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2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Outfield (Part 1)

Welcome back to the first edition of RotoBaller’s 2016 fantasy baseball rankings. We went around the horn and finished the infield with a look at third base yesterday, so now our attention turns to the outfield. If you’re just joining us, this first round of rankings was compiled by Brad Johnson, Max Petrie, and Nick Mariano in addition to yours truly. As we draw closer to the start of the season, the rest of our deep stable of MLB writers will offer their input.

As with the infield rankings, there wasn’t much dissension on the elite options. Mike Trout and Bryce Harper, naturally, were unanimous choices for first and second, respectively. Three of us had Giancarlo Stanton at #3 followed by Andrew McCutchen, while Brad had the two flipped. Brad included J.D. Martinez in his top 10 at the expense of Ryan Braun, but otherwise we all had the same 10 players at the top. That’s all well and good, but it doesn’t make for terribly interesting analysis. So today, I’ll highlight the outfielders I’m bullish on compared to my fellow RotoBallers. Tomorrow, we’ll look at the other side of the coin and discuss those players about whom I’m more pessimistic. Programming reminder: These rankings were originally submitted on December 6. Transactions since that time may not be reflected in our valuations. However, we'll be releasing updates as the offseason progresses.

Editor's Note: Don't forget to read all of our 2016 fantasy baseball rankings columns. There's lots of great rankings analysis including redraft, dynasty/keeper, prospects and positional tiers.

 

David Peralta

My rank: 25 | Low: 41 | Overall: 32

I wrote about Peralta at length last month. Suffice it to say that I’m completely buying his 2015 breakout. He got the majority of his at-bats as Arizona’s cleanup hitter, hitting behind A.J. Pollock and Paul Goldschmidt. Given a full season in that spot, Peralta should rack up a good amount of RBI. The Arizona lineup is top heavy, but Peralta uses his gap power and speed to great effect in taking extra bases, which will help him score more runs than he otherwise would. He has untapped stolen base upside as well.

 

Joc Pederson

My rank: 26 | Low: 42 | Overall: 34

Despite a second-half collapse, Pederson still hit 26 home runs and posted a 15.7% walk rate in his rookie season. Yes, the contact issues will continue to suppress his batting average. The lack of stolen bases (just four in 11 attempts) was a disappointing development as well. However, Pederson averaged 29 steals in his four minor league seasons and posted much higher Speed scores than he did in his first MLB campaign. With Don Mattingly out of the picture, Pederson should have a longer leash during the inevitable slumps that come with being a three true outcomes hitter. Steamer projects another 26 homers, but also 14 steals and 87 runs. Even with a low batting average, that kind of category juice merits a top-30 ranking, especially factoring in Pederson’s growth potential.

 

Adam Eaton

My rank: 29 | Low: 47 | Overall: 43

Behold – a table!

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BA R RBI HR SB ESPN OF Rank
Eaton .287 98 56 14 18 20
Player B .259 94 66 16 20 26
Player C .291 92 77 18 21 12

 

Player B is Brett Gardner. Player C? Mookie Betts. We all ranked Gardner in the top 30 and Betts in the top 10. Yet everyone else has Eaton in the mid-40s. Maybe they’re remembering his putrid April (.497 OPS, no homers, one steal) rather than his sexy second half (.904 OPS, eight homers, 13 steals). Maybe they’re skeptical of the power, despite the fact that just three of his 14 bombs were classified as “Just Enough” by ESPN’s home run tracker, and his average batted ball distance was higher than Gardner’s and essentially identical to Betts’. Maybe they’re jealous of his manly beard. Whatever the case, it seems like Eaton is being undervalued by my esteemed colleagues.

 

Randal Grichuk

My rank: 34 | Low: 50 | Overall: 44

Despite a strikeout rate north of 30 percent, Grichuk managed to hit .276 last season. Paired with 17 homers, 96 R+RBI, and four steals in just 350 plate appearances, that made him a pretty nifty in-season pickup for many fantasy owners. Normally, a middling walk rate and a high BABIP would give me pause. It certainly seems to have tempered the others’ expectations, but Grichuk’s batted ball data suggests that regression won’t hit as hard as we might otherwise expect. Simply put, he crushes the ball. Pick your metric – hard hit rate, line drive rate, exit velocity – and Grichuk grades out as excellent. He also posted much better whiff rates in the minors, so it’s not crazy to think he’ll improve there. Grichuk might have some SB upside as well; he stole 33 bases over his three full minor league seasons.

