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It’s time for another installment of the December edition of RotoBaller’s 2016 fantasy baseball rankings, December edition. If you missed yesterday’s outfield analysis, click here. Today, we’ll discuss the outfielders that I’m bearish on for next season, relative to my colleagues (again, Brad Johnson, Nick Mariano, and Max Petrie also participated in this round of rankings).
Programming reminder: These rankings were originally submitted on December 6. Transactions since that time may not be reflected in our valuations. However, we'll be releasing updates as the offseason progresses.
Make sure you read more of our 2016 fantasy baseball rankings analysis including dynasty leagues, prospect ranks, and tiers for all positions.
Adam Jones
My rank: 21 | High: 11 | Overall: 15
Brad and I are of like minds on Jones, but Max and Nick have him in the top 12. They must not have noticed that his numbers are trending down in every 5x5 category:
| Season | AVG | R | HR | RBI | SB |
| 2013 | .285 | 100 | 33 | 108 | 14 |
| 2014 | .281 | 88 | 29 | 96 | 7 |
| 2015 | .269 | 74 | 27 | 82 | 3 |
Jones remains a productive player and a worthwhile fantasy investment, to be sure. But with those declines in batting average, runs, and stolen bases, Jones isn’t the five-category asset he used to be. For me, that’s enough to slot him in as an OF2 instead of a truly elite option.
Carlos Gomez
My rank: 24 | High: 12 | Overall: 19
Here’s another guy that split the panel. This time I’m joined in my pessimism by Nick, while the others have him at 12 and 14. Like Jones, Gomez has seen his batting average and steals drop over the past few seasons. Unlike Jones, Gomez also suffered from a power outage in 2015, as his home run total was nearly cut in half. That’s partly attributable to Gomez battling myriad injuries throughout the year. Maybe you’re willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and expect the power to return. But given that he just turned 30, it’s fair to be skeptical of him gaining back the 30+ points of BABIP he lost, or stealing 30 bases.
Jacoby Ellsbury
My rank: 32 | High: 24 | Overall: 26
Remember 2011, when Ellsbury was an absolute monster? He hit .321/.376/.522, with 32 homers, 39 steals, and 224 R+RBI. The power predictably turned out to be a mirage; he’s hit 36 homers combined in the four seasons since. You probably don’t need me to tell you that. But Ellsbury has also seen his stolen base totals decline from 52 to 39 to 21 over the last three seasons. He’s hit above .271 just once since that out of nowhere elite season. Most importantly, he’s continued to have trouble staying healthy. Ellsbury has missed a third of his team’s games going back to 2010. There’s no reason to expect him to avoid injury in his age-32 season, and his best tool – his speed – has pretty clearly been sapped by injury and age.
Brandon Moss
My rank: 71 | High: 49 | Overall: 60
Moss had 21 home runs and an .878 OPS at the All-Star break in 2014. In the season and a half since, he’s hit 23 homers and posted a .625 OPS. Here are his slugging percentages from the last four years: .596, .522, .438, .407. He’s always been a batting average liability thanks to high strikeout rates. Without the power to offset that, he’s not worth rostering in all but the deepest mixed leagues - and I'm not prepared to bet on a bounceback for him at age 32.
Outfield Rankings for 2016 Fantasy Baseball
| Name | Brad | Max | Kyle | Nick | Composite |
| Mike Trout | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Bryce Harper | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3.25 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3.75 |
| Jose Bautista | 7 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5.75 |
| George Springer | 5 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 6.25 |
| A.J. Pollock | 6 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 6.75 |
| Starling Marte | 10 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 8.75 |
