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We're back again for part two of the first look into our starting pitcher rankings. Brad, Max, Kyle, and I just love baseball so much that we can't stay away from it. Just to remind you all, our rankings were submitted on December 6th before the Hot Stove went berserk and caused this late December heat wave to ripple out (seriously, here in NY it's about to be 70 degrees on Christmas Eve). We are here to dive into the deeper portion of the starting pitcher rankings, and with so many names to drill through, well those numbers are going to start to stretch apart.
There are so many metrics and things that people can attach themselves to when it comes to pitchers. Some owners are going to look at a pitcher's strikeouts, their walks, their groundball rate, the percentage of sliders thrown, the velocity of their changeup compared to their fastball, the amount of innings they threw last year, the projected defenders that should be backing him up, the ballpark they play in, and so on. Each ranker, each owner, each projection system will weigh each of these factors differently. There’s plenty to look at here, so let’s get back to it.
Be sure to also check out all of our 2016 fantasy baseball rankings articles. We have rankings and tiers across all positions, for MLB prospects, and for dynasty/keeper leagues.
2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Starting Pitcher
Lance McCullers is an interesting guy to look at, as Kyle has him at 29, Brad at 34, he’s 41 for me, and Max buried him at 51. He didn’t have a conventional year by any means, being pulled up and thrown into the fire early in May (with great results). His first half ERA was 2.52, whereas his second half was 3.96. To be fair, most of the damage came in a horrible August start at Texas where he was shelled for six earned in one third of an inning. Outside of that he only had one start where he gave up more than three earned runs. He will now come into the year with a clear spot in the rotation and with an arm that has some innings under it.
Joe Ross is reportedly one of the top options to fill one of two vacant spots in the Nationals’ 2016 rotation, and it’s hard to imagine they don’t look his way. He’s got an electric fastball, pitches in the NL East, and looked just fine in his limited duty for the Nationals last year (5-5 with a 3.64 ERA in 76.2 IP). This must be why Max, Kyle, and I have him right around 40th in our rankings, but Brad has the haterade flowing, putting him at 89th. Perhaps he is the voice of reason here. Expectations might be too high for a guy who doesn’t have a spot in the rotation yet, for a guy who hasn’t pitched even half a year of major league ball yet. This ties in well with Steven Matz, who everyone but Brad has at around 40 as well (he has him at 64). You can certainly get a sense of our styles and leanings from our rankings.
Shelby Miller is another guy who has some separation between rankings. Max and I have him at 34 and 36, respectively, while Brad and Kyle peg him at 51 and 54. These rankings were made before Miller was traded to the Diamondbacks, but it’s interesting all the same regarding a guy who really grew last year. How much of it was genuine and how much regression should we expect? The answers from each of us are clearly reflected in the rankings. I can't speak for Brad and Kyle but I can see how the modest strikeout rate (7.50 K/9) and still too high walk rate (3.20 BB/9) is cause enough for some pause here (along with a 4.16 SIERA). I personally just really liked how he incorporated a cutter into his arsenal and saw his ground ball rate go from being in the high 30s all the way to 47.7%. Couple this with a jump in soft contact going from 16.4% to 21.3%. I think he still has room to grow, and right around 36 makes me feel as though the risk is worth the upside.
Who else might be fun enough to investigate here? Andrew Cashner is an interesting name, he has Brad and I pegging him right at 50, with Max high on him at 37 and Kyle low on him at 69. Let's look under the hood a bit at what might be driving the narratives. Okay obviously he finished with a 6-16 record, but we know that doesn't really speak to much. His strikeouts went up from a 6.79 K/9 (good) but his walks ballooned up as well (2.12 to a 3.22 BB/9...yikes). His BABIP went from .274 in 2014 to .330 in 2015 (it was .269 in 2013) and his strand rate was zapped, falling from 75.3% to 65.6%. So it looks like he certainly ate some bad luck, but he also created his own misfortune in loading the bases more. His FIP jumped from 3.09 in 2014 to 3.85 in 2015, and that's pretty much what I'm expecting for 2016. Cut down on those walks young man.
Taijuan Walker also draws the spotlight with Kyle ranking him at 44 and Brad pegging him at 70 (I have him at 56 and Max has him at 67). He had a healthy K/9 (8.33) and an acceptable BB/9 (2.12), but his HR/9 was a pretty darn high 1.33 (as evidenced by his xFIP being 3.82 versus a FIP/ERA of 4.07/4.56). He's young so there isn't a big sample size to draw on, but you've got to think that home run number stabilizes a bit, especially pitching in Seattle. He's got a vicious fastball and if he can improve on his changeup usage then that really be a solid "Year 2" leap for Walker.
