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2016 Fantasy Baseball Tiered Rankings: Starting Pitchers, Part 1 (March)

 Our starting pitching rankings will be split into two parts. Today's edition will examine only the top five tiers of starters, as determined by our staff's composite rankings (which differ a bit from my own evaluations where noted). Using the composite rankings to guide discussion helps to highlight personal preferences while also providing a more balanced view of the players' values. These rankings are for standard 5x5 leagues.

You should adjust these rankings to account for your league-- in shallower leagues or formats with daily transactions, upside pitchers are worth investing in since you can replace high-floor, low-ceiling players from the waiver wire. In deeper leagues or those with very infrequent waivers, high-floor pitchers are more important, as the wire will likely be barren and it'll be a challenge to effectively stream pitchers.

In weekly leagues, so long as they aren't too deep, it often makes sense to target a few elite pitchers to head your rotation and allow the two-start streamers to serve as depth; it makes little sense to carry high-floor pitchers whose value will often be outweighed by streamers. With these tips in mind, we move onto the players themselves.

Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2016 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It's already loaded up with tons of great rankings articles and draft analysis. Aside from our tiered staff rankings for every position, we also go deep on MLB prospect rankings, impact rookies for 2016, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.

 

2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings Analysis: Starting Pitcher

Tier One

Hey look, Clayton Kershaw is the top selection! While I am in no way, shape or form saying that Kershaw is anything less than the top pitcher in the game, there are several candidates who are approaching his level in fantasy. With that being said, nobody is quite there yet, so Kershaw remains alone atop our rankings.

Tier Two

These are the big guns. I am lowest on Max Scherzer apparently, and I have to chalk it up to my new-found love for Jake Arrieta and my ongoing infatuation with Chris Sale. That's not to say I don't like Scherzer--he's one of the top strikeout pitchers in the game while maintaining a sub-3.00 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP. The 31-year-old ace is still in his physical prime, but I like to go with younger guys when drafting ace pitchers. Arrieta just turned 30 and has now been lights-out for two straight years, but Chris Sale's ability to utterly dominate hitters on both sides of the plate gives him the edge over both Scherzer and Arrieta.

Jeff, Brad and I all seem to be lower on David Price, and my reasoning is simple--Fenway ain't the Trop or Comerica. While it's true Price thrived in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre, I truly think he's due for some regression. Even his regressed stats will likely keep him in the top 10, but I simply like the upside of pitchers like Jacob deGrom and Dallas Keuchel more.

Tier Three 

There are still plenty of bona fide aces to be found in the third tier. As I previously mentioned, I love Dallas Keuchel's upside given his approach and potential on what should be a World Series-contending Astros team. Many so-called experts knock Keuchel over his lack of strikeouts, and while it is true he pitches to contact using a vicious sinker, he is no slouch in the arena of making batters miss. In his Cy Young 2015 campaign, Keuchel struck out 216 batters across 232 innings, good for an 8.4 K/9 rate--the highest of his career. At age 28, The Astros ace is still in his physical prime and should be poised to keep runs off the board and win ballgames with regularity in 2016.

Jeepers, one bad year and everybody throws Felix Hernandez away like yesterday's junk mail. The Mariners' ace will be 30 on April 8th, and I say he'll make his return to the top 10 in 2016. Recency bias can fool even the sharpest of analysts, and the stinging memories of his 31-pitch, eight-run meltdown on June 13th and a 10-run outing in mid-August certainly didn't help his statline. By pretty much every standard, 2015 was his worst campaign since 2008. However, that lack of production can pretty much be isolated to the second half of the season. Before the All-Star break, Hernandez posted a 2.84 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP across 117.1 innings--numbers that indicate he still has the electric stuff that has made him a perennial All-Star. I'm writing off 2015 and believing (praying) that King Felix puts the crown back on this year.

Tier Four

This is where things start to get dicey. I want to point out two veterans here--one that I'm high on and one on whom I'm low.

Adam Wainwright is clearly not the pitcher he once was. He will never again come close to striking out 200 batters, and I don't see him ever cracking 17 wins again. He will be returning off an Achilles injury that caused him to miss the bulk of the 2015 season, and that shouldn't affect his ability to pitch at all (he even came back briefly in relief last September/October). Waino is closer to "crafty veteran" status than "fantasy ace", as his game is now heavily reliant on exceptional control and pitching to ground balls, but there are several factors that should keep him in the SP3 category. The Cardinals are going to find a way to win 92 games, and Wainwright should still be able to lock down 13-15 victories. He plays in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and has a solid defense behind him, and at the end of the season he should have an ERA in the low-3.00s and a very solid WHIP. I say don't give up on @UncleCharlie50 just yet.

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Francisco Liriano, on the other hand, I'm avoiding. The former Minnesota phenom revitalized his career once he came to Pittsburgh, and should be the de facto number two in their rotation behind young flamethrower Gerrit Cole.  While Liriano does put up an above-average K-rate, he rarely goes deep into games--he only reached seven innings pitched 11 times out of 31 starts last season. This is a by-product of his high WHIP, which averages out to 1.24 during his three seasons in Pittsburgh. His K-rate has gone up in each of those three years, and by sheer probability I think he's due for some regression. Like Wainwright, he should still be a fantasy SP3 in 2016, but I don't like taking a chance on a guy who plays with fire early and often. Did I mention last year was his first healthy season since 'Nam?

