RADIO
Welcome to Week 15 of the NFL season and fantasy football action, RotoBallers. It's time to buckle down and maintain focus for the home stretch and playoff run.
Each week of the fantasy football season, we will be breaking down each of the NFL matchups and providing you with some fantasy football advice and lineup recommendations based on matchups that we love, matchups that we hate, and some high-risk/high-reward players, as well.
Below, you will find our Week 15 NFL matchups & fantasy football start/sit analysis, which should help you prepare your lineups to win this week and in your playoff matchups. It’s essential to analyze the weekly NFL matchups to find lineup sleepers and potential waiver wire gems, while also avoiding those players who may turn out to be busts.
To read about the rest of this week’s NFL matchups, check out Start/Sit & Matchups Analysis for Games 9-16 and our Week 15 Standard and PPR Rankings. And of course you can always stop by the RotoBaller chat rooms for any live advice you may need.
Cardinals @ Rams
Matchups We Love
No one in this matchup is looking like a sure thing.
Matchups We Hate
Tre Mason, RB, Rams
The Cardinals run defense remains one of the best in the NFL. Mason will have a tough time finding running room.
Stepfan Taylor, RB, Cardinals, Robert Hughes, RB, Cardinals, Kerwynn Williams, RB, Cardinals and any other free agent running back signed between now and this game
The Rams defense as a whole has reached ridiculous heights in the last few weeks and their ranking in run defense has soared from week to week. I'm not buying any Cardinals RB on the road here.
Notable Players
The Rams Passing Offense
The problem is there's no one on this offense to depend on. Jared Cook could give you 70 yards or he could give you 24. Stedman Bailey might be targeted five times or none. if you want to gamble, this offense is up to you-- but the Cardinals defense isn't easy to work over.
The Cardinals Passing Offense
The same issue is here. As much as I want to believe in Michael Floyd, the targets and offense is just a struggle.
Rams Defense
A really high-upside play this week, at home against a Cardinals offense that doesn't score a lot. It's a good potential matchup.
Steelers @ Falcons
Matchups We Love
The Steelers Offense
The Falcons defense is all around one of the worst in the league. Antonio Brown, Le'Veon Bell, and Ben Roethlisberger should all be hitting the first tier in their respective positions this week.
Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons and Julio Jones, WR, Falcons
Julio's the king of the Falcons targets, and if he's healthy he's going to be another potential WR1 this week. Whether he's in or not though, the Steelers passing defense has been very, very weak, and it's getting weaker.
Matchups We Hate
Nothings out of the equation here.
Notable Players
Roddy White, WR, Falcons and Harry Douglas, WR, Falcons
If Julio's out, both players will get a significant bump. Roddy or Douglas might even make it into the WR1 group. Otherwise, they're both looking at a WR4 floor with WR2 upside. The Steelers defense is just very weak against WRs, and without someone to hog all the targets like Julio Jones, there's a lot of potential value.
Steven Jackson, RB, Falcons
There's not a lot for Jackson, but at least the Steelers are just pedestrian in defending opposing RBs. He could put up a decent 5-6 point floor, but going above 13 seems like a real stretch for Jackson.
Redskins @ Giants
Matchups We Love
Larry Donnell, TE, Giants
Two weeks ago, I picked Coby Fleener to have a huge game against the Redskins horrible tight end coverage, and he put up around 30 points, depending on your scoring. Donnell already had an incredibly big game against the Redskins earlier in the season, and it feels really likely to me that he'll have one again.
Matchups We Hate
Redskins Defense
It's just got too many holes to feel good about.
Notable Players
Odell Beckham Jr, WR, Giants
The Redskins aren't allowing that many yards per game to opposing WR1s, but Beckham gets all the targets that Donnell doesn't, so he's got the volume to be pretty much matchup-proof at this point. A WR1 game isn't out of the question on any given Sunday.
Rashad Jennings, RB, Giants or Andre Williams, RB, Giants
The Redskins run defense isn't playing very well. Whoever gets the start has a very clear path to RB2 numbers.
Alfred Morris, RB, Redskins
Morris has scored a touchdown or gained 100 yards in all but one meeting with the Giants out of his last five. With RG3 potentially coming back in at QB this week, Morris could be looking at an RB2 week. Unfortunately for him though, the Giants run defense has gotten better as the season has progressed, with both Jason Pierre Paul and Jonathan Hankins really hitting their strides. Low expectations are set, but a surprise is not out of the question. Morris is a bit of a risky play.