 

Outfield Rankings for 2016 Fantasy Baseball

Name Brad Max Kyle Nick Composite
Mike Trout 1 1 1 1 1
Bryce Harper 2 2 2 2 2
Giancarlo Stanton 4 3 3 3 3.25
Andrew McCutchen 3 4 4 4 3.75
Jose Bautista 7 5 6 5 5.75
George Springer 5 9 5 6 6.25
A.J. Pollock 6 6 8 7 6.75
Starling Marte 10 8 7 10 8.75
Ryan Braun 11 7 9 8 8.75
Mookie Betts 8 10 10 9 9.25
J.D. Martinez 9 13 11 11 11
Justin Upton 14 12 12 15 13.25
Charlie Blackmon 13 19 13 14 14.75
Nelson Cruz 15 16 15 16 15.5
Adam Jones 20 11 21 12 16
Kyle Schwarber 16 15 16 19 16.5
Lorenzo Cain 19 20 14 17 17.5
Carlos Gonzalez 17 18 19 18 18
Carlos Gomez 12 14 24 23 18.25
Yoenis Cespedes 25 21 17 13 19
Jason Heyward 18 17 20 24 19.75
Yasiel Puig 23 22 18 25 22
Corey Dickerson 22 26 22 21 22.75
Hunter Pence 28 28 23 20 24.75
Brett Gardner 27 27 27 28 27.25
Jacoby Ellsbury 24 24 32 29 27.25
Curtis Granderson 31 33 28 26 29.5
Kole Calhoun 29 30 33 32 31
Alex Gordon 26 32 35 33 31.5
Matt Holliday 38 29 30 31 32
Michael Brantley 46 23 37 22 32
David Peralta 36 41 25 27 32.25
Jorge Soler 40 36 31 30 34.25
Joc Pederson 34 42 26 38 35
Christian Yelich 30 37 39 34 35
Billy Hamilton 21 25 45 50 35.25
Josh Reddick 33 40 36 35 36
Shin-Soo Choo 35 34 38 37 36
Matt Kemp 39 31 42 43 38.75
Gregory Polanco 42 35 41 41 39.75
Michael Conforto 32 38 43 46 39.75
Stephen Piscotty 37 39 48 36 40
Adam Eaton 47 44 29 44 41
Randal Grichuk 41 50 34 42 41.75
Dexter Fowler 44 45 40 39 42
Hanley Ramirez 45 43 44 40 43
Steven Souza 53 47 47 47 48.5
Ender Inciarte 57 46 46 52 50.25
Khris Davis 63 49 52 45 52.25
Ben Revere 52 60 49 51 53
Ben Zobrist 51 51 57 53 53
Kevin Pillar 62 53 51 48 53.5
Jayson Werth 48 62 53 54 54.25
Delino Deshields 65 48 56 49 54.5
Melky Cabrera 54 52 58 56 55
Billy Burns 60 54 54 58 56.5
Marcell Ozuna 67 55 50 55 56.75
Wil Myers 68 56 55 57 59
Aaron Hicks 43 68 69 65 61.25
Brandon Moss 49 61 71 66 61.75
Aaron Altherr 59 69 60 60 62
Cameron Maybin 70 58 61 59 62
Odubel Herrera 55 66 59 71 62.75
Carlos Beltran 61 67 62 61 62.75
Eddie Rosario 58 64 66 63 62.75
Rusney Castillo 69 57 63 67 64
Jay Bruce 64 63 67 62 64
Colby Rasmus 56 74 65 64 64.75
Gerardo Parra 71 59 64 68 65.5
Danny Valencia 50 65 78 72 66.25
Mark Trumbo 76 75 68 69 72
Marlon Byrd 79 76 72 73 75
Byron Buxton 75 78 73 75 75.25
Denard Span 74 72 85 74 76.25
Brad Miller 66 70 70 ---
Anthony Gose 77 ---
Kevin Kiermaier 83 83 74 ---
Derek Dietrich 77 79 75 ---
Chris Colabello 82 76 70 ---
Andre Ethier 85 79 ---
Brock Holt 78 80 80 ---
Mark Canha 81 ---
Michael Taylor 86 81 82 ---
Domingo Santana 80 82 83 ---
Enrique Hernandez 84 ---
Nori Aoki 73 71 86 ---
Austin Jackson 72 88 87 ---
Eduardo Escobar 87 88 ---
Franklin Gutierrez 89 ---
Preston Tucker 84 90 ---
Jackie Bradley Jr. 86 ---
Chris Coghlan 84 85 ---
Nick Markakis 87 89 ---
Michael Cuddyer 81 ---
Alex Rios 88 90 ---
Yasmany Tomas 73 ---

 

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