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Oh yes, it’s time to peek in at the beautiful landscape for starting pitching heading into the 2016 fantasy baseball season. A brief note, our rankings were submitted on December 6th before the full weight of the winter meetings came down. These initial rankings won’t reflect the moves of guys like Zack Greinke to ARI or Jeff Samardzija to SF, so be aware and come back next month for updates. Starting pitchers have so many factors going into them, and there are so many of them, that our rankings were bound to have quite a few disagreements.
Though every position has some people who are question marks due to injury, there’s nothing that can replicate the volatility of a pitcher and his arm. There are also a decent amount of pitchers who are returning to action in 2016 after missing most or all of 2015 due to injury. You’ll certainly notice our range of opinions on each of them. There’s plenty to look at here, so let’s just jump right in.
In case you missed it, our 2016 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard is loaded with lots more rankings, all in one easy place. We have tiers for every MLB position, prospect rankings, and dynasty/keeper analysis.
2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Starting Pitcher
Kersh is numero uno, shocker. The first pitcher gone across the board will be Clayton Kershaw. Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, and Jake Arrieta round out everyone’s top four (in that order except for Brad, who has Arrieta 2, Scherzer 3, and Sale 4). Greinke is everyone’s #5 except for Kyle, who is higher on younger guys like Jacob deGrom, Jose Fernandez, and Gerrit Cole (as well as the veteran David Price).
We see two relatively large differences in opinion from Kyle against the rest of us on Felix Hernandez and Gerrit Cole. He is much lower than we are on Felix, and much higher than we are on Gerrit. Honestly, I get it. Felix came out strong in 2015, firing his only two 10+K games in two of his first three starts. He had four starts where he gave up seven or more earned runs (including one ugly day in Houston where he gave up eight earned in one third of an inning, and if you remove that start from his year his ERA goes from 3.53 to 3.17). Gerrit Cole put in work in 2015 and improved in many ways, notably cutting his BB/9 figure from 2.61 in 2014 to 1.90. His BABIP and LOB% stayed in line with his 2014 totals so it isn’t like the regression monster is bearing down on him. The only blip might be his HR/FB numbers, which could explain his xFIP being 3.16 (compared to the FIP of 2.66). Be aware, but there's some context for you.
Things play out pretty nicely for the rest of the top 25 with the exception of the polarizing Stephen Strasburg. Anyone shocked that he might be someone who stirs the pot a bit? He was letdown personified in the first half of 2015 (5.16 ERA), but if you stuck it out or bought low you were rewarded with a pretty darn good second half (1.90 ERA). He showed much sharper command later on after he presumably dealt with his injuries and mechanical woes, as he walked 18 people in his 61 first half innings, while he only walked eight in his 66 second half innings. He still pitches on a good Washington team in a division that gets to pick on the N.L. East, so I'm buying and rolling the dice for that upside.
We don’t need to go too far out from here to see another point of contention. While Max and I both have Tanaka around 20, Kyle has Tanaka at 30 with Brad being the lowest at 39. There is a fair amount of concern here regarding his durability as well as a bit of a decline in production since he came out firing when he started his MLB career. Obviously Yankee Stadium isn’t the most fun place for a pitcher either, let alone facing those AL East bruisers. I imagine most of the disparity here comes from optimism vs. pessimism regarding health, but control and speed on the fastball comes into play as well.
Speaking of optimism vs. pessimism regarding health, let’s bring in a third option: total shenanigans. While my three colleagues have Adam Wainwright pegged at around 40, I have him slotted in at 17 right now. Cardinals pitchers have been very good to me (and everyone) over the years, but this isn’t exactly a question of Wainwright’s skill so much as him not being the youngest guy (he’s 34) who is bouncing back from pretty much missing the entirety of 2015 due to injury. I have a lot of faith in Wainwright, and I trust injuries that aren’t arm or back/core related to be a lot more bankable. The Cardinal pitching love may have carried over to my Jaime Garcia rank as well. I will readily own that.
Stay tuned, as tomorrow will bring part two of the starting pitcher rankings breakdown. We'll look further down the table at some names that warrant our attention. For now, here are those juicy rankings you know you've all been clamoring for.
