RADIO
This is the fourth and final update to our outfield staff rankings. Once again, I was joined by colleagues Kyle Bishop, Bill Dubiel, Brad Johnson, Nick Mariano, Max Petrie, and Harris Yudin.
In case you missed them, you can see our updated March tiered rankings and analysis breaking down our thoughts for catcher, first base, second base, shortstop and third base. Let's cut the foreplay and dive right in.
Editor's note: Make sure to also bookmark our Fantasy Baseball Rankings Assistant. The draft prep tool consolidates all our staff ranks in one easy place, shows ADP industry comparisons, and identifies the rankings risers/fallers. Sort our rankings by positional tiers, AL/NL only, dynasty, points leagues, top prospects and more.
2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings Analysis: Outfield (Tiers 1-4)
Tier 1
While the first tier has baseball's two best hitters, it's not too interesting to discuss. You know who Trout and Harper are. I placed Trout ahead of Harper simply because he has been more consistent; as crazy as it sounds, Harper has more upside in my opinion. Just for eye candy, here are their 5x5 lines from last year: .299/41/90/101/11 (Trout) and .330/42/118/99/6 (Harper). In any event, you cannot go wrong with either barring injury. If you like to gamble, Harper is a fine choice ahead of Trout.
Tier 2
In the second tier, one addition should be Chris Davis who played 30 games in RF last year. Due to many not knowing he is OF eligible, you can likely get good value. Leaving out his 2014 - during which he did not have a Therapeutic Use Exemption from MLB for an Adderall-like drug and was also battling an oblique injury - he posted lines of .286/53/103/138/4 in 2013 and .262/47/100/117/2 in 2015. While his 2014 is a red flag, the upside is enormous and I value him around the same as Jose Bautista. The other under-ranked player in the second tier is AJ Pollock. His 162 game averages the past two years are .311/19/107/70/36, and he bested those numbers last year. His elbow is a concern, so make sure he is healthy as Opening Day approaches, but those numbers are spectacular.
Two players ranked a little too highly by my peers in the second tier are McCutchen and Springer. McCutchen's steals have declined from 27 to 18 to 11 the past three years. He has not hit more than 25 homers or cracked 100 runs or RBIs (in a lineup that is largely similar). While it's possible that he could have dropped off a bit last year due to an early injury he played through, it's also possible he is just enduring a bit of a decline. .300/23/95/95/10 is a slash line you could approach or possibly beat with Pollock, Betts, or even approach with Cain or Marte who will go much later. For Springer, I have trouble envisioning a player who hits for a high average with great power; if he cuts down on his high K-rate as he did last year, it seems he would lose some power as he did last year. And while he ran more than his rookie year, he still didn't nearly approach his minors numbers in terms of steals. Add in that he is coming off injury, and he is being rated a little too highly for my tastes.
Tier 3
In the third tier, two players I like slightly more than my peers are Carlos Gomez and Lorenzo Cain. Carlos Gomez had a down year last year battling an injury. At 30, he is unlikely to have a career year. Nevertheless, he has a 162-game average over the last three years of .276/24/94/80/36. The most encouraging sign from last year is that Houston let him run; he stole 10 bases in 41 games for them. In a good lineup, he is being undervalued. Lorenzo Cain has had an issue staying healthy, but he has shown speed (28 SBs each of the last two years despite averaging 137 games), the ability to hit for average (.301 and .307), and surprising power last year (16 homers in 140 games). While he is an injury risk, his batting average and steals provide a nice floor if healthy.
Tier 4
In the fourth tier, I am targeting Michael Brantley even though he is coming off injury. Brantley has a 162 game average the past two years of .319/20/90/101/22. Those numbers are an optimistic line for even Andrew McCutchen. With him continuing to beat his recovery timeline, an April return is looking likely and he's too good not to gamble on. Corey Dickerson, on the other hand, was not dinged enough by my peers after his trade out of Colorado. He has a career 1.085 OPS at Coors and a .695 OPS outside of Coors and is coming off an injury-riddled season. Matt Holliday is also ranked too highly. He's 36, coming off an atrocious and injury-plagued year, and he even showed a tick of decline in 2014. At his age, the upside does not appear to be there to offset the risk that the decline is real.