Nathan Eovaldi has a range of 47-75, and while I'm checking in at 65 on him I'll probably bump him up a bit next month. The question with him is whether he can truly develop that splitter into an out pitch or not. I believe that introducing it really helped his soft contact rate go from 15.9% in 2014 all the way to 21.2% in 2015. His ground ball rate also went from 44.8% to 52.2%. That fastball is never going to really have a significant amount of movement, but if he can find something off speed to consistently pair with a fastball that he can locate and a catcher that can frame well in Brian McCann, he could look a lot more like his FIP of 3.42 from 2015 rather than his ERA of 4.20. Sort of like how we pointed out how removing Felix Hernandez's best start would result in a prettier picture, if you take away Eovaldi's worst start of the year (eight earned in two thirds of an inning against the Marlins) his ERA comes down to 3.75. The home park will never do him any favors, but I think he deserves some more love than he gets - though perhaps his stellar looking 14-3 record will prop him up in the wrong way.
There are tons of names to choose from, and if you have any further questions on anyone feel free to reach out to any of us via Twitter or catch us in the chat! As always, here are our complete rankings for reference:
Starting Pitcher Rankings for 2016 Fantasy Baseball
| Name | Brad | Max | Kyle | Nick | Composite |
| Clayton Kershaw | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Max Scherzer | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2.25 |
| Chris Sale | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3.25 |
| Jake Arrieta | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3.5 |
| Zack Greinke | 5 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 6 |
| Jose Fernandez | 7 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6.5 |
| Jacob deGrom | 10 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 7.5 |
| David Price | 9 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 7.5 |
| Dallas Keuchel | 6 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 8.75 |
| Madison Bumgarner | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10.5 |
| Felix Hernandez | 8 | 10 | 18 | 11 | 11.75 |
| Gerrit Cole | 14 | 14 | 8 | 13 | 12.25 |
| Chris Archer | 15 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 13.5 |
| Corey Kluber | 13 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 13.75 |
| Noah Syndergaard | 12 | 15 | 17 | 18 | 15.5 |
| Matt Harvey | 17 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 15.75 |
| Stephen Strasburg | 18 | 22 | 13 | 12 | 16.25 |
| Carlos Carrasco | 16 | 17 | 16 | 20 | 17.25 |
| Jon Lester | 19 | 21 | 19 | 25 | 21 |
| Cole Hamels | 24 | 24 | 21 | 19 | 22 |
| Yu Darvish | 25 | 19 | 22 | 22 | 22 |
| Sonny Gray | 22 | 18 | 24 | 24 | 22 |
| Johnny Cueto | 20 | 25 | 20 | 26 | 22.75 |
| Carlos Martinez | 21 | 27 | 23 | 23 | 23.5 |
| Tyson Ross | 23 | 23 | 26 | 32 | 26 |
| Danny Salazar | 27 | 26 | 25 | 27 | 26.25 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | 39 | 20 | 30 | 21 | 27.5 |
| Francisco Liriano | 26 | 30 | 28 | 29 | 28.25 |
| Marcus Stroman | 30 | 32 | 27 | 28 | 29.25 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | 28 | 28 | 33 | 34 | 30.75 |
| Michael Wacha | 37 | 29 | 35 | 30 | 32.75 |
| Adam Wainwright | 40 | 36 | 41 | 17 | 33.5 |
| Luis Severino | 29 | 31 | 43 | 33 | 34 |
| Scott Kazmir | 36 | 33 | 37 | 39 | 36.25 |
| Jose Quintana | 31 | 41 | 31 | 45 | 37 |
| Michael Pineda | 52 | 35 | 32 | 31 | 37.5 |
| Garrett Richards | 38 | 38 | 39 | 37 | 38 |
| Jake Odorizzi | 32 | 42 | 38 | 42 | 38.5 |
| Lance McCullers | 34 | 51 | 29 | 41 | 38.75 |
| Patrick Corbin | 43 | 46 | 34 | 35 | 39.5 |
| Shelby Miller | 51 | 34 | 54 | 36 | 43.75 |
| John Lackey | 33 | 48 | 56 | 44 | 45.25 |
| Steven Matz | 64 | 39 | 40 | 39 | 45.5 |
