Daily Divide: Week 15

Nathan and Matt each offer Week 15 cash game picks for every position, then the other insults or compliments those picks, as warranted. They hope their arguments debates provide enough information to make help people make sound decisions for their DFS lineups.

Nathan:It is good to have Matt back in the fold. hopefully his takes upon his return will be flaming hot and accurate.

You can follow Nathan Powell on twitter: @NPowell -- and recent birthday boy Matt Rittle on twitter @ffrittle. Matt: Thanks again to @FFAaroneous for filling in last week. Nathan and I disagree plenty this week, so let's dive into it. 

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Nathan’s DFS Picks for Week Fifteen

QB: Carson Palmer at PHI
When you get a matchup of arguably best wide receiver corp in the NFL against the secondary that has allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to wide receivers and 3rd most fantasy points to quarterbacks, it is a good idea to play the quarterback from the opposing team. This game projects as a shootout with an O/U of 51, tied for the highest of the week, with a team total of 27 for the Cardinals. Palmer has a safe floor with at least 20 fantasy points in each game this season. When I can get that kind of production in a plus matchup without paying exorbitant prices, I'm going to do it every time.

Stacking: John Brown is my favorite stacking option with Palmer this week for pricing purposes, but Michael Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald are also in play.

Matt: One of the league’s best passing offenses versus one of the league’s worst passing defenses. (For what it's worth, I prefer Floyd as a stack.)

RB: Theo Riddick at NO
I’ll admit that this is more of a contrarian option with many people going Denard Robinson for their cheap RB, or paying up a little more for David Johnson and many people also like Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate against the Saints, but my favorite way to get exposure to the game tied with Arizona/Philadelphia for the highest O/U at 51 is with Theo Riddick. Riddick has sneakily been the RB20 on the season while never really coming close to that price in DFS all season long. Riddick provides some nice lineup flexibility to go with a play that most won't be on, I like Riddick a lot this weekend. .

Matt: Riddick makes a bit of a “I want to prioritize other positions, but not entirely lose out at RB” style play. I admit I can’t really argue against this one, though I’m not sure I’ll be using him myself.

WR: Jeremy Maclin at BAL
Jeremy Maclin cooled off a bit last week with a 12 point PPR outing after a pair of 30+ PPR point games. I expect him and the Chiefs offense to heat back up this week against that terrible Baltimore secondary. Travis Kelce hasn't been getting as many targets as fans hoped, and Jeremy Maclin has been fed targets consistently with 9+ targets in 7 of 12 games and 30 targets in his last 3 games. The Chiefs are 7 point favorites with a team total of 24, I expect Maclin and the Chiefs offense to exploit the plus matchup early and often this weekend and I think Maclin has the highest upside of the mid tier wide receivers in DFS this week.

Stacking: Alex Smith is a nice floor play this week, but not sure I see the ceiling that I do with either Russell Wilson or Carson Palmer.

Matt: In other slates, I could really see turning to Alex Smith this weekend, though the elite QB matchups this weekend seem to make that moot. With Maclin, I’ll be honest...I’m never sure what to “mac of lin” (groan). He seems so hot and cold, and I’ve been completely unable to predict the timing of either. The targets and matchup are absolutely there, though, so as with my Riddick response, I can’t argue against this one.

TE: Jacob Tamme vs JAC
With Gronk still a questionable play, I am going back to the cheap tight end well this week with Jacob Tamme. Tamme has been getting consistent targets as the #2 option at WR/TE in the Falcons offense with 5 or more targets in 7 of his last 9 games, while that isn't the highest threshold in the world, Tamme doesn't need much more than that to live up to his price and I expect the Falcons to get Tamme more involved against a Jaguars defense that has surrendered the 4th most fantasy points to tight ends so far this season.

Stacking: Matt Ryan has been all sorts of terrible this season. He isn't a stacking option even against the Jaguars defense.

Matt: Tamme’s targets have been less consistent of late than previously thought. He’s probably as fine a cheaper TE play as you’ll see this weekend, but I’m a touch nervous about his floor in cash games..

 

Matt’s DFS Picks for Week Fifteen

QB: Russell Wilson vs CLE
After a season full of cheap quarterback success in DFS, this is seemingly a week to pick on the top-end QBs heavily, each with great matchups. Nathaniel wrote up Carson Palmer already, and I’ll name-drop Cam Newton (a real and fake MVP candidate) and Tom Brady (in the middle of a fantastic season, with the highest team total of the weekend). For my selection, though, I’ll opt to ride one of the hottest offenses and players of the last month, Russell Wilson. After throwing for only one touchdown in eight of his first nine games, Wilson has caught fire, throwing for three or more touchdowns in each of his last four games (and five touchdowns twice). He hasn’t finished lower than QB3 over that span, and has two finishes as the weekend’s top QB. Playing at home against a Cleveland unit that figures to be outclassed on both sides of the ball (SEA favored by double digits), Wilson should be able to put in plenty of work. There may be a slight blowout concern here, but Wilson should get his numbers in regardless.

