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Welcome to the fourth installment of our January ranking breakdowns! If you’re like us here at RotoBaller, you’ve been huddled around the stove awaiting that precious heat for a while now. While there are still some free agent dominoes yet to fall, we've seen quite the flurry of moves.
This round of rankings features seven of our experts. They are Brad Johnson, Max Petrie, Kyle Bishop, Harris Yudin, Jeff Kahntroff, Bill Dubiel, and Nick Mariano. Today we'll cover shortstop. Assume a standard 5x5 redraft league when reading.
Don't forget to also read the rest of our 2016 fantasy baseball rankings articles and analysis. In case you missed it, we've been churning out dynasty rankings, keeper values, and top MLB prospect rankings for the 2016 fantasy baseball season. Let's get to it.
2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings Analysis: Shortstop
Shortstop is a really exciting position heading into 2016. The position is headlined by a bunch of young names who seem poised to be atop the charts for the next decade. There are also quite a few players who readily offer that sweet power/speed combo out of the middle infield slot. Then you have those wily veterans sprinkled in throughout the ranks. For what it's worth, this round of rankings was submitted on January 13th, and we are operating in the context of a traditional 5x5 rotisserie redraft league.
Tier One is Carlos Correa land. He is the far and away #1 shortstop in 2016, a clear cut first round pick. He only played in 99 games last year and still hit 22 homers with 14 steals. He’s an extremely talented hitter who will deliver in all five categories out of your shortstop slot. Interestingly enough, Steamer has him logging nearly 200 more plate appearances but hitting only 21 bombs. Perhaps they see the 24.2% HR/FB rate coming down? I don’t see much reason for a huge correction there, he has the approach for it as evidenced by his good hard-hit rate (32.9%), so I'm all in on him.
Tier Two brings three more young guns to the party, and "old man" Tulo. Troy Tulowitzki is in a great offensive environment, but you are banking on his health and production to hold out for a whole season here. His potential and track record earn him a spot here, but his floor appears to be the lowest.
Xander Bogaerts spent his sophomore season cutting his strikeout rate down considerably (23.2% to 15.4%) and trying to square up the ball for solid contact rather than aiming for the stars (FB% down from 41.3 to 25.8). Be aware, his .320 average was fueled by a pretty hefty .372 BABIP, but with his batted ball profile and plus wheels, he should be able to maintain a BABIP around the .350s-.360s. Francisco Lindor’s power definitely caught me off guard last year, and I’m not convinced that he can really keep it up. The average and steals are still great, but don’t plan on 18-20 home runs out him just because he hit 12 in 99 games last year.
Tier Three houses three vets and a wounded Pirate. I’m the lowest on Ian Desmond for the same reason I didn’t like him last year, and it’s why teams are shying away from him now, that strikeout rate. Not important to us but relevant to potential playing time, he also had 27 errors as a SS last year, oy. At least he didn’t sign in San Diego, but I’m still not a fan.
Brandon Crawford more than doubled his previous career high for homers in a season last year on the heels of nearly tripling his previous HR/FB rate, but his average fly ball distance was ninth in the league, it’s not all smoke and mirrors. Jhonny Peralta’s first half was amazing after a strong 2014, but his second half (4 HRs, .243 average) was very “blah”. He’ll give you a solid floor in that Cardinals lineup, but don’t expect top numbers out of him. Jung-ho Kang will have an everyday spot in the lineup this year after being juggled around last year, but the bugaboo is how the recovery from a serious leg injury goes. I’m buying for the upside he already flashed, and I think he does even better with consistent playing time.
Tier Four brings those mid-late round guys whose range of outcomes include HR+SB totals around 30. Addison Russell is more power than speed, but he was only 21 last year and you’re hoping he cuts down on the strikeouts in his second year seeing major league pitching. Brad Miller joins a more aggressive Tampa Bay club where he should see consistent playing time at shortstop, and he could turn in a 15/15 season after posting 11/13 in around 500 PAs last year.
Eugenio Suarez is another guy with a small major league sample size who flashed power, hitting 13 home runs in 398 PAs. I’m a little worried due to his 188th place in batted ball distance, but the three names behind him are Charlie Blackmon, Ben Zobrist, and Mookie Betts, so it isn’t horrific news. Marcus Semien rounds out the group, and his 600 PAs should see him put up another solid 15-12-.250 type line.
Tier Five is a blender. Jose Reyes is just a complete dice roll at this point, you can either risk it and hope he doesn't face a lengthy suspension/deportation or just pass altogether. Elvis Andrus and Alcides Escobar are both established speed types who have decent averages, but Andrus will deliver more counting stats. Ketel Marte has strong upside thanks to his wheels and projected leadoff spot, but he needs to prove he belongs. Starlin Castro gets a fresh start and a good stadium to hit in amidst a strong Yankee lineup, but do note that his soft contact rate doodle-jumped from 16% to 23.2%.
