RADIO
It’s easy to let your DraftKings FLEX spot be left up to the amount of salary remaining after you fill out the rest of the squad. That’s the ‘flex-by-default’ strategy. The purpose of this Week Twelve DraftKings DFS article is to help you avoid it. You can and should use the FLEX spot to strengthen and diversify your daily league lineups for Week 12 of the NFL season.
A couple of thoughts: 1) You don’t have to spend all the salary cap. A better player in a better situation may force you to leave a few hundred salary cap dollars on the table. Force yourself to roster the best lineup, even if it fails to use the whole cap. 2) As a scientist, I like to use players for which I can build a case based on multiple pieces of evidence. I look at things like opportunities, efficiency, opponent and game flow to start my research. I want as many players that are positive in all categories as I can fit. Having an idea of the players I want before I work with salaries helps me with #1 too.
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Week 12 DraftKings FLEX Options - Daily Fantasy Football Picks
Use this list as your flex cheat sheet; if a player is on here, there’s good reason to roster him in your last spot.
I assume that you have $6,500 or less to work with for this final spot on the roster. I also assume you’ll arrange accordingly so that the player with the latest game start is in the flex in case you should need to swap someone out.
Since most of us will play both Thursday and Sunday slates, I’ve broken the breakdown up by day.
Sunday DFS Slate
Safe Options - Week 12 DraftKings Lineup Picks
Rishard Matthews $5,800: At last the WR1 for the Titans is behaving as the WR1 for a team should. After a disappointing start, Matthews has come through with a high catch rate and six touchdowns since Week 5. Although his targets fluctuate more than I’d like (from around five to 13), the matchup with Chicago is the third-best for receivers, and I think he and Marcus Mariota are finally in sync enough to produce a big day for Matthews.
Lamar Miller $5,800: Miller has proven to be a matchup-dependent rusher this year, so the fact that he plays the Chargers this week bodes well for his fantasy production. He’s also got the advantage of playing them at home, where he’s been a full seven fantasy points better than on the road this season. The volume should be high and Miller could have his best game yet this Sunday.
Upside Options - Week 12 DraftKings Lineup Picks
Todd Gurley $5,700: I haven’t given up on Gurley yet, and while it wasn’t worth paying $7-8K for him a few weeks ago, I think he’s now in a range you can exploit. New Orleans’ defense is woeful at best, even at home, allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing backs. With the volume Gurley should see, I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets in the end zone once or twice this week.
Ted Ginn Jr. $3,900: Ginn Jr. was close to a really big day last week and did have a nice long TD catch early on vs. the Saints. Ginn Jr. is a red zone target Cam Newton likes, and this should be a high-scoring game in Oakland. He’s been surprisingly consistent over the past few weeks, at 9-15 fantasy points, but it’s Ginn’s two-touchdown upside I’m looking for in tournament lineups.
Value Options - Week 12 DraftKings Lineup Picks
Tyler Boyd $4,000: With A.J. Green out, Boyd stepped up and into eight targets, catching six of them including a touchdown from Andy Dalton. No one expected the rookie to be thrust into this primary receiving role so soon, but here we are. Although the Baltimore Ravens defense is one of the best in the league, they have shown a weakness against wide receivers, giving up 17 touchdowns through the air. Boyd is the safest value play I see this weekend.
Will Tye $3,000: The Giants are in Cleveland this week, the league’s best tight end matchup and overall one of the most favorable positions for fantasy. Tye doesn’t have the best catch rate, but Eli Manning is looking for him over the middle 6-7 times per game and he finally caught a touchdown last week. There are definitely sexier options on the Giants' offense, but for the price, I think Tye should exceed value pretty easily.
Thursday DFS Slate - Thanksgiving
Safe Options - Week 12 DraftKings Lineup Picks
Frank Gore $5,200: Gore has been super consistent all season long, and with Andrew Luck set to miss the Thanksgiving night game with a concussion, I expect the Colts to rely on him even more. Scott Tolzien is a wild card, yes, but I think Gore has shown enough versatility to take advantage of the fact that Pittsburgh has given up 10 rushing and four receiving touchdowns to opposing backs this season (third-most fantasy points).
Upside Options - Week 12 DraftKings Lineup Picks
Theo Riddick $5,400: Although Riddick costs more than Gore, I think his ceiling his higher. Frequently seeing around 10 targets in addition to 10-15 carries, Riddick is the kind of back that has found success against Minnesota, particularly in recent weeks. The Vikings have allowed over 120 rushing yards in three of the last four games, and are middle of the pack in terms of fantasy points allowed to running backs. Riddick is a better bet to score in the mid-20s come Thursday.
Value Options - Week 12 DraftKings Lineup Picks
Jason Witten $3,200: Witten is as much of a Thanksgiving tradition as turkey when it comes to DFS, we usually just have to pay more for him. That’s not to say he’s a lock to put up big numbers anymore; he has just one outstanding, 30-fantasy point game this year. Washington is a top-10 matchup and I, like Vegas, expect this to be a high scoring and competitive game. With 25 targets over the last three weeks, Witten should continue to be involved enough in a potent Cowboys offense to pay off this meager salary.