Stacking: If Wilson keeps rolling, Tyler Lockett makes a “sneaky” stacking option, but may fall just outside the cash game conversation. Doug Baldwin has been the biggest beneficiary of this hot streak, and figures to have a solid floor and ceiling at this point.

Nathan: It is pretty "Dangerruss" to fade Russell Wilson at this point(okay that was terrible). I'd worry a little about how the offense moves without any sort of running threat, but this is at home against Cleveland so Wilson should be able to do just about whatever he wants.

Matt: The fact I want to slowclap you for “Dangerruss” is probably why we get along so well.

RB: DeAngelo Williams vs DEN
In games where he has played over 80% of the snaps, DeAngelo Williams has been fantastic this season. In seven such games he has finished as a top 5 RB four times, with his other finishes coming as RB10, RB31, and RB20. I don’t love the matchup against the tough Denver defensive unit, but after some consideration I have warmed up to DeAngelo Williams, and there are a few things going for him. This game takes place in Pittsburgh, not in Denver With Ben Roethlisberger at the helm, the Pittsburgh offense has been one 2015’s best units, a different scenario than an elite defense facing a mediocre offense. Vegas would seem to agree with all this, placing the PIT team team total at a respectable 24.5. I’d also note that Denver is slightly softer against the run than the pass. I nearly wrote up David Johnson in this space, as the Eagles love giving up fantasy points to opposing RBs almost as much as opposing QBs, and I think the two are more or less equal. In the end, though, I decided to stick with one of the best DFS RBs of the seasons.

Nathan: DeAngelo has been really good all season long, but against a tough Broncos defense, I'm fading the entire Steelers offense for DFS purposes.

WR: A.J. Green at SFO
It’s been an interesting year for A.J. Green, piling up numbers in good games, which has somewhat hid the number of average games he has had this year. He seems to have turned the inevitable corner, though, coming off back to back 100+ yard games, and riding a three game touchdown streak into Week 15. This increased consistency is supported in his seasonal numbers, as he was WR14 in PPR before his Week 6 bye, and averaging WR8 numbers since. The quarterback play isn’t stellar, and the secondary matchup is fairly neutral, but that’s where the negatives end for me. With Tyler Eifert questionable already ruled out, and Marvin Jones with a minus matchup, Green figures to be force fed targets this weekend. I try to give intellectual credit where I can, so I’d like to thank Chris Raybon from 4for4 who (may have been) the one who raised our awareness of A.J Green home/road splits. Even without his other positives this weekend, I would still arrive at the inevitable DFS conclusion: Death, taxes, and A.J. Green on the road.

Stacking: A.J. Green figures to have a nice game almost in spite of questionable quarterback play. Not trying to stack here.

Nathan: I know the AJ/AJ stack connected for a score last week and AJ Green on the road is money in the bank, but when I'm paying up for an elite receiver, I prefer the quarterback to have more than a few quarters of NFL experience.

TE: Greg Olsen at NYG
I don’t love a lot of tight ends this weekend. There are some cheaper ones that intrigue, but seem more suited for tourney plays than cash games. Daily Divide favorites Jordan Reed and Delanie Walker (are always in play, but) both face fairly bad matchups. So I arrive at the prospect of paying up for Greg Olsen this weekend. After an injury scare last weekend, he seems to be good to go this weekend for a tilt against a matchup that ranges from highly plus to elite, depending on which site you check. I won’t belabor this play, as it’s fairly obvious. Solid TE + very nice matchup + targets from MVP candidate QB + bad TE slate == here we are. .

Stacking: Cam Newton is always in play, and makes a terrific option this weekend, stacking or not.

Nathan: Olsen has been limited in practice which is really the only thing stopping me from playing him everywhere. Olsen will be doing Olsen things once again this weekend.
Matt: Wanted to end the column with a shout-out to #NarrativeStreet favorite this week: Antonio Gates. A long time favorite of myself, and many others, Gates is openly talking about wanting to play well in what may be his last home game in San Diego. Gates has been a long-standing favorite tight end of mine, and I'm not close to alone on that. We wish Gates and QB Phillip Rivers well this weekend, regardless of where they play next year.

Nathan: *plugs in Ladarius Green as my tight end write up for 2016 Week 1 DFS when Gates walks in free agency or retires*

Matt: Way to enjoy the moment in front of us Nathan.

 

Watch The Pricing, But We Also Like

Nathan likes: Russell Wilson, David Johnson, Denard Robinson, Calvin Johnson, Allen Robinson, Tyler Lockett, Doug Baldwin, Zach Miller

Aaron likes: Every top QB mentioned above, Matthew Stafford, David Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Alshon Jeffery, Eric Decker (Saturday night), Allen Robinson, Antonio Gates

 

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