Whoever starts at QB for the Redskins, and the Redskins passing offense in general
Who knows? I don't. It's supposed to be RG3, but it doesn't really matter, QB2 numbers really feel like the ceiling here. A disturbing lack of consistency at this position has led to too many problems, and the loss of DeSean Jackson might hurt the abilities of this offense, but it won't matter, because the Giants defense is playing averagely against the pass. Although there's a potential big game for Reed, since the Giants give up a decent amount of yardage to tight ends per game, without McCoy at center, the volume might not be there for him. Everyone in this offense is a risk.
Dolphins @ Patriots
Matchups We Love
This is a matchup of two great defenses, there's nothing to love.
Matchups We Hate
Patriots Running Backs
Although the Patriots always find some way to turn a bad matchup into one of strength, this position is where the Patriots have no clear back to carry the load, and Miami has one of the best run defenses in the league. I wouldn't want to bet my playoffs on this. Even Vereen isn't looking like anything better than RB3.
Ryan Tannehill, QB, Dolphins, Mike Wallace, WR, Dolphins, and Jarvis Landry, WR, Dolphins
The Patriots have one of the best passing defenses in the league. In Week 1, the Tannehill/Wallace tandem exposed the Patriots, and knowing Belichick, he's probably seething to get his revenge and completely shut down this offense. It's not going to surprise me if he pulls it off. The Patriots are allowing well below league average to every WR position.
Julian Edelman, WR, Patriots and Brandon LaFell, WR, Patriots
Trying to figure out who's going to be playing well each week out of these two is nearly impossible. In PPR, Edelman still has value every week, but of all matchups, this is an extremely tough one. I wouldn't want to take my chances on either.
Notable Players
Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots
The first time he faced the Dolphins this year he was still hobbling. Since then, the Dolphins are #2 in the league in yards allowed to TEs at a ridiculously low 29 yards per game, almost half the league average of 51. Gronkowski's claim to fame isn't just his penchant for explosiveness, though, but also the volume of targets that he receives, so it's not going to be surprising when after this week, the Dolphins average yards allowed increases. He's unlikely to ever fall out of TE1 when healthy.
Tom Brady, QB, Patriots
Brady lives for revenge. He lives for beating those who've beaten and embarrassed him. I remember in 2010 when my Jets beat the Patriots early in the season by a score of 28 - 14. When the Patriots played us again later that year, the Jets lost 45 - 3. We got the last laugh in the playoffs though, but that's besides the point. The point is that Brady lives for revenge. He doesn't take losing lightly. The matchup screams bad for Brady, as the Dolphins are third in the league for passing defense based on yardage alone, but Brady doesn't care. I can't give you anything other than anecdotal evidence when I say that it's as likely that Brady is the highest scoring QB this week as it is that he's outside of the top 15.
Lamar Miller, RB, Dolphins
Miller is reaching touchdown dependency, since his yardage has slipped and his volume isn't high. Fortunately, for the first time in over a month, he's facing an easier run defense. Still, gameflow doesn't point in Miller's favor, and 12 carries with three receptions feels like the limit for him. He's a viable FLEX option, but not a high priority player this week.
Raiders @ Chiefs
Matchups We Love
Latavius Murray, RB, Raiders
At first I really didn't like this matchup, but as the season has gone on, it's looked like the Chiefs have gotten worse at defending the run. They had glowing run grades halfway through the season for their front seven, and now most of the front seven is negative. Murray is in place to receive the bulk of carries, and he might be hitting a high RB2 week.
Chiefs Defense
I don't care what happened last time. I say it every week, but Thursday games throw a real wrench into things as teams on short rest try to outsmart their opponent without overtaxing their main players. At best, that game was an outlier for how good the Chiefs defense actually is and how much better they should be than the Raiders offense.
Matchups We Hate
Derek Carr, QB, Raiders
On the road against the Chiefs isn't nearly as friendly as Thursday at home against them. Carr is much more likely to have two INTs than two touchdowns, and I'm sticking to that.
Every single wide receiver in this game
James Jones, Dwayne Bowe, Andre Holmes, Donnie Avery, Junior Hemingway. Who cares? These aren't two quarterbacks who give high fantasy value to any receiver on their team on a good day. The Chiefs have the easier side of the matchup, but they use their WRs far less than the Raiders, who have to face the league's second-best passing defense.
Notable Players
Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs and Mychal Rivera, TE, Raiders
Both teams here do well in defending opposing tight ends. Both are allowing less than league average, and both of these tight ends have been inconsistent in both usage and performance. While Kelce is still likely to find low TE1 numbers because he has yardage to depend on, Rivera is a much much riskier play against the league's #1 TE defense (allowing just 28 yards per game). I'd pass on Rivera, but the Raiders might not have many other options to pass it to.
Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs
Charles is where I was most wrong this season; as it turns out, he's really matchup-proof. That says everything. Don't bother with Knile Davis.