Lastly, while not fitting in one specific tier, Schwarber and Soler (and possibly even Fowler) take a hit from Fowler joining the Cubs. The Cubs now have at least four starting caliber outfielders - Schwarber, Soler, Heyward, and Fowler. Javier Baez has been playing some outfield as well. While Schwarber can play catcher too, barring a trade or injury, it is hard to find a clear path to everyday playing time for Schwarber and Soler at the very least. It is a situation to monitor as the season approaches.
Check back tomorrow for my late round targets.
Outfield Tiered Fantasy Baseball Rankings (March)
| Rank | Tier | Name | Brad | Max | Kyle | Nick | Harris | Jeff | Bill |
| 1 | 1 | Mike Trout | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 2 | 1 | Bryce Harper | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | Giancarlo Stanton | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 4 | 2 | Andrew McCutchen | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 3 |
| 5 | 2 | Jose Bautista | 8 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 5 |
| 6 | 2 | George Springer | 6 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 7 |
| 7 | 2 | Mookie Betts | 5 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 10 |
| 8 | 2 | A.J. Pollock | 7 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 4 | 6 |
| 9 | 2 | Starling Marte | 10 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 8 |
| 10 | 3 | J.D. Martinez | 9 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 11 |
| 11 | 2 | Ryan Braun | 13 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 10 | 9 |
| 12 | 3 | Justin Upton | 12 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 14 | 13 | 13 |
| 13 | 3 | Charlie Blackmon | 11 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 19 | 15 | 14 |
| 14 | 3 | Lorenzo Cain | 17 | 18 | 15 | 16 | 12 | 11 | 12 |
| 15 | 3 | Nelson Cruz | 18 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 9 | 16 | 16 |
| 16 | 3 | Carlos Gonzalez | 19 | 16 | 19 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 |
| 17 | 3 | Adam Jones | 15 | 20 | 21 | 14 | 23 | 19 | 15 |
| 18 | 3 | Jason Heyward | 14 | 17 | 17 | 20 | 16 | 22 | 21 |
| 19 | 3 | Carlos Gomez | 21 | 13 | 23 | 19 | 22 | 14 | 19 |
| 20 | 3 | Kyle Schwarber | 22 | 19 | 14 | 21 | 15 | 25 | 17 |
| 21 | 3 | Yoenis Cespedes | 20 | 21 | 20 | 17 | 17 | 20 | 20 |
| 22 | 4 | Yasiel Puig | 16 | 23 | 18 | 23 | 25 | 21 | 24 |
| 23 | 4 | Hunter Pence | 34 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 32 | 23 | 23 |
| 24 | 4 | Jacoby Ellsbury | 26 | 32 | 41 | 30 | 20 | 24 | 25 |
| 25 | 4 | Curtis Granderson | 29 | 33 | 28 | 27 | 28 | 30 | 26 |
| 26 | 4 | Alex Gordon | 23 | 31 | 29 | 35 | 26 | 35 | 29 |