Starting Pitcher Rankings for 2016 Fantasy Baseball
| Name | Brad | Max | Kyle | Nick | Composite |
| Clayton Kershaw | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Max Scherzer | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2.25 |
| Chris Sale | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3.25 |
| Jake Arrieta | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3.5 |
| Zack Greinke | 5 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 6 |
| Jose Fernandez | 7 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6.5 |
| Jacob deGrom | 10 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 7.5 |
| David Price | 9 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 7.5 |
| Dallas Keuchel | 6 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 8.75 |
| Madison Bumgarner | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10.5 |
| Felix Hernandez | 8 | 10 | 18 | 11 | 11.75 |
| Gerrit Cole | 14 | 14 | 8 | 13 | 12.25 |
| Chris Archer | 15 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 13.5 |
| Corey Kluber | 13 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 13.75 |
| Noah Syndergaard | 12 | 15 | 17 | 18 | 15.5 |
| Matt Harvey | 17 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 15.75 |
| Stephen Strasburg | 18 | 22 | 13 | 12 | 16.25 |
| Carlos Carrasco | 16 | 17 | 16 | 20 | 17.25 |
| Jon Lester | 19 | 21 | 19 | 25 | 21 |
| Cole Hamels | 24 | 24 | 21 | 19 | 22 |
| Yu Darvish | 25 | 19 | 22 | 22 | 22 |
| Sonny Gray | 22 | 18 | 24 | 24 | 22 |
| Johnny Cueto | 20 | 25 | 20 | 26 | 22.75 |
| Carlos Martinez | 21 | 27 | 23 | 23 | 23.5 |
| Tyson Ross | 23 | 23 | 26 | 32 | 26 |
| Danny Salazar | 27 | 26 | 25 | 27 | 26.25 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | 39 | 20 | 30 | 21 | 27.5 |
| Francisco Liriano | 26 | 30 | 28 | 29 | 28.25 |
| Marcus Stroman | 30 | 32 | 27 | 28 | 29.25 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | 28 | 28 | 33 | 34 | 30.75 |
| Michael Wacha | 37 | 29 | 35 | 30 | 32.75 |
| Adam Wainwright | 40 | 36 | 41 | 17 | 33.5 |
| Luis Severino | 29 | 31 | 43 | 33 | 34 |
| Scott Kazmir | 36 | 33 | 37 | 39 | 36.25 |
| Jose Quintana | 31 | 41 | 31 | 45 | 37 |
| Michael Pineda | 52 | 35 | 32 | 31 | 37.5 |
| Garrett Richards | 38 | 38 | 39 | 37 | 38 |
| Jake Odorizzi | 32 | 42 | 38 | 42 | 38.5 |
| Lance McCullers | 34 | 51 | 29 | 41 | 38.75 |
| Patrick Corbin | 43 | 46 | 34 | 35 | 39.5 |
| Shelby Miller | 51 | 34 | 54 | 36 | 43.75 |
| John Lackey | 33 | 48 | 56 | 44 | 45.25 |
| Steven Matz | 64 | 39 | 40 | 39 | 45.5 |
| Gio Gonzalez | 44 | 45 | 50 | 46 | 46.25 |
| Alex Cobb | 41 | 43 | 46 | 58 | 47 |
| Justin Verlander | 45 | 49 | 51 | 43 | 47 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | 42 | 44 | 45 | 59 | 47.5 |
| Yordano Ventura | 40 | 47 | 53 | 52 | 48 |
| Jeff Samardzija | 35 | 60 | 48 | 49 | 48 |
| Collin McHugh | 46 | 50 | 52 | 51 | 49.75 |
| Clay Buchholz | 53 | 53 | 49 | 48 | 50.75 |
| Joe Ross | 89 | 40 | 36 | 38 | 50.75 |
| Jaime Garcia | 48 | 52 | 64 | 40 | 51 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | 55 | 55 | 42 | 53 | 51.25 |
| Andrew Cashner | 50 | 37 | 69 | 50 | 51.5 |
| Raisel Iglesias | 60 | 58 | 47 | 47 | 53 |
| James Shields | 61 | 41 | 58 | 54 | 53.5 |