| Ryan Braun | 11 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 8.75 |
| Mookie Betts | 8 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9.25 |
| J.D. Martinez | 9 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| Justin Upton | 14 | 12 | 12 | 15 | 13.25 |
| Charlie Blackmon | 13 | 19 | 13 | 14 | 14.75 |
| Nelson Cruz | 15 | 16 | 15 | 16 | 15.5 |
| Adam Jones | 20 | 11 | 21 | 12 | 16 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 16 | 15 | 16 | 19 | 16.5 |
| Lorenzo Cain | 19 | 20 | 14 | 17 | 17.5 |
| Carlos Gonzalez | 17 | 18 | 19 | 18 | 18 |
| Carlos Gomez | 12 | 14 | 24 | 23 | 18.25 |
| Yoenis Cespedes | 25 | 21 | 17 | 13 | 19 |
| Jason Heyward | 18 | 17 | 20 | 24 | 19.75 |
| Yasiel Puig | 23 | 22 | 18 | 25 | 22 |
| Corey Dickerson | 22 | 26 | 22 | 21 | 22.75 |
| Hunter Pence | 28 | 28 | 23 | 20 | 24.75 |
| Brett Gardner | 27 | 27 | 27 | 28 | 27.25 |
| Jacoby Ellsbury | 24 | 24 | 32 | 29 | 27.25 |
| Curtis Granderson | 31 | 33 | 28 | 26 | 29.5 |
| Kole Calhoun | 29 | 30 | 33 | 32 | 31 |
| Alex Gordon | 26 | 32 | 35 | 33 | 31.5 |
| Matt Holliday | 38 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 |
| Michael Brantley | 46 | 23 | 37 | 22 | 32 |
| David Peralta | 36 | 41 | 25 | 27 | 32.25 |
| Jorge Soler | 40 | 36 | 31 | 30 | 34.25 |
| Joc Pederson | 34 | 42 | 26 | 38 | 35 |
| Christian Yelich | 30 | 37 | 39 | 34 | 35 |
| Billy Hamilton | 21 | 25 | 45 | 50 | 35.25 |
| Josh Reddick | 33 | 40 | 36 | 35 | 36 |
| Shin-Soo Choo | 35 | 34 | 38 | 37 | 36 |
| Matt Kemp | 39 | 31 | 42 | 43 | 38.75 |
| Gregory Polanco | 42 | 35 | 41 | 41 | 39.75 |
| Michael Conforto | 32 | 38 | 43 | 46 | 39.75 |
| Stephen Piscotty | 37 | 39 | 48 | 36 | 40 |
| Adam Eaton | 47 | 44 | 29 | 44 | 41 |
| Randal Grichuk | 41 | 50 | 34 | 42 | 41.75 |
| Dexter Fowler | 44 | 45 | 40 | 39 | 42 |
| Hanley Ramirez | 45 | 43 | 44 | 40 | 43 |
| Steven Souza | 53 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 48.5 |
| Ender Inciarte | 57 | 46 | 46 | 52 | 50.25 |
| Khris Davis | 63 | 49 | 52 | 45 | 52.25 |
| Ben Revere | 52 | 60 | 49 | 51 | 53 |
| Ben Zobrist | 51 | 51 | 57 | 53 | 53 |
| Kevin Pillar | 62 | 53 | 51 | 48 | 53.5 |
| Jayson Werth | 48 | 62 | 53 | 54 | 54.25 |
| Delino Deshields | 65 | 48 | 56 | 49 | 54.5 |
| Melky Cabrera | 54 | 52 | 58 | 56 | 55 |
| Billy Burns | 60 | 54 | 54 | 58 | 56.5 |
| Marcell Ozuna | 67 | 55 | 50 | 55 | 56.75 |
| Wil Myers | 68 | 56 | 55 | 57 | 59 |
| Aaron Hicks | 43 | 68 | 69 | 65 | 61.25 |
| Brandon Moss | 49 | 61 | 71 | 66 | 61.75 |
| Aaron Altherr | 59 | 69 | 60 | 60 | 62 |
| Cameron Maybin | 70 | 58 | 61 | 59 | 62 |
| Odubel Herrera | 55 | 66 | 59 | 71 | 62.75 |
| Carlos Beltran | 61 | 67 | 62 | 61 | 62.75 |
| Eddie Rosario | 58 | 64 | 66 | 63 | 62.75 |
| Rusney Castillo | 69 | 57 | 63 | 67 | 64 |
| Jay Bruce | 64 | 63 | 67 | 62 | 64 |
| Colby Rasmus | 56 | 74 | 65 | 64 | 64.75 |
| Gerardo Parra | 71 | 59 | 64 | 68 | 65.5 |
| Danny Valencia | 50 | 65 | 78 | 72 | 66.25 |
| Mark Trumbo | 76 | 75 | 68 | 69 | 72 |
| Marlon Byrd | 79 | 76 | 72 | 73 | 75 |
| Byron Buxton | 75 | 78 | 73 | 75 | 75.25 |
| Denard Span | 74 | 72 | 85 | 74 | 76.25 |
| Brad Miller | 66 | 70 | 70 | --- | |
| Anthony Gose | 77 | --- | |||
| Kevin Kiermaier | 83 | 83 | 74 | --- | |
| Derek Dietrich | 77 | 79 | 75 | --- | |
| Chris Colabello | 82 | 76 | 70 | --- | |
| Andre Ethier | 85 | 79 | --- | ||
| Brock Holt | 78 | 80 | 80 | --- | |
| Mark Canha | 81 | --- | |||
| Michael Taylor | 86 | 81 | 82 | --- | |
| Domingo Santana | 80 | 82 | 83 | --- | |
| Enrique Hernandez | 84 | --- | |||
| Nori Aoki | 73 | 71 | 86 | --- | |
| Austin Jackson | 72 | 88 | 87 | --- | |
| Eduardo Escobar | 87 | 88 | --- | ||
| Franklin Gutierrez | 89 | --- | |||
| Preston Tucker | 84 | 90 | --- | ||
| Jackie Bradley Jr. | 86 | --- | |||
| Chris Coghlan | 84 | 85 | --- | ||
| Nick Markakis | 87 | 89 | --- | ||
| Michael Cuddyer | 81 | --- | |||
| Alex Rios | 88 | 90 | --- | ||
| Yasmany Tomas | 73 | --- |
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