| 27 | 4 | Kole Calhoun | 28 | 24 | 30 | 34 | 31 | 33 | 28 |
| 28 | 4 | David Peralta | 35 | 25 | 24 | 25 | 38 | 29 | 32 |
| 29 | 4 | Christian Yelich | 27 | 36 | 35 | 28 | 21 | 32 | 36 |
| 30 | 4 | Brett Gardner | 39 | 26 | 27 | 32 | 33 | 31 | 31 |
| 31 | 4 | Corey Dickerson | 25 | 28 | 32 | 26 | 37 | 54 | 22 |
| 32 | 4 | Adam Eaton | 37 | 37 | 26 | 24 | 34 | 28 | 39 |
| 33 | 4 | Michael Brantley | 56 | 27 | 37 | 40 | 27 | 17 | 27 |
| 34 | 4 | Joc Pederson | 41 | 41 | 25 | 37 | 24 | 34 | 35 |
| 35 | 4 | Matt Holliday | 43 | 30 | 31 | 29 | 43 | 45 | 30 |
| 36 | 4 | Gregory Polanco | 32 | 29 | 42 | 42 | 44 | 26 | 36 |
| 37 | 4 | Shin-Soo Choo | 42 | 35 | 38 | 31 | 30 | 39 | 40 |
| 38 | 4 | Billy Hamilton | 33 | 40 | 55 | 51 | 29 | 27 | 34 |
| 39 | 5 | Michael Conforto | 40 | 34 | 40 | 47 | 36 | 37 | 42 |
| 40 | 5 | Josh Reddick | 31 | 43 | 36 | 39 | 53 | 38 | 38 |
| 41 | 5 | Hanley Ramirez | 24 | 48 | 44 | 33 | 45 | 44 | 46 |
| 42 | 5 | Stephen Piscotty | 48 | 39 | 39 | 36 | 39 | 52 | 44 |
| 43 | 5 | Randal Grichuk | 49 | 44 | 34 | 38 | 54 | 43 | 45 |
| 44 | 5 | Matt Kemp | 36 | 45 | 45 | 41 | 52 | 49 | 41 |
| 45 | 5 | Jorge Soler | 63 | 38 | 46 | 49 | 40 | 46 | 33 |
| 46 | 5 | Dexter Fowler | 44 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 47 | 53 | 43 |
| 47 | 6 | Ben Zobrist | 30 | 52 | 33 | 56 | 55 | 64 | 50 |
| 48 | 6 | Delino Deshields | 50 | 49 | 49 | 46 | 41 | 60 | 53 |
| 49 | 6 | Ben Revere | 57 | 51 | 58 | 53 | 42 | 42 | 48 |
| 50 | 6 | Billy Burns | 38 | 54 | 48 | 59 | 50 | 55 | 55 |
| 51 | 6 | Kevin Pillar | 58 | 55 | 53 | 48 | 49 | 47 | 51 |
| 52 | 6 | Steven Souza | 52 | 56 | 47 | 45 | 46 | 56 | 61 |
| 53 | 6 | Gerardo Parra | 45 | 50 | 59 | 52 | 56 | 48 | 60 |
| 54 | 6 | Evan Gattis | 51 | 47 | 57 | 43 | 57 | 72 | 49 |
| 55 | 6 | Ender Inciarte | 68 | 46 | 56 | 54 | 61 | 51 | 47 |
| 56 | 6 | Wil Myers | 74 | 60 | 66 | 57 | 35 | 40 | 58 |
| 57 | 6 | Marcell Ozuna | 47 | 57 | 51 | 60 | 65 | 58 | 57 |
| 58 | 6 | Jayson Werth | 60 | 59 | 50 | 70 | 67 | 41 | 52 |
| 59 | 6 | Khris Davis | 46 | 62 | 54 | 55 | 58 | 62 | 62 |
| 60 | 6 | Melky Cabrera | 53 | 53 | 60 | 65 | 69 | 63 | 54 |
| 61 | 7 | Mark Trumbo | 54 | 78 | 73 | 58 | 59 | 36 | 74 |
| 62 | 7 | Aaron Altherr | 65 | 69 | 87 | 69 | 88 | 65 | |
| 63 | 7 | Colby Rasmus | 62 | 75 | 67 | 63 | 51 | 61 | 72 |
| 64 | 7 | Jay Bruce | 67 | 70 | 69 | 50 | 64 | 66 | 69 |
| 65 | 7 | Carlos Beltran | 70 | 67 | 64 | 62 | 70 | 59 | 66 |
| 66 | 7 | Odubel Herrera | 64 | 63 | 61 | 61 | 86 | 67 | 56 |
| 67 | 7 | Byron Buxton | 72 | 76 | 70 | 73 | 48 | 50 | 70 |
| 68 | 7 | Brad Miller | 59 | 66 | 52 | 71 | 71 | 71 | 76 |
| 69 | 7 | Cameron Maybin | 79 | 64 | 63 | 64 | 72 | 70 | 59 |
