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Last year around this time, I published a set of bold predictions for 2015. It was such an enjoyable exercise that I've decided to not only do it again this year, but get some of my colleagues in on the act. Over the next two weeks, our writers will be offering their most audacious projections for the 2016 fantasy baseball season. We'll see if anyone (including me) can best my 30% hit rate, or 30% "hilariously wrong" rate, from last time around.
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Bold Predictions for 2016
1. Miguel Sano and Byung-ho Park combine for 75 home runs.
The projection systems pretty much all peg the duo for 30 homers each, so your mileage may vary on how bold this actually is. But there are legitimate question marks surrounding both players. Sano’s power is undeniable, but can he cut down on his equally gargantuan whiff rates without sacrificing any of it? Park was a monster in Korea, and Jung-ho Kang’s success last season showed that players can successfully transition from the KBO to MLB. He may have similar contact issues to Sano, however, and he remains an unknown quantity until we see him go up against big league pitching.
2. Marcus Semien outearns Francisco Lindor in standard leagues.
In his first full season, Semien started and finished strong but faltered badly in June and July. He still managed to improve across the board from his rookie year, though, and only two other shortstops hit 15 homers and stole 10 bases. Lindor had a dozen of each in just 99 games last year, but it remains to be seen if the pop he showed was legitimate. His batted ball distance ranked just 241st of 284 hitters according to Baseball Heat Maps.
3. Anthony DeSclafani is the Reds’ best pitcher.
There probably isn’t a trendier “sleeper” this year than Raisel Iglesias. His hype train has jumped the tracks, sprouted wings, and is currently bound for the outer reaches of our solar system. No doubt the Cuban import is immensely talented, but DeSclafani was pretty good himself down the stretch last season. After making some adjustments to his pitch usage and approach, DeSclafani saw dramatic improvement in his strikeout and walk numbers. No disrespect to Iglesias, who is a legitimate breakout candidate, but the true sleeper in the Queen City is DeSclafani
4. Delino DeShields steals more bases than Billy Hamilton.
At the risk of beating a dead horse, I don’t think much of Hamilton. Blazing speed is only useful if you can actually get on base at a decent clip, and the Hamburglar hasn’t proven he’s capable of doing that. DeShields has, and he’s plenty fast himself (like Hamilton, he has a 100 SB season on his minor league resume). He only stole 25 bases last season, but was on pace for double that before a hamstring injury slowed him. DeShields is set to open the season as the Rangers’ leadoff hitter, so he’ll have plenty of opportunities for thievery.
5. Noah Syndergaard is the best pitcher in the National League not named Clayton Kershaw.
Syndergaard faces stiff competition here. There’s an argument to be made that he might not even be the best pitcher on his own team, and that’s before you consider the numerous other elite arms in the Senior Circuit. But Thor became the first rookie in MLB history to strike out over a batter per inning and post a K/BB above 5.00. If he can do a better job of keeping the ball in the yard this season, the sky is the limit.
6. Maikel Franco is a top-5 third baseman.
The top four players at the position are all arguably first-round talents, so Franco has his work cut out for him if he’s going to make a winner out of this prediction. He’s definitely got the talent to do so, however. Despite hitting in an anemic Phillies lineup, he piled up 95 R+RBI in only 80 games to go with his .280 average and 14 homers. His aggressive approach means he’ll never be an OBP darling, but his combination of contact and power is fairly uncommon. Six qualified hitters posted an isolated power above .200 and a strikeout rate below 16% last season: Jose Bautista, Manny Machado, Anthony Rizzo, Edwin Encarnacion, Albert Pujols, and David Ortiz. If Franco had made enough trips to the plate, he would have been the seventh.
7. Jacoby Ellsbury finishes outside the top 50 outfielders.
Take a gander at Ellsbury’s last few seasons and you’ll notice an awful lot of numbers trending in the wrong direction. He’s making less contact. When he connects, it’s of worse quality. He’s not getting on base as frequently. He’s running less often and less efficiently. Sure, he looked great before suffering a few leg injuries last year. But there’s the rub – Ellsbury will be 33 in September, he’s visibly slowing down thanks to age and a laundry list of injuries, and he’s missed a third of his teams’ games this decade.
8. Aaron Altherr has a 20/20 season.
8. Joc Pederson has a 30/20 season.
Apart from the second-half swoon that has many owners down on him in 2016, the biggest disappointment from Yung Joc's rookie year was a dearth of stolen bases. After averaging close to 30 steals per year in the minor leagues, Pederson swiped just four bases in 11 attempts last season. It's hard to imagine he'll be that lousy on the bases again; the real key to this prediction is whether he can stick in the leadoff spot long enough to afford him sufficient thievery opportunities.
9. Jonathan Schoop is a top-8 second baseman.
Schoop has fairly obvious flaws, mainly his allergy to walks and the amount of swing and miss in his game. But he also has something that few others at the keystone can offer, and that’s legitimate 30 HR power. Schoop may not have improved his plate discipline metrics, but he did make adjustments that support the sharp rise in his BABIP, as well as his line drive and HR/FB rates. Had he not missed nearly half the season with a knee injury, Schoop might be getting much more attention in drafts. Instead, he’s a complete afterthought. If he can keep his batting average from cratering, he’ll make owners regret that.
10. Sonny Gray finishes outside the top 40 starting pitchers.
There's no doubt that Gray is a good pitcher. In two-plus seasons and nearly 500 innings, he’s put together a 2.88 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. That ERA is the 10th best mark among qualified starters since his debut in 2013. Gray uses his friendly home park and a groundball-heavy approach to great effect, regularly outpitching his fielding independent numbers. Some pitchers can break FIP, and maybe Gray is just one of those pitchers. But his batted ball data doesn’t necessarily support that hypothesis, and his merely average strikeout and walk rates leave him with much less margin for error if his luck does finally turn.
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