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A lot of this NFL betting advice may change in the coming days as the league institutes its cutoff for players to opt out of the 2020 season due to COVID-19 concerns.
Still, football bettors should have an idea about their favorite sleepers and value picks ahead of time, so they know which NFL wagers to make if anything major changes. Also, it pays to know the possible permutations of team outlooks that could change on a dime if Player X says he's not playing this year, or whether we know borderline names will give it a go in the NFL regular season.
In my last NFL betting column, I talked about my favorite AFC Playoff Futures bets. I'll circle back to the topic for the other conference, the NFC, and share my top sleeper from there. To close out this topic, I'll add my sleeper Super Bowl LV winner selections for the upcoming season.
2020 NFC Playoff Futures and Division Finish Bet
Arizona Cardinals +650 to finish 2nd NFC West (+650), DraftKings
$100 bet pays $750
I was tempted to just go the distance and go for first place (+900 on FanDuel), but this is a promising alternative if you still, logically, back the San Francisco 49ers as the tops. The Seattle Seahawks’ acquisition of safety Jamal Adams has further strengthened the books’ expectations of their postseason trip, and the Rams probably are better than they looked last year.
However, Arizona’s passing offense will guide the ship, and Kyler Murray showed enough promise as a rookie to bank on a step forward. The arrivals of WR DeAndre Hopkins and RB Kenyan Drake jolt an offense that already had some intrigue (especially with third-year WR Christian Kirk) that’ll air it out often. The defense gets a boost from LB/S hybrid rookie Isaiah Simmons and the additions of DT Jordan Phillips, LB De’Vondre Campbell, and OLB Devon Kennard.
2020 Super Bowl Winner Futures Bets
No, I’m not selecting the Kansas City Chiefs or San Francisco 49ers, out of principle. Let’s focus on a larger ROI.
PROFITABLE CONTENDERS
Philadelphia Eagles (+2000), DraftKings
Pittsburgh Steelers (+2500), DraftKings
The Pennsylvania squads are getting a bit underrated. Given, the Steelers are in a tough division with the juggernaut Baltimore Ravens and possibly upstart Cleveland Browns, and the Eagles will surely tangle with the Dallas Cowboys for 1 (max 2) spots, but both teams are built for a deep postseason run.
The Eagles bolstered their secondary, chiefly by bringing in CB Darius Slay.
The Steelers get QB Ben Roethlisberger back, and while his age (38) keeps him in the risky tier, if he finds a way to survive the season, Pittsburgh has the offensive talent and elite offensive line to make a long playoff run. (It would be a better proposition if they can somehow land homefield advantage for most of the postseason, considering Big Ben’s shaky splits away from Heinz Field.)
Even with those questions, the offense has plenty of weapons on the ground (James Conner, Benny Snell, and exciting rookie Anthony McFarland) and through the air (JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson, James Washington and new arrival Eric Ebron). Plus, that defense is loaded, notably after trading for safety Minkah Fitzpatrick last year. (Steal, by the way.)
SLEEPER
Cleveland Browns (+4000), DraftKings
The Browns’ offense may determine whether this can play, but Kevin Stefanski’s system thrived in Minnesota last year, working from the run game outward. Leaning on Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt would be smart, though developing Baker Mayfield to be more efficient in his work with Odell Beckham Jr and tight end Austin Hooper (and, if they keep him, David Njoku). A smooth recovery these next few weeks for possession wideout Jarvis Landry (hip) would help, too. The defense has the talent to survive LB Joe Schobert’s departure.
More NFL Playoff Bets to Consider
If you have extra funds to throw bigger darts:
Indianapolis Colts to win AFC Conference (+1200), DraftKings
I’m high on the Colts this year, as explained in my AFC Playoffs column. I’ve added this as another option if you want to buy in strongly, too.
Detroit Lions to win NFC North (+600), FanDuel
Try this if Kenny Golladay and T.J. Hockenson appear ready for Week 1 following their COVID-19-list stays. (Credit to RotoBaller’s Frank Ammirante for the solid case. I faded them earlier this offseason, but for this ROI in a volatile division, it’s not a bad dart, especially with the drafting of RB D’Andre Swift and improvements made on defense:
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