Tier Six means you’re just plugging in and hoping to catch a heat wave. Trea Turner had my eye, but Dusty Baker’s penchant for veterans means that Danny Espinosa should have the SS job. Jed Lowrie has cheap pop (when he’s healthy). Erick Aybar will chip in 75 runs and 15-20 stolen bases with a .270 average. Alexei Ramirez is 34 and leaves Chicago’s offensive environment for San Diego’s, not ideal. “Mean” Jean Segura’s 2015 was a lot more 2014 than 2013, but he still tallied 25 steals, which will play.
As for the rest of the crowd, Asdrubal Cabrera now joins the Mets as the everyday second baseman and has averaged 15 homers in his past four seasons (and Harris loves him). J.J. Hardy has failed to crack 10 dingers these past two seasons, but reports on his shoulder are positive and 15-18 home runs doesn’t feel out of the question. Zack Cozart had an awful 2014, but showed a great approach at the plate in 2015 (nine HRs in 214 PAs, best BB and K rates of ML career) until he required surgery on his right knee after a slip. Eduardo Escobar is capable of double digit homers without hurting your average. Those are the guys I'd look to first out of the bunch.
Shortstop Tiered Fantasy Baseball Rankings (January)
| Rank | Tier | Name | Brad | Max | Kyle | Nick | Harris | Jeff | Bill |
| 1 | 1 | Carlos Correa | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | Troy Tulowitzki | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 3 | 2 | Xander Bogaerts | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 5 |
| 4 | 2 | Francisco Lindor | 2 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 5 | 2 | Corey Seager | 7 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 7 |
| 7 | 3 | Ian Desmond | 5 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 4 |
| 6 | 3 | Brandon Crawford | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 3 |
| 8 | 3 | Jhonny Peralta | 8 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 9 | 8 |
| 9 | 3 | Jung-ho Kang | 14 | 8 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 9 |
| 10 | 4 | Addison Russell | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| 11 | 4 | Brad Miller | 10 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 15 | 8 | 12 |
| 12 | 4 | Eugenio Suarez | 9 | 13 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 16 | 11 |
| 13 | 4 | Marcus Semien | 13 | 12 | 11 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 13 |
| 14 | 5 | Jose Reyes | 22 | 16 | 16 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 14 |
| 15 | 5 | Elvis Andrus | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 19 | 13 | 16 |
| 16 | 5 | Ketel Marte | 12 | 14 | 14 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 18 |
| 17 | 5 | Starlin Castro | 16 | 21 | 17 | 18 | 9 | 19 | 20 |
| 18 | 5 | Alcides Escobar | 19 | 17 | 21 | 16 | 22 | 14 | 19 |
| 32 | 6 | Trea Turner | 26 | 18 | 20 | 20 | 16 | 18 | 15 |
| 19 | 6 | Jed Lowrie | 17 | 19 | 18 | 19 | 26 | 29 | 17 |
| 20 | 6 | Erick Aybar | 23 | 23 | 22 | 23 | 23 | 26 | 22 |
| 21 | 6 | Alexei Ramirez | 24 | 24 | 26 | 25 | 21 | 20 | 28 |
| 22 | 6 | Jean Segura | 33 | 22 | 29 | 26 | 20 | 24 | 24 |
| 23 | 7 | Wilmer Flores | 28 | 25 | 27 | 29 | 28 | 27 | 21 |
| 24 | 7 | Jose Iglesias | 30 | 27 | 28 | 28 | 24 | 21 | 29 |
| 25 | 7 | Asdrubal Cabrera | 29 | 34 | 32 | 22 | 13 | 25 | 32 |
| 27 | 7 | J.J. Hardy | 18 | 20 | 33 | 21 | 40 | 23 | 33 |
| 26 | 7 | Eduardo Escobar | 21 | 29 | 25 | 30 | 32 | 30 | 25 |
| 28 | 7 | Jimmy Rollins | 27 | 28 | 19 | 32 | 27 | 28 | 34 |
| 29 | 7 | Zack Cozart | 20 | 32 | 23 | 27 | 39 | 32 | 23 |
| 30 | 7 | Andrelton Simmons | 31 | 26 | 24 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 26 |
| 31 | 7 | Adeiny Hechavarria | 32 | 31 | 30 | 24 | 33 | 33 | 31 |
| 33 | 8 | Jordy Mercer | 34 | 35 | 35 | - | 41 | - | - |
| 34 | 8 | Javier Baez | - | 30 | 31 | - | 25 | 22 | - |
| 35 | 8 | Didi Gregorius | 25 | 33 | 34 | - | 30 | - | 30 |
| 36 | 8 | Jedd Gyorko | - | 36 | - | - | 29 | - | - |
| 37 | 8 | J.P. Crawford | - | 38 | - | - | 34 | - | - |
| 38 | 8 | Jose Ramirez | - | 37 | - | - | 35 | - | - |
| 39 | 8 | Nick Ahmed | - | 41 | - | - | 36 | - | - |
| 40 | 8 | Jonathan Villar | - | 39 | - | - | 37 | - | - |
| - | - | Tyler Saladino | - | 40 | - | - | 38 | - | - |
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