Tier Five

I'll take some briefer looks here in an effort to get to more pitchers.

Damn if I don't love me some Yu Darvish. I'm entirely okay taking a risk on him in any draft if you have a DL spot available. He should be back my mid-May, and that gives him plenty of time to be an impact player for you down the stretch. He's averaged 11.2 K/9 in his MLB career--me likey.

You know what makes me nervous? Masahiro Tanaka's elbow. It's been held together with duct tape and Krazy glue since he came to the MLB, and I am entirely okay with letting someone else gamble on that arm.

The Yankee I am all-in on is Luis Severino. The 22-year-old righty was the ace the Yankees needed in 2015 (not the one they deserved), and he should be ready to rock right from the gate as the third option behind Tanaka and Michael Pineda. If (when) Tanaka's elbow gives out, I see Severino stepping up and becoming a dominant force in the American League East.

Patrick Corbin was dynamite for the Diamondbacks in 2013, and was poised to do it again until he succumbed to the dreaded UCL injury in Spring Training 2014. He came back in mid-2015 and actually pitched at a higher level than most predicted for someone coming off Tommy John surgery, especially in the control department. He should be a solid SP4 in 2016 if he can take another step in the right direction on the road back from his injury.

I traded away Jeff Samardzija in the preseason last year (for a package involving both Chris Archer and Josh Donaldson), and boy howdy did that work out. Shark was abysmal last year on every level, but I think the change to the National League and the more pitcher-friendly confines of AT&T Park can get him back on the right track. Roll the dice on Samardzija this year--it sure won't cost you much.

 

Starting Pitcher Tiered Fantasy Baseball Rankings (March)

