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Last year, there were only three stand out rookie first basemen: Justin Bour, Travis Shaw, and Ben Paulsen. Usually, first basemen are established players who tend to hold onto their position for a long time, so it is rare to find a rookie ready to have a big impact at the position.
There are not a lot of standout first base prospects poised to have a big year in 2016, but there are a few names that fantasy owners could eventually pick up off the waiver wire closer to the middle of the year. Players like AJ Reed and Max Kepler likely will not open the season with their respective Major League ball clubs, but they could find themselves in starting roles by the summer.
Editor's note:Be sure to also head over to our fantasy baseball rankings assistant. This handy new rankings tool show you all of our staff rankings, player news, and 2016 player outlooks. You can easily filter, sort, and export all sorts of ranks - mixed leagues, tiers, prospects, dynasty formats, keeper values and more. It's all in one place, and all free.
Top 10 Dynasty Prospects: First Base
Here are the top ten first basemen for fantasy baseball in 2016:
1. AJ Reed (HOU, AA)
Stats: 237 PA, .332/.405/.571, 11 HR, 0 SB, 11.4% BB rate, 20.7% K rate
ETA: Early May
AJ Reed absolutely exploded onto the scene in 2015 and established himself as the best first base prospect in the minors. He displayed 35-40 home run power while also showing well above-average plate discipline. My dark horse candidate to win AL Rookie of the Year in 2016, Reed will not start the year with the Astros, but I expect by May the Astros will be done waiting for Jon Singleton to produce and they will turn to Reed to be their starter. Reed is probably not worth drafting as there is no guarantee that Singleton will struggle, but fantasy owners should add him off the waiver wire if Singleton shows signs of struggles in the early goings.
2. Max Kepler (MIN, MLB)
Stats: (from AA) 482 PA, .322/.416/.531, 8 HR, 18 SB, 13.9% BB rate, 13.1% K rate
ETA: Late May
Though he likely will not begin the year with the Twins, Max Kepler should be expected to have an impact on fantasy teams in 2016. Kepler does not have excellent power or blazing speed, but he should be able to provide 15 home runs and 15 stolen bases with a .280+ average if given full playing time. Kepler won’t be a superstar, but if he is promoted by the Twins, he would provide enough value to warrant teams adding him off the waiver wire.
3. Josh Bell (PIT, AAA)
Stats: 145 PA, .347/.441/.504, 2 HR, 14.5% BB rate, 10.3% K rate
ETA: Late May
Things were looking up for Josh Bell at the beginning of the offseason. Both Pedro Alvarez and Sean Rodriguez were free agents and first base for the Pirates appeared to be Bell’s for the taking. But then the Pirates resigned Sean Rodriguez and signed John Jaso, leading many to believe that Jaso, Rodriguez, and Michael Morse would split first base instead of Bell. But I expect that before long, that mediocre trio of players at first base will be replaced with the potentially explosive bat of Bell.
The 23-year-old switch hitter has not displayed much power, but has shown the ability to hit for an average well above .300 and scouts do believe that after a while, Bell will develop some pop. In all likelihood, Bell will not break camp with the team, but he should see an opportunity to take first base before the summer. Fantasy owners should not worry about drafting Bell, but fantasy owners should monitor the first base situation for the Pirates and add him in the event that those three other players struggle.
4. Tyler White (HOU, AAA)
Stats: 259 PA, .362/.467/.559, 7 HR, 0 SB, 16.2% BB rate, 14.77% K rate
ETA: September
I feel really bad for Tyler White because he had an outstanding 2015 at both Triple-A and Double-A, but AJ Reed just looks like more of an impact bat at this point. In all likelihood, Reed will be given the first chance to supplant Jon Singleton at first base and it would be unwise to expect Reed to struggle. If White were to be promoted and see some playing time, he could have some value for fantasy owners even if his role with the Astros is limited. Unfortunately for White, I don’t see him getting much of an opportunity for playing time until September.
5. DJ Peterson (SEA, AAA)
Stats: (from AA) 393 PA, .223/.290/.346, 7 HR, 5 SB, 7.9% BB rate, 22.9% K rate
ETA: September
DJ Peterson has the type of power that could have an immediate impact once he reaches the majors, but with both Adam Lind and Kyle Seager solidly entrenched at first and third, playing time will be hard pressed to find if not altogether impossible. He might have some moderate value in September as an occasional starter, but don’t expect much beyond that.
6. Cheslor Cuthbert (KC, MLB)
Stats: (from AAA) 438 PA, .277/.339/.421, 11 HR, 5 SB, 8.4% BB rate, 13.7% K rate
ETA: Opening Day
I would expect to see Cheslor Cuthbert starting the season with the Royals, but don’t expect him to get regular playing time at any point. Neither Eric Hosmer nor Mike Moustakas have missed more than 31 games in a single season since 2011 and I don’t see any reason for that trend not to continue. Even if Cuthbert was a starter this year and saw a full 600 PA, I would not expect him to produce much more than a .260 average with 10 home runs. He is a desperation play in most fantasy leagues.
7. Matt Olson (OAK, AA)
Stats: 585 PA, .249/.388/.438, 17 HR, 5 SB, 17.9% BB rate, 23.8% K rate
ETA: September
Matt Olson could be an impact power bat in the majors and will eventually be the starter at first base for Oakland, but 2016 is not the year for him. The Athletics acquired Yonder Alonso to add to an already long list of people who can hold down first for them. Olson would have to absolutely tear it up at Double-A and Triple-A to see starting time. I see him possibly having an impact for fantasy owners in September, but do not expect on any game-changing contributions.
8. Christian Walker (BAL, MLB)
Stats: (from AAA) .257/.324/.423, 18 HR, 1 SB, 8.3% BB rate, 23.0% K rate
ETA: September
Things were looking up for Christian Walker, but then the Orioles resigned Chris Davis and acquired Mark Trumbo (who is basically a more developed version of Christian Walker). Walker has 20 home run pop if he could ever start in the majors, but it does not look like that will happen this year. For fantasy owners, Walker is probably best off just avoiding.
9. Richie Shaffer (TB, MLB)
Stats: 88 PA, .189/.307/.392, 4 HR, 0 SB, 11.4% BB rate, 36.4% K rate
ETA: September
Richie Shaffer could hit 25-30 home runs if given ample playing time, but he is currently blocked by both Evan Longoria and James Loney and I expect him to start the year at Triple-A. Don’t expect Shaffer to see much playing time until rosters expand in September unless there is an injury.
10. Sam Travis (BOS, AA)
Stats: 281 PA, .300/.384/.436, 4 HR, 9 SB, 11.7% BB rate, 12.1% K rate
ETA: September
Sam Travis could probably have an impact right now if were to start in the majors, but with Hanley Ramirez and Travis Shaw likely to platoon starts at first base, there does not appear to be a path to clear playing time for Travis. Even when rosters expand, Travis would have to battle for playing time and I don’t see him winning that battle if the Red Sox are in the playoff hunt.
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