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Walking Again in Memphis: The Grizzlies Are Back

After a strong start to the season, last year's Memphis Grizzlies suffered a catastrophic series of injuries -- not only to all-star starters like Marc Gasol and Mike Conley, but also their backups Brandan Wright and Mario Chalmers -- leading to record setting number of 28 players who made an appearance for the Grizzlies. The Grizzlies still managed to limp into the playoffs led by veterans like Zach Randolph, an injured Tony Allen, Matt Barnes, and wait for it...Vince Carter. This year the Grizzlies have re-tooled and look to live up to the excellence they've shown over the last few seasons before the injuries struck.

 

Walking Again in Memphis: The Grizzlies Are Back

The Grizzlies organization opened up their checkbooks to build a great team for new head coach Dave Fizdale, doling out massive contracts to re-sign point guard Mike Conley and bring on board forward Chandler Parsons. While the injury concerns remain, they've build a serious contender. It's hard to count them out as possible "next team up" alongside the Spurs and Clippers, should the Warriors stumble atop the West.

In past years, the Grizzlies have cemented a defensive style of basketball.  Unfortunately they've lacked shooting. They're still not going to be the spaciest team possible, but Parsons could do a lot to stretch things out. Ideally, we'll see the Grizzlies use him in a lot of small ball four lineups where he's thrived in Houston and Dallas.  A move like to improve spacing would be a boon to the fantasy numbers for the entire Grizzlies offense.  The Grizzlies will look like a totally different team if they can keep three shooters with range on the floor more often, instead of trotting out Zach Randolph, Tony Allen, and Marc Gasol all at the same time.

Let's take a look at what's going on across their roster.

 

The Ball-Handlers

The big beneficiary of any increase in spacing by the Grizzlies will be Mike Conley, who is easily the best fantasy option on this team.  Conley is a solid shooter, has great vision and attacks the rim. He hasn't played since hurting his achilles, but it seems the organization has faith in Conley considering the massive payday he saw in the offseason. Conley's stats took a slight downturn in across the board last year. We know he was hurt and that will lead to some decrease in stats, but for the sake of the Grizzlies and fantasy owners, he needs to find a way to find the form he left in the 2014-2015 season.

As much as I hate to jinx a player, I think this will be a great season for Conley. I don't think the injury will hinder his abilities that much and I think he's worth a pick early in fantasy leagues. I think his FG%, which dipped to .422 last season, will return to at least the .442 he'd averaged in his career before last year. I don't see a drastic change happening but if the addition of Parsons allows the Grizzlies to better space the floor, Conley will have more space to operate and produce a FG% higher than his career average.

Conley's assists have hovered around 4-6 APG the past two seasons and with this added talent, that number could see spike into a more consistent 7-9 APG. That's are bold statements but this will be the first time we see Conley play with a healthy team since he was leading them to the playoffs two years ago. Conley has the potential to be an All-Star and is one of top-10 point guards in the league. If he is hanging around in the second or third round, he could compliment any lineup. He is a young guard who has the ability to be among the best, as long as he stays healthy.

With the release of Tony Wroten, it seems evident the Grizzlies are prepared to hand over their backup point guard / bench combo scoring guard role to some combination of rookie Wade Baldwin IV and much-improved second year guard Andrew Harrison.  After spending last year in the D-League, Harrison was signed to a multi-year contract days before the Grizz elected to cut bait on Wroten. While Harrison had a very strong 23-point debut against the D-League Select in Summer League play, he has since simmered down in the next two games letting Baldwin show his worth, going 2-10 and 2-14 from the field in his next two outings. Everyone is chucking up shots in Summer League, though, and Harrison has otherwise shown some decent decision making. The Grizzlies see something in him, and there's a decent chance he ends up finding a way into their rotation.

Meanwhile, Baldwin has scored at least 10 points in his 3 games of summer league. He has managed to find his teammates easily, attack the rim, and convert from the free throw line. Baldwin should probably be considered the guy who would take over if Conley goes down, but it is up in the air who ends up playing more off the bench in the meantime.  Rookies will be rookies, after all.