| 70 | 7 | Eddie Rosario | 69 | 61 | 68 | 78 | 68 | 68 | 67 |
| 71 | 7 | Aaron Hicks | 66 | 68 | 72 | 66 | 78 | 69 | 63 |
| 72 | 7 | Rusney Castillo | 75 | 58 | 65 | 72 | 89 | 57 | 68 |
| 73 | 8 | Danny Valencia | 61 | 65 | 71 | 68 | 80 | 81 | 73 |
| 74 | 8 | Denard Span | 73 | 73 | 88 | 76 | 60 | 65 | 71 |
| 75 | 8 | Domingo Santana | 71 | 71 | 62 | 74 | 66 | 76 | 87 |
| 76 | 8 | Brandon Moss | 76 | 77 | 77 | 67 | 74 | 74 | 64 |
| 77 | 8 | Nori Aoki | 77 | 72 | 82 | 80 | 62 | 75 | 88 |
| 78 | 8 | Kevin Kiermaier | 78 | 84 | 80 | 82 | 73 | 73 | 80 |
| 79 | 8 | Hyun-soo Kim | 55 | 92 | 75 | 77 | - | 85 | 92 |
| 80 | 8 | Marlon Byrd | 80 | 79 | 76 | 85 | 84 | 80 | 75 |
| 81 | 9 | Yasmany Tomas | 97 | 74 | 83 | 75 | 81 | 78 | 82 |
| 82 | 9 | Brock Holt | 79 | 83 | 78 | 86 | 94 | 91 | 79 |
| 83 | 9 | Derek Dietrich | 80 | 96 | 74 | 87 | - | 88 | 81 |
| 84 | 8 | Chris Colabello | 93 | 82 | 86 | 79 | 75 | 90 | 86 |
| 85 | 9 | Eduardo Escobar | - | 88 | 79 | 89 | - | 84 | 89 |
| 86 | 9 | Austin Jackson | 72 | 95 | 95 | 83 | 76 | 87 | 95 |
| 87 | 9 | Jackie Bradley Jr. | 96 | 97 | 85 | 88 | 77 | 77 | 90 |
| 88 | 9 | Nick Markakis | 87 | 91 | 94 | 91 | 79 | 93 | |
| 89 | 9 | Franklin Gutierrez | 95 | 100 | 91 | 81 | - | 79 | 91 |
| 90 | 9 | Leonys Martin | 94 | 93 | 96 | 94 | 63 | 93 | 94 |
| 91 | 9 | Mark Cahna | 98 | 89 | 84 | 109 | 83 | 86 | 78 |
| 92 | 9 | Andre Ethier | 85 | 87 | 89 | 90 | 99 | 83 | 96 |
| 93 | 9 | Dalton Pompey | 86 | 80 | 81 | 102 | 87 | 97 | 98 |
| 94 | 9 | Jarrod Dyson | 106 | 81 | 93 | 84 | 85 | 94 | - |
| 95 | 9 | Alex Rios | 88 | 90 | 102 | 98 | 96 | - | 84 |
| 96 | 9 | Avisail Garcia | - | 85 | 100 | 103 | 82 | - | 97 |
| 97 | 9 | Rajai Davis | 100 | - | 97 | 92 | - | 89 | - |
| 98 | 9 | Desmond Jennings | 99 | 86 | 103 | 100 | 90 | 92 | - |
| 99 | 9 | Josh Hamilton | 91 | 94 | - | 99 | 91 | 100 | |
| 100 | 9 | Anthony Gose | - | 102 | 98 | 105 | 93 | 96 | 77 |
| 101 | 9 | Preston Tucker | 107 | 99 | 90 | 97 | - | 83 | |
| 102 | 9 | Oswaldo Arcia | - | 105 | - | 107 | 100 | 82 | 85 |
| 103 | 9 | Chris Coghlan | 84 | 103 | 99 | 93 | - | 101 | |
| 104 | 9 | Michael Taylor | 89 | 102 | 92 | 108 | 95 | 98 | 99 |
| 105 | 9 | Adam Duvall | 90 | 104 | 106 | 101 | 92 | 99 | - |
| 106 | 9 | Coco Crisp | 92 | 106 | 107 | 106 | 98 | 95 | - |
| 107 | 9 | Rymer Liriano | 105 | 101 | 101 | 104 | - | 100 | - |
| 108 | 9 | Will Venable | - | 108 | 109 | 95 | 97 | - | |
| 109 | 9 | Nomar Mazara | 103 | - | 108 | 96 | - | - | - |
| 110 | 9 | Angel Pagan | 102 | 99 | 105 | 110 | - | - | - |
| 111 | 9 | Abraham Almonte | 104 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 112 | 9 | Seth Smith | 101 | 107 | 104 | 111 | - | - | - |
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