| Gio Gonzalez | 44 | 45 | 50 | 46 | 46.25 |
| Alex Cobb | 41 | 43 | 46 | 58 | 47 |
| Justin Verlander | 45 | 49 | 51 | 43 | 47 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | 42 | 44 | 45 | 59 | 47.5 |
| Yordano Ventura | 40 | 47 | 53 | 52 | 48 |
| Jeff Samardzija | 35 | 60 | 48 | 49 | 48 |
| Collin McHugh | 46 | 50 | 52 | 51 | 49.75 |
| Clay Buchholz | 53 | 53 | 49 | 48 | 50.75 |
| Joe Ross | 89 | 40 | 36 | 38 | 50.75 |
| Jaime Garcia | 48 | 52 | 64 | 40 | 51 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | 55 | 55 | 42 | 53 | 51.25 |
| Andrew Cashner | 50 | 37 | 69 | 50 | 51.5 |
| Raisel Iglesias | 60 | 58 | 47 | 47 | 53 |
| James Shields | 61 | 41 | 58 | 54 | 53.5 |
| Drew Smyly | 66 | 46 | 57 | 55 | 56 |
| Taijuan Walker | 70 | 67 | 44 | 56 | 59.25 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | 58 | 57 | 62 | 62 | 59.75 |
| Kyle Hendricks | 62 | 63 | 55 | 60 | 60 |
| Brett Anderson | 57 | 56 | 70 | 61 | 61 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | 54 | 54 | 72 | 64 | 61 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | 47 | 74 | 60 | 65 | 61.5 |
| Robbie Ray | 56 | 69 | 61 | 63 | 62.25 |
| Carlos Rodon | 71 | 68 | 59 | 57 | 63.75 |
| Andrew Heaney | 59 | 65 | 65 | 68 | 64.25 |
| Julio Teheran | 63 | 61 | 74 | 66 | 66 |
| Jason Hammel | 72 | 70 | 63 | 71 | 69 |
| Aaron Nola | 68 | 62 | 73 | 75 | 69.5 |
| Jimmy Nelson | 69 | 66 | 76 | 67 | 69.5 |
| Anibal Sanchez | 67 | 78 | 67 | 69 | 70.25 |
| Marco Estrada | 65 | 64 | 77 | 76 | 70.5 |
| Ian Kennedy | 77 | 75 | 78 | 72 | 75.5 |
| Alex Wood | 81 | 77 | 68 | 81 | 76.75 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | 86 | 91 | 66 | 70 | 78.25 |
| Kevin Gausman | 83 | 76 | 79 | 84 | 80.5 |
| Henry Owens | 88 | 71 | 91 | 74 | 81 |
| Trevor Bauer | 95 | 72 | 85 | 83 | 83.75 |
| Mike Fiers | 71 | 93 | 75 | 97 | 84 |
| Mike Leake | 84 | 80 | 87 | 88 | 84.75 |
| Ervin Santana | 80 | 86 | 99 | 80 | 86.25 |
| Jesse Hahn | 105 | 59 | 109 | 79 | 88 |
| Derek Holland | 73 | 85 | 97 | 100 | 88.75 |
| Edinson Volquez | 82 | 83 | 94 | 98 | 89.25 |
| Erik Johnson | 101 | 82 | 90 | 89 | 90.5 |
| Taylor Jungmann | 109 | 90 | 88 | 85 | 93 |
| Mat Latos | 112 | 95 | 82 | 86 | 93.75 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | 90 | 98 | 93 | 95 | 94 |
| Chris Heston | 106 | 87 | 101 | 82 | 94 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | 96 | 99 | 95 | 87 | 94.25 |
| James Paxton | 85 | 102 | 96 | 96 | 94.75 |
| Jake Peavy | 111 | 96 | 84 | 93 | 96 |
| Phil Hughes | 110 | 89 | 103 | 92 | 98.5 |
| J.A. Happ | 92 | 71 | 78 | --- | |
| Erasmo Ramirez | 94 | 80 | 73 | --- | |
| Nate Karns | 79 | 83 | 91 | --- | |
| Wade Miley | 74 | 97 | 92 | --- | |
| Kyle Gibson | 75 | 100 | 99 | --- | |
| Tyler Duffey | 78 | 81 | 111 | --- | |
| Yovani Gallardo | 91 | 88 | 102 | --- | |
| Zack Wheeler | 104 | 84 | 105 | --- | |
| Josh Tomlin | 87 | 101 | 108 | --- | |
| Chris Tillman | 92 | 103 | 115 | --- | |
| Rubby de la Rosa | 100 | 100 | 104 | --- | |
| Danny Duffy | 107 | 102 | 114 | --- | |
| Kris Medlen | 73 | 89 | --- | ||
| Drew Hutchison | 81 | 77 | --- | ||
| Rick Porcello | 76 | 98 | --- | ||
| Jesse Chavez | 86 | 94 | --- | ||
| Joe Kelly | 79 | 110 | --- | ||
| Daniel Norris | 97 | 104 | --- | ||
| Nicholas Tropeano | 93 | 112 | --- | ||
| Matt Shoemaker | 94 | 113 | --- | ||
| Jonathan Gray | 99 | 108 | --- | ||
| CC Sabathia | 108 | 116 | --- | ||
| Hector Santiago | 114 | 119 | --- | ||
| Wily Peralta | 115 | 105 | --- | ||
| Chase Anderson | 113 | 107 | --- | ||
| Matt Cain | 90 | --- | |||
| Jeremy Hellickson | 98 | --- | |||
| Matt Boyd | 102 | --- | |||
| R.A. Dickey | 106 | --- | |||
| Mike Foltynewicz | 106 | --- | |||
| Jorge de la Rosa | 107 | --- | |||
| Brett Oberholtzer | 116 | --- | |||
| Trevor May | 117 | --- | |||
| Doug Fister | 118 | --- | |||
| Martin Perez | 120 | --- |
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