| Drew Smyly | 66 | 46 | 57 | 55 | 56 |
| Taijuan Walker | 70 | 67 | 44 | 56 | 59.25 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | 58 | 57 | 62 | 62 | 59.75 |
| Kyle Hendricks | 62 | 63 | 55 | 60 | 60 |
| Brett Anderson | 57 | 56 | 70 | 61 | 61 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | 54 | 54 | 72 | 64 | 61 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | 47 | 74 | 60 | 65 | 61.5 |
| Robbie Ray | 56 | 69 | 61 | 63 | 62.25 |
| Carlos Rodon | 71 | 68 | 59 | 57 | 63.75 |
| Andrew Heaney | 59 | 65 | 65 | 68 | 64.25 |
| Julio Teheran | 63 | 61 | 74 | 66 | 66 |
| Jason Hammel | 72 | 70 | 63 | 71 | 69 |
| Aaron Nola | 68 | 62 | 73 | 75 | 69.5 |
| Jimmy Nelson | 69 | 66 | 76 | 67 | 69.5 |
| Anibal Sanchez | 67 | 78 | 67 | 69 | 70.25 |
| Marco Estrada | 65 | 64 | 77 | 76 | 70.5 |
| Ian Kennedy | 77 | 75 | 78 | 72 | 75.5 |
| Alex Wood | 81 | 77 | 68 | 81 | 76.75 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | 86 | 91 | 66 | 70 | 78.25 |
| Kevin Gausman | 83 | 76 | 79 | 84 | 80.5 |
| Henry Owens | 88 | 71 | 91 | 74 | 81 |
| Trevor Bauer | 95 | 72 | 85 | 83 | 83.75 |
| Mike Fiers | 71 | 93 | 75 | 97 | 84 |
| Mike Leake | 84 | 80 | 87 | 88 | 84.75 |
| Ervin Santana | 80 | 86 | 99 | 80 | 86.25 |
| Jesse Hahn | 105 | 59 | 109 | 79 | 88 |
| Derek Holland | 73 | 85 | 97 | 100 | 88.75 |
| Edinson Volquez | 82 | 83 | 94 | 98 | 89.25 |
| Erik Johnson | 101 | 82 | 90 | 89 | 90.5 |
| Taylor Jungmann | 109 | 90 | 88 | 85 | 93 |
| Mat Latos | 112 | 95 | 82 | 86 | 93.75 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | 90 | 98 | 93 | 95 | 94 |
| Chris Heston | 106 | 87 | 101 | 82 | 94 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | 96 | 99 | 95 | 87 | 94.25 |
| James Paxton | 85 | 102 | 96 | 96 | 94.75 |
| Jake Peavy | 111 | 96 | 84 | 93 | 96 |
| Phil Hughes | 110 | 89 | 103 | 92 | 98.5 |
| J.A. Happ | 92 | 71 | 78 | --- | |
| Erasmo Ramirez | 94 | 80 | 73 | --- | |
| Nate Karns | 79 | 83 | 91 | --- | |
| Wade Miley | 74 | 97 | 92 | --- | |
| Kyle Gibson | 75 | 100 | 99 | --- | |
| Tyler Duffey | 78 | 81 | 111 | --- | |
| Yovani Gallardo | 91 | 88 | 102 | --- | |
| Zack Wheeler | 104 | 84 | 105 | --- | |
| Josh Tomlin | 87 | 101 | 108 | --- | |
| Chris Tillman | 92 | 103 | 115 | --- | |
| Rubby de la Rosa | 100 | 100 | 104 | --- | |
| Danny Duffy | 107 | 102 | 114 | --- | |
| Kris Medlen | 73 | 89 | --- | ||
| Drew Hutchison | 81 | 77 | --- | ||
| Rick Porcello | 76 | 98 | --- | ||
| Jesse Chavez | 86 | 94 | --- | ||
| Joe Kelly | 79 | 110 | --- | ||
| Daniel Norris | 97 | 104 | --- | ||
| Nicholas Tropeano | 93 | 112 | --- | ||
| Matt Shoemaker | 94 | 113 | --- | ||
| Jonathan Gray | 99 | 108 | --- | ||
| CC Sabathia | 108 | 116 | --- | ||
| Hector Santiago | 114 | 119 | --- | ||
| Wily Peralta | 115 | 105 | --- | ||
| Chase Anderson | 113 | 107 | --- | ||
| Matt Cain | 90 | --- | |||
| Jeremy Hellickson | 98 | --- | |||
| Matt Boyd | 102 | --- | |||
| R.A. Dickey | 106 | --- | |||
| Mike Foltynewicz | 106 | --- | |||
| Jorge de la Rosa | 107 | --- | |||
| Brett Oberholtzer | 116 | --- | |||
| Trevor May | 117 | --- | |||
| Doug Fister | 118 | --- | |||
| Martin Perez | 120 | --- |
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