 

The Wings

Chandler Parsons is going to be the top fantasy option for the Grizzlies on the wing.  He will give them what they tried to get out of Jeff Green, except he will be a reliable shooter and not the most frustrating player on the planet.  Parsons can also find his teammates and conduct the offense. His defense can be lacking, but he has the size and speed to defend multiple positions, and he can hopefully elevate his game in the Grizzlies defensive culture. With Marc Gasol likely to be treated with kid gloves early on, Parsons will be relied on to be the primary scoring threat alongside Conley.

The other starting wing, Tony Allen, is a menace on defense, but The Grindfather has never been much of a fantasy player except as a steals specialist. His late season stretch of excellent scoring was more of a product of the fact that he was the only NBA caliber starter left on the team for stretches than it was any sign of a mid-thirties offensive renaissance.

If you assume Parsons sees time as a stretch four, that would also open up more minutes on the wing for bench players.  That includes lineups where Harrison and Baldwin will play alongside Conley and Allen, as well as opportunities for the ageless Vince Carter to continue doing his thing.

Another newcomer in James Ennis could also see a big opportunity.  After bouncing around the league (including seeing himself inexplicably waived by a Memphis team trotting out a bunch of scrubs late last year), Ennis had an extremely impressive stretch run with the New Orleans Pelican, averaging 31.5 mpg across 9 games and shooting .500 (including a scorching .480 from deep) with 15.9 points, 3.9 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 2.7 threes, 1.3 steals, 0.3 blocks, and 1.9 turnovers.  Ennis is also 6'7" and an athletic defender, so he could conceivably play a very small ball four role -- he looks like the direct backup to Parsons, and could play a big role if the injury bug were to strike Parsons again.

 

The Bigs

Marc Gasol was an All-Star center in 2014 and should be seen as such this upcoming season...in the minutes he's capable of playing. He passes incredibly well for a big guy, has a phenomenal jump shot, and defends well. He will contribute in every category if he is healthy. He has not been cleared to play, and while the Grizzlies seem optimistic he will, I wouldn't waste a draft pick on Gasol and think it's better to be safe than sorry and find another center. The Grizzlies need Gasol to be healthy if they want to be championship contenders and that means they'll take it easy with him. In other words, Gasol will not be as good a fantasy asset as before even when he is cleared to play -- he'll be rested often and his workload of minutes reduced.

Zach Randolph has been slowing down for years now, but he should still get an opportunity to contribute plenty of his grit and grind style.  While the Grizzlies might be better off avoiding having him on the floor alongside both Allen and Gasol, he'll see plenty of action as the lead scoring threat with bench units, and he'll be relied on help keep Gasol fresh.

Brandon Wright is another big man who is athletic and a strong defender who was unused due to injury last year. His offense is one dimensional, but when he can get involved he has produced very efficiently -- in his best seasons, his fantasy impact in FG% has been top tier.  If Wright is healthy and back to form, he could see spot starts when Gasol is rested, and makes an interesting waiver wire and daily fantasy play when that happens.

Deeper on the bench, you have JaMychal Green, Jarell Martin, and Deyonta Davis.  Late last year, Green was one of the few bright spots in Memphis, as he became one of the primary options for the Grizzlies and he accepted the role. His size and agility allowed him to score willingly and he got great playoff exposure. He has the skill set to be another perfect option to relieve the starters and score consistently coming off the bench.

Martin is another young player that excels in defense much like the rest of his team, but is limited in his shot range. He is a great defensive presence down low but if he wants to see more minutes, he needs to find his role offensively. Luckily he is only 22 so he has plenty of time to develop into a great player. If he mimicked the style of Z-Bo, he could turn himself into a young talent for Memphis. Finally, there's the 6'9 rookie Davis, a defensively minded big with great length and athleticism that will develop in Memphis.

Overall the Grizzlies have A LOT to look forward to. They made moves in the offseason that tailored to their needs and have the potential to be among the top this league. The Grizzlies have security blankets in Conley, Gasol, and Randolph, but needed more assets to a true contender. As much as I want to see Vince Carter to drop 20 every night, I hope Grizzlies will be able to show their team at full strength for the first time in 2 years, give the top dogs in the West a run for their money, and provide top tier fantasy production once again.

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