Ranking Tier Name Brad Max Kyle Nick Harris Jeff Bill
1 1 Clayton Kershaw 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2 2 Max Scherzer 2 2 2 2 2 3 4
3 2 Chris Sale 4 3 3 3 3 5 2
4 2 Jake Arrieta 3 4 4 4 12 2 3
5 2 Zack Greinke 6 5 8 7 5 8 5
6 2 David Price 8 6 6 6 4 10 9
7 2 Jacob deGrom 13 7 5 5 10 6 6
8 3 Madison Bumgarner 5 9 9 10 8 11 13
9 3 Jose Fernandez 11 8 18 8 7 4 14
10 3 Dallas Keuchel 7 12 11 9 16 17 7
11 3 Gerrit Cole 17 11 7 15 11 13 12
12 3 Noah Syndergaard 10 13 10 16 15 12 10
13 3 Matt Harvey 16 10 15 17 6 7 17
14 3 Stephen Strasburg 14 19 12 11 9 9 18
15 3 Corey Kluber 9 14 14 13 17 16 16
16 3 Felix Hernandez 12 17 17 14 13 18 8
17 3 Chris Archer 18 15 13 18 14 14 11
18 3 Carlos Carrasco 15 16 16 12 21 15 15
19 4 Jon Lester 19 22 19 20 24 19 25
20 4 Sonny Gray 22 20 24 23 18 26 20
21 4 Johnny Cueto 21 23 20 27 19 20 23
22 4 Cole Hamels 25 21 21 19 23 24 21
23 4 Adam Wainwright 20 18 25 22 26 25 19
24 4 Carlos Martinez 29 24 22 25 28 21 22
25 4 Danny Salazar 23 26 23 21 31 22 28
26 4 Tyson Ross 24 25 30 29 22 23 24
27 4 Marcus Stroman 38 27 26 24 20 31 31
28 4 Francisco Liriano 30 32 28 28 27 27 36
29 5 Yu Darvish 26 33 31 26 36 49 30
30 5 Masahiro Tanaka 35 28 35 30 37 32 29
31 5 Jose Quintana 33 35 29 35 29 46 34
32 5 Jake Odorizzi 27 38 33 44 33 28 39
33 5 Michael Wacha 56 30 32 32 30 34 32
34 5 Jordan Zimmermann 45 31 37 34 25 53 27
35 5 Lance McCullers 39 50 27 36 42 29 40
36 5 Luis Severino 46 29 44 37 39 44 26
37 5 Garrett Richards 47 39 38 40 32 36 33
38 5 Scott Kazmir 61 34 36 39 38 37 49
39 5 Michael Pineda 48 36 43 31 46 40 37
40 5 Jeff Samardzija 31 40 46 47 34 35 35
41 5 Patrick Corbin 44 45 34 33 48 39 42
42 6 Steven Matz 42 42 47 41 45 38 44
43 6 Drew Smyly 36 42 57 43 40 33 60
44 6 Justin Verlander 50 49 51 45 49 30 46
45 6 Raisel Iglesias 41 51 41 46 44 48 51
46 6 John Lackey 34 48 56 48 50 50 55
47 6 Shelby Miller 65 37 54 52 35 61 38
48 6 Taijuan Walker 37 67 45 50 41 51 54
49 6 Yordano Ventura 32 47 53 53 56 58 48
50 6 Gio Gonzalez 63 41 50 51 52 47 45
51 6 Clay Buchholz 43 54 42 49 58 56 56
52 6 James Shields 54 44 58 58 53 41 52
53 6 Hisashi Iwakuma 40 60 39 55 54 60 58
54 6 Hyun-Jin Ryu 51 47 48 56 55 66 47
55 6 Joe Ross 89 43 40 38 51 57 57
56 6 Carlos Rodon 67 57 59 54 43 45 64
57 6 Collin McHugh 68 52 52 57 57 54 50
58 7 Wei-Yin Chen 28 55 73 60 60 52 63
59 6 Alex Cobb 62 46 49 67 59 71 41
60 6 Kyle Hendricks 57 61 55 59 62 42 62
61 6 Jaime Garcia 64 53 64 42 73 67 43
62 7 Eduardo Rodriguez 53 56 61 61 69 59 61
63 7 Julio Teheran 74 58 71 66 47 63 66
64 7 Andrew Cashner 52 59 72 68 65 72 59
65 7 Jason Hammel 59 70 63 74 83 73 53
66 8 Ian Kennedy 60 75 70 63 66 65 77
67 7 Nathan Eovaldi 69 74 60 62 76 70 68
68 8 Kenta Maeda 55 63 100 64 79 55 -
69 8 Aaron Nola 66 62 69 76 72 75 72
70 7 Anibal Sanchez 76 68 67 71 63 74 74
71 7 Andrew Heaney 84 69 65 70 80 68 65
72 8 Mike Fiers 58 79 74 104 61 43 84
73 7 Robbie Ray 73 65 62 69 88 76 71
74 8 Jimmy Nelson 78 66 75 72 75 77 73
75 8 Marco Estrada 75 64 78 78 74 78 76
76 8 Kevin Gausman 87 76 77 88 71 62 70
77 8 Alex Wood 72 83 68 84 68 79 79
78 8 Anthony DeSclafani 83 82 66 73 97 80 69
79 8 Mike Leake 88 78 86 86 64 82 85
80 10 Erasmo Ramirez 71 95 76 65 114 92 83
81 8 Trevor Bauer 99 72 84 85 106 90 67
82 11 Derek Holland 80 71 94 103 - - 89
83 10 J.A. Happ - 92 82 80 87 86 102
84 11 Taylor Jungmann 114 88 87 89 - 88 75
85 10 Nate Karns - 81 79 93 115 93 82
86 9 Henry Owens 93 94 90 75 119 91 80
87 9 Wade Miley 77 98 91 109 95 69 103
88 9 Yovani Gallardo 95 89 101 97 67 115 87
89 9 Edinson Volquez 86 84 97 91 96 111 90
90 9 Jake Peavy 116 97 83 95 99 87 81
91 9 James Paxton 91 103 96 96 90 83 99
92 11 Drew Hutchison - 111 81 79 - 94 107
93 9 Jerad Eickhoff 85 100 93 77 118 95 95
94 9 Jesse Hahn 110 77 117 81 78 112 88
95 11 Chris Heston 123 86 - 83 91 - 94
96 9 Mat Latos 118 96 80 87 102 96 92
97 11 Ubaldo Jimenez 94 99 92 107 98 - 93
98 10 Tyler Duffey 81 80 107 90 120 109 96
99 9 Ervin Santana 111 87 98 82 112 110 86
100 11 Kris Medlen - 73 88 124 86 102 116
101 12 Daniel Norris 100 93 126 111 70 85 109
102 13 Tyler Glasnow 135 64
103 10 Chris Tillman 96 103 116 112 84 89 106
104 10 Zack Wheeler 109 85 102 108 89 116 98
105 13 Adam Conley - - 106 113 - 84 -
106 10 Rick Porcello 70 122 95 110 93 104 115
107 10 Phil Hughes 115 90 103 94 101 107 100
108 11 Erik Johnson 107 104 89 125 - 100 91
109 10 Kyle Gibson 79 110 99 102 108 118 104
110 11 Jesse Chavez - - 85 101 109 113 108
111 11 Rubby de la Rosa 106 101 104 92 - 101 117
112 13 Vincent Velasquez - 124 112 99 - 81 120
113 13 Chad Bettis 104
114 12 Jonathan Gray 105 109 124 100 85 - 125
115 11 Josh Tomlin 92 102 108 129 - 98 105
116 13 Rich Hill 90 - 115 119 - - 119
117 12 Doug Fister - 114 - 98 103 120 -
118 13 Matt Moore - 116 - 134 77 - 118
119 13 Lucas Giolito 103 116  123
120 11 Joe Kelly 82 123 109 123 113 - 121
121 12 Nicholas Tropeano 97 - 121 115 - 108 124
122 10 Hector Santiago 121 112 118 126 82 106 110

 

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