite me; I would rather aim for a player with some upside.
As we go down another tier, one player I like more than most is Byung-ho Park. While he could be a bust, given the depth at first base, I am willing to take a risk. Many point to Eric Thames' success in the KBO as a red flag for Park's power numbers. I am not buying it. Park's average home run went significantly farther than Thames', and Park had elite exit velocity. He could put up top tier HR numbers despite playing in Minnesota; the concern I have is whether he could be a Chris Carter type with all the strikeouts. But at this point, why not take the risk and hope he can break out to be a Davis type instead?
Two deep sleepers of mine are Mark Trumbo and Steve Pearce (depending on where he signs). I am not convinced that Trumbo was fully healthy the past two years, and thus I think he could rebound. While his power should have declined with age, he hit 29, 32, and 34 homers in 2011-2013 despite playing in Anaheim. He hit .254, .268, and .234. His strikeout rate is lower now, and a .270 average with 30 homers would not be crazy for him in Camden Yards. Likely hitting fifth or sixth, he should be able to produce runs.
Pearce hit .293 with 21 homers in only 102 games in 2014. While he struggled last year, it seemed to be related to BABIP and teams shifting him. He still hit 15 homers in 92 games. If he lands a starting role in a good park, he could be an excellent value pick; he has shown the power, but needs the average to recover.
First Base Tiered Fantasy Baseball Rankings (January)
| Rank | Tier | Name | Brad | Max | Kyle | Nick | Harris | Jeff | Bill |
| 1 | 1 | Paul Goldschmidt | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | Miguel Cabrera | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | 2 | Anthony Rizzo | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 4 | 2 | Edwin Encarnacion | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| 5 | 2 | Joey Votto | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 4 |
| 6 | 2 | Jose Abreu | 7 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 7 |
| 7 | 2 | Chris Davis | 6 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 10 |
| 8 | 3 | Freddie Freeman | 8 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 6 |
| 9 | 3 | Adrian Gonzalez | 12 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 10 | 8 |
| 10 | 3 | Eric Hosmer | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 9 |
| 11 | 3 | Prince Fielder | 14 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 9 | 11 |
| 12 | 4 | Brandon Belt | 9 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 10 | 17 | 15 |
| 13 | 4 | Albert Pujols | 17 | 12 | 15 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 12 |
| 14 | 4 | Lucas Duda | 11 | 14 | 13 | 16 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
| 15 | 4 | Mark Teixeira | 16 | 18 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 14 | 13 |
| 16 | 4 | Carlos Santana | 13 | 15 | 16 | 18 | 16 | 21 | 14 |
| 17 | 5 | Kendrys Morales | 15 | 16 | 18 | 17 | 19 | 18 | 17 |
| 18 | 5 | Adam Lind | 18 | 17 | 17 | 15 | 17 | 20 | 19 |
| 19 | 5 | Ryan Zimmerman | 19 | 21 | 20 | 22 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
| 20 | 5 | Byung-ho Park | 26 | 19 | 19 | 21 | 29 | 16 | 18 |
| 21 | 5 | Mitch Moreland | 24 | 20 | 21 | 20 | 26 | 22 | 25 |
| 22 | 6 | Matt Adams | 21 | 27 | 22 | 19 | 27 | 28 | 22 |
| 23 | 6 | Justin Bour | 23 | 24 | 23 | 25 | 24 | 29 | 23 |
| 24 | 6 | Chris Carter | 22 | 32 | 24 | 23 | 23 | 26 | 21 |
| 25 | 6 | Pedro Alvarez | 30 | 28 | 28 | 27 | 22 | 27 | 28 |
| 26 | 6 | Justin Morneau | 28 | 22 | 25 | 30 | 43 | 30 | 24 |
| 27 | 6 | Chris Colabello | 34 | 23 | 30 | 29 | 30 | 32 | 29 |
| 28 | 6 | Brandon Moss | 20 | 33 | 35 | 28 | 38 | 23 | 27 |
| 29 | 6 | Gregory Bird | 34 | 30 | 31 | 33 | 42 | 25 | 26 |
| 30 | 6 | C.J. Cron | 25 | 36 | 33 | 26 | 31 | 31 | - |
| 31 | 6 | Mark Trumbo | - | 27 | 26 | 24 | 21 | 12 | - |
| 32 | 6 | Mike Napoli | 27 | 26 | 27 | 31 | 25 | - | - |
| 33 | 7 | Ryan Howard | 31 | 34 | 32 | - | 32 | - | 30 |
| 34 | 7 | Adam LaRoche | 33 | 29 | 34 | 34 | 28 | - | - |
| 35 | 7 | Logan Morrison | 29 | 35 | - | 35 | 34 | - | - |
| 36 | 7 | Ben Paulsen | - | 31 | 29 | - | 44 | - | - |
| 37 | 7 | A.J. Reed | 32 | - | - | 32 | - | - | |
| 38 | 7 | Luis Valbuena | - | - | - | - | 20 | - | - |
| 39 | 7 | Yonder Alonso | - | - | - | - | 33 | - | - |
| 40 | 7 | Mark Cahna | - | 38 | - | - | 35 | - | - |
| 41 | 7 | Stephen Vogt | - | - | - | - | 36 | - | - |
| 42 | 7 | Jon Singleton | - | - | - | - | 37 | - | - |
| 43 | 7 | Justin Smoak | - | - | - | - | 39 | - | - |
| 44 | 7 | Steve Pearce | - | - | - | - | 40 | 24 | - |
| 45 | 7 | Joe Mauer | - | - | - | - | 41 | - | - |
| 46 | 7 | Mark Reynolds | - | 37 | - | - | 45 | - | - |
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