Texans @ Colts
Matchups We Love
Andrew Luck, QB, Colts and T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts
T.Y. Hilton has had all of his best games against the Texans. Hilton has only one game against the Texans in his career without a touchdown or 100 yards. This time though, it's different. TY's gotten so much better as a wide receiver and the Texan's CBs have been injured for the last few weeks. QB1 and WR1 seem very obvious.
Dan "Boom" Herron, RB, Colts
The Texans run defense isn't very good. Herron plays in a high-octane offense. The Colts will probably be ahead. Herron's a potential high RB2.
Arian "I'm A Vegan In The NFL" Foster, RB, Houston
He really is a vegan, no lie. The Colts run defense is still, as always, one of the worst in the league. Expect great things from Foster this week-- a potential top-scoring RB week is here.
Matchups We Hate
Texans Defense
The Colts are the #2 scoring offense in the NFL.
Andre Johnson, WR, Texans or DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Texans
Whoever is the #1 WR going into this week will be facing the shutdown coverage of Vontae Davis. Even if Johnson plays, I can't say for certain that Hopkins won't pull coverage from him, so I'm staying away. Vontae Davis is allowing the lowest QB rating in the league and has only permitted 27 receptions on 60 targets for 331 yards, about 12 yards a catch. That's roughly an average of two catches for 24 yards a game.
Notable Players
Coby Fleener, TE, Colts
The Texans coverage against TEs is actually pretty good. Less than the average across the league, and all positive on PFF. Still, Fleener plays in one of the best NFL offenses, and he should see enough targets to make him worth playing. With Dwayne Allen back in the lineup, I want to say Fleener's going to see his role decrease, but honestly I'm not a huge fan of Allens. I'm not counting on it. I don't see a reason for Fleener to fail to achieve high TE2 numbers, at worst.
Bengals @ Browns
Matchups We Love
Isaiah Crowell, RB, Browns
The Bengals have a bad run defense. 24th on PFF, 30th on FO, 27th in yards per game allowed, tied for 21st in yards per carry allowed, and 31st for touchdowns allowed. They were actually rated even worse on PFF and FO before Le'Veon destroyed them. Play Crowell.
Matchups We Hate
Johnny Manziel, QB, Browns
The Bengals have allowed the fewest touchdowns through the air this season. Manziel would have to have a hell of a rushing day to provide decent value at QB, and it just doesn't seem likely to me.
Notable Players
Josh Gordon, WR, Browns
Like said above, the Bengals have allowed the fewest passing TDs in the league. Gordon might get the volume, but he's also playing with a rookie QB. It's tough to figure out if the threat of Manziel's running will open up space for Gordon or if his throwing will make it hard for Gordon to find catches he can make. It's a risk, and against a tough opponent, I'd pass.
A.J. Green, WR, Bengals and Andy Dalton, QB, Bengals
The Browns are amongst the top eight in fewest yards allowed and fewest touchdowns allowed in the league, but A.J. Green is a top elite wide receiver who gets a lot of volume. He has value regardless of his matchup, and Dalton will always somehow find value in any game where he throws a touchdown to Green. There's some risk here, but it would be hard to see Green knocked out of the low WR2s. Dalton, on the other hand, might end up in the low QB2s.
Jeremy Hill, RB, Bengals and Giovani Bernard, RB Bengals
Bernard's out. I'm just going to put that out there-- he's barely worth rostering as more than Hill's handcuff. Hill, on the other hand, is trending way up. A beat reporter for the Bengals reported today that after speaking with Hue Jackson, he got a pretty clear impression that Jackson intends to use Hill more and more. Expect Hill to be the featured back and potentially hit RB1 numbers.
Jaguars @ Ravens
Matchups We Love
The entire Ravens team
Playing at home against the lowly Jaguars, the Ravens are looking like gods. They need to win hard to get out of a very tough division and into the playoffs, so I'm expecting them to try to blow out the Jaguars as much as they can. Despite Jacksonville's decent run defense, Forsett should have plenty of carries and opportunities to score to churn out a high-RB2 week, and as long as Steve Smith and Torrey Smith can catch their targets, they'll be looking at potential high-WR2 numbers. Flacco could see the QB1 promised land, too. The Ravens defense, at home, with the best pass rush in the league, against the most turnover-prone QB in the NFL? If you're not salivating, I can't help you.
Matchups We Hate
The Entire Jaguars Team
With Denard Robinson now out, there aren't a lot of names here that are startable. The Ravens do have a really bad pass defense, but they have an incredible pass rush. The Jaguars have an awful offensive line, a ton of injured receivers and no starting quality running back. Marqise Lee has become the king of targets, so there's some opportunity for a FLEX play out of him, but it still demands that the Jacksonville offense looks competent. If you're really desperate, he's worth taking a shot at, but unfortunately no one else is.
