Week 14 NFL Matchups Analysis: Start/Sit for Fantasy Football Playoffs

Welcome to Week 14 of the NFL season and fantasy football action RotoBallers. This is a special week after the Thanksgiving festivities, so let's get focused for the home stretch and playoff run.

Each week of the fantasy football season, we will be breaking down each of the NFL matchups and providing you with some fantasy football advice and lineup recommendations based on matchups that we love, matchups that we hate, and some high-risk/high-reward players, as well.

Below, you will find our Week 14 NFL matchups & fantasy football start/sit analysis, which should help you prepare your lineups to win this week and in your playoff matchups. It’s essential to analyze the weekly NFL matchups to find lineup sleepers and potential waiver wire gems, while also avoiding those players who may turn out to be busts.

To read about the rest of this week’s NFL matchups, check out Start/Sit &  Matchups Analysis for Games 9-16 and our Week 14 Standard and PPR Rankings. And of course you can always stop by the RotoBaller chat rooms for any live advice you may need.

Cowboys @ Bears (Thursday Game)

Matchups We Love

Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys

Last week was horrible for Romo and his owners. On a day he's always played well, he played his worst of the entire season, and against one of the easiest opponents he could have faced. This week, similar situation, except there's no short week since he's coming off a Thursday game. The Bears defense is allowing the third-most yards per game and have allowed the most passing touchdowns in the league.

Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys

Understanding that the Bears have allowed so many yards and touchdowns, Bryant becomes an obvious beneficiary, especially since the Bears can manage to keep the game competitive.

Jay Cutler, QB, Bears, Brandon Marshall, WR, Bears, and Alshon Jeffery, WR, Bears

The Cowboys passing defense has shown some sparks of competent play, but the WR tandem they're about to face is unlike any they've faced this season. They lack the pass rush to hinder this team, and they lack the corners to keep Marshall and Jeffery covered all game long.

Matchups We Hate

Cowboys Defense and Chicago Defense

There's actually a very decent chance for either of these defenses to be a good play, but trying to guess which one would be difficult. Both QBs have been interception-prone throughout their long careers, and neither is playing his best game right now. Still, their offenses are completely able to drop 21 in a half. I'd look away.

Notable Players

Martellus Bennett, TE, Bears

Bennett's actually got a decent matchup this week against the Cowboys, who are allowing 60+ yards a game to TEs, but with how weak their corners are in comparison, it feels like Bennett might just be a second thought. Still, Bennett does have TE1 upside this week.

DeMarco Murray, RB, Cowboys and Matt Forte, RB, Cowboys

Both defenses came into the season with the expectation that they'd be among the worst run defenses in the league. Instead, they've been surprisingly just below average-- nothing to write home about, but it's a vast improvement. Neither RB is in danger of falling out of the top 15 RB scorers this week.

 

Steelers @ Bengals

Matchups We Love

Le'Veon Bell, RB, Steelers

The Bengals are ranked in the bottom eight against the run in all possible metrics, and Bell is one of the hottest running backs this year. Even if the Bengals do commit to trying to stop him, they're unlikely to make a dent in his progress.

A.J. Green, WR, Bengals

No one in the Steelers secondary is playing well enough to hold down A.J. Green this week.

Matchups We Hate

No one is out of play here.

Notable Players

Andy Dalton, QB, Bengals and Mohammed Sanu, WR, Bengals

With Dalton, it's not a matter of the matchup but of consistency. Pittsburgh should be a very easy to team to throw on this week, but he's got to make it come true. He's a risky option with potential QB1 upside, especially thanks to the receivers he has to throw to. Sanu, on the other hand, faces the difficulty of Dalton being unable to feed multiple receivers at once. Sanu's looking like he's going to be hard to see as more than a FLEX for the rest of the season, and there's still potential for him to fall out from there.

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers and Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers

These two face different problem this week.  It's not that the Bengals aren't beatable through the air, but they've been fairly efficient at just how badly they get beat. They're allowing 6.3 yards per play on each pass, which is tied for third-lowest in the league, while they're one of the easiest teams to run against. Not that Antonio Brown has anything to worry about-- he will get his like always (the Steelers are committed to keeping his five catches a game streak alive), but for all the other receivers like Markus Wheaton, Martavis Bryant and Heath Miller, there's a limitation to how good they could be this week because of how good Cinci's been at limiting the other WRs they've played. The Bengals are allowing less than the league average to all WRs in yardage, and have given up the fewest TDs in the league through the air.

Jeremy Hill, RB, Bengals and Giovani Bernard, RB, Bengals

The Steelers defense isn't one you should be scared of playing RBs against. Hill's got low RB2 value as his floor, and Bernard's looking more like an RB3 with each passing week, but both could be cogs in this week's game plan. However, Bernard's floor is way lower, thanks to the Steelers being efficient in stopping pass-catching RB types-- they're averaging just 34 yards allowed through the air to RBs.

 

Rams @ Redskins

Matchups We Love

There's no one in this game that I'd say is a must-play this week.

Matchups We Hate

Nothing is off the table either.

Notable Players

The Rams Passing Offense

This is an entire group of low-floor/low-ceiling players, where the QB isn't efficient enough to make use of anyone, and there's no one here who really stands out from the rest. Stedman Bailey is the only one of real interest-- he's been a hyped player since he came into the league, and fortunately for his owners, the Redskins pass coverage is horrible. Bailey's got some appeal in deeper leagues or as a DFS low-cost pick, but otherwise there's not enough to trust any of the passing options here.

Tre Mason, RB, Rams

Mason took over last week and likely solidified his position at the helm of the RBs here, but the Redskins are a better rushing defense than the Raiders, so expecting a game like last week would probably result in disappointment. Regardless, Mason does carry starting appeal, and the Rams are going to find ways to use him, even through the air.

Colt McCoy, QB, Redskins, Jordan Reed, TE, Redskins and DeSean Jackson, WR, Redskins

The Rams have a pretty average passing defense, along with an incredibly potent pass rush. That pass rush is where the damage could be done, since the Redskins offensive line has been exposed several times this season. If things do go wrong with Colt McCoy at the helm, they could go really badly. Jackson will see enough targets to gain at least FLEX relevancy, no matter what happens (you would hope, at least), while his partner Garcon has almost reached droppable status. It's worth noting Gruden's recent comments to the effect that he's worried about Garcon's usage in the offense. Reed faces a more daunting challenge than Jackson though, as he's up against a team that's allowing 41 yards a game to TEs, well below league average. McCoy has fed him with targets in his last two games though, so the volume might offset the lack of efficiency.

Alfred Morris, RB, Redskins

The Rams seem to be getting better against the run with every passing week, and the Redskins usage of Morris and teammate Roy Helu is too wild and inconsistent to really make either dependable. Morris has fallen to a low RB2.

 

Giants @ Titans

Matchups We Love

Odell Beckham Jr, WR, Giants

The Titans allow 80 yards per game on average to opposing WR1s. Beckham is the majority of the Giants passing offense, so he's going to get plenty of opportunity to shine.

Rashad Jennings, RB, Giants

If he's playing, he's going into a great situation. The Titans allow the most yards per game to opposing rushers and have the second-most touchdowns allowed on the ground. On the other hand, if Andre Williams ends up being the starter, he's also got a good situation, but his track record on the field doesn't show as much of an ability to make use of it. If Jennings plays, he's going to have RB1 potential.

Matchups We Hate

Everyone here has an opportunity to score, as both teams have been plenty underwhelming.

Notable Players

The Titans Offense

The Titans are at home, so that might benefit them in some way. Despite that advantage, the Titans offense is just not worth trusting. With Justin Hunter now out for the season, Kendall Hunter and Delanie Walker make up the rest of this group, and their inconsistency is making them hard to put into lineups. The RB situation is also dire-- everyone gets a share of carries and no one makes enough use of them to warrant a start. Simply put, I'm not willing to risk my fantasy playoffs on anyone in this offense.

Larry Donnell, TE, Giants

He's the only other passing options the Giants really have. He remains as a high TE2 because of the volume he receives.

 

Panthers @ Saints

Matchups We Love

Cam Newton, QB, Panthers and Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Panthers

Newton hasn't been lighting it up this season, in fact he's seemingly gotten worse. Many of the scouts I follow have mentioned that his body language indicates he's given up on this season.  Despite that, this Saints defense is really, really bad. I know the last time they played, Benjamin was held down to two catches for 18 yards, but he was targeted 10 times. Keenan Lewis, who has been much more inconsistent this season after having a nearly flawless 2013, will likely be handling him again, and you would hope that this time, Benjamin does you well.  The rest of the New Orleans defense, however, is very beatable, with no one in the secondary able to make a case to be the starter next year.

The Entire Saints Offense

Take your pick. Anyone. Hell, grab Travaris Cadet. No one's off limits here. The Panthers defense is bad in every single regard-- they can't pressure the QB, they have no corners, no safeties, no pass defense.  If it weren't for Luke Kuechly, this would easily be the worst defense in the league. Play whomever you want this week, because there's going to be ample opportunity (especially at home) for the Saints to put up 30 on the Panthers.

Matchups We Hate

Panthers Defense

With the entire Saints offense in the "love" category, the Panthers defense has little going for it here.

Notable Players

DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers and Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers

On a personal note, I like both of these running backs, but unfortunately in the offense and with the carry split, there's no way either of them can really be trusted to get you value. They have floors as low as RB4 and ceilings up to the high RB2 range, but in either case, you're left hoping for touchdowns since the volume won't be there.

Greg Olsen, TE, Panthers

The Saints one point of good coverage is at TE, where they're allowing only 37 yards per game. The last time they played, Olsen had 30 yards on three catches after getting four targets. Olsen is still a medium play-- he's a huge cog in the offense, but it's difficult to say he's better this week than someone like Larry Donnell.

 

Jets @ Vikings

Matchups We Love

Vikings Defense

The Jets offense can't move, and the Vikings offense has improved their defense with every passing week; they're climbing up the DVOA charts consistently and are now ranked 20th, including a ranking of 11th against the pass. Even if the Jets do run all game again, they lack the ability to hit the endzone.

Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Vikings and Charles Johnson, WR, Vikings

Patterson has fallen out of the depth chart and so in comes Johnson, a widely heralded physical talent with a lot of potential upside in his upcoming years (be sure to watch for him in next year's draft). Johnson was a preseason darling in the RotoBaller chats during his time on the Cleveland Browns before getting cut and re-joining Norv in Minnesota. Johnson has established himself as the top Bridgewater's targets, and they both face a secondary that has had just two good games all season. At home against the Jets after a short week, there's nothing to say Johnson doesn't have his serious breakout performance--- and if he does, Bridgewater comes along for the ride.

Matchups We Hate

Jets Defense

An obvious reason: there's no passing defense to speak of.

The Vikings Running Backs

Whether it's McKinnon, Asiata, Banyard, Tate, or even Peterson, the Jets defense has shut down too many RBs this year for any RB to be trusted against them.

Notable Players

Chris Johnson, RB, Jets and Chris Ivory, RB, Jets

There's definitely some interest in starting either of these two RBs, Minnesota's point of weakness is all in their attempts to cover the run, but the usage between the two has evened out after Ivory had seemingly taken the lead. Regardless, both players are lacking the volume and touchdowns to take them to the next level. They've got really low floors, and their ceilings seem limited to the low RB2 range.

 

Ravens @ Dolphins

Matchups We Love

Jarvis Landry, WR, Dolphins

I debated between whether Landry or Wallace would be the guy for this game, but recent history is all pointing toward Landry. The Ravens have one of the league's weakest secondaries, and they could be exposed easily and violently by the huge volume receiver that is Landry.

Matchups We Hate

Lamar Miller, RB, Dolphins

Miller's nightmare playoff schedule continues, and his lack of volume and the difficulty he faces make him hard to keep starting. Miller is becoming more touchdown-dependent down the stretch, and that's only going to continue.

Joe Flacco, QB, Ravens, Steve Smith, WR, Ravens  and Torrey Smith, WR, Ravens

On the other side, the Dolphins have been good against the pass this season-- so good that they're allowing the second-fewest passing yards per game. That's going to make this tough on all three players, as they've all been inconsistent this season, with only Torrey getting better down the stretch. This might be the game where Torrey is finally brought back down to Earth though, and all three of these guys have very low floors this week.

Notable Players

Justin Forsett, RB, Ravens

He's been a hot name this season, but the Dolphins (up until Monday's game) had been very good against the run. Unlike Miller's situation though, Forsett receives the volume he needs to offset the difficulty, so he could still be a solid RB2 this week.

Ryan Tannehill, QB, Dolphins and Mike Wallace, WR, Dolphins

Like I mentioned, it's hard to decide who it's going to be between Wallace and Landry, but someone's going to go off in this game. The Ravens secondary is just weak, and Tannehill is good enough to make them pay for it. It also helps that they're playing at home. With Wallace, it's going to be a risk whether he can get that one big play, but both have top-tier upside this week.

 

Colts @ Browns

Matchups We Love

Dan "Boom" Herron, RB, Colts

Herron's obviously the better back, and Richardson is unfortunately stealing carries, but the Browns defense is allowing the fourth-most yards per game in the league to opposing RBs, so Herron has a potential RB1 week in his hands, especially with the kind of scoring offense that the Colts have.

Isaiah "Future Greatest RB of All Time" Crowell, RB, Browns

I love Crowell, I really do. The Colts are allowing the third-most yards per carry to opposing RBs, and if you've read any of my weekly columns before, you've already gotten tired of hearing this: there're only two players on the Colts defense who can defend the run. Play with confidence.

Matchups We Hate

Browns Defense

The Colts are the top scoring offense in the NFL.  Enough said.

Notable Players

Josh Gordon, WR, Browns

Another guy I love is Gordon. Unfortunately, he's about to see Vontae Davis all game. Gordon's an otherworldly talent, but Davis is having an otherworldly season-- he's allowing a just 41 QB rating on the season. He has yet to give up a touchdown. He's allowing fewer than 30 yards a game. With all that, I want to put Gordon in the hate list, but it's just not possible. He gets targeted too heavily and only requires one good throw to get you a 10-point catch. He's risky, but the upside is very much there.

Andrew Luck, QB, Colts, T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts, and Coby Fleener, TE, Colts

Last week, I called Coby Fleener's big game, which i'm really proud of. Unfortunately this week, he isn't likely to see the same graces. Although the scoring offense he and Hilton are in should help make this matchup a lot more neutral than it is, they nevertheless face a difficult group of players to throw on. Fleener will see coverage from Tashaun Gipson and Karlos Dansby, two great coverage players, and Hilton will be matched up with Joe Haden for most of the day. Luck will likely still try to get the ball to these guys, but I wouldn't count on a big game from either one. In fact, that big game might come from someone else, like for example...

Donte Moncrief, WR, Colts

Moncrief is going to face the easier part of coverage, Buster Skrine. It's a really risky play, but I think there's a good chance he sees more targets than Hilton, especially since Hilton's going to be seeing too much of Haden.