RADIO
There are six games on the schedule on the NBA main slate tonight, with a tantalizing, warp speed paced Knicks-Pistons showdown serving as the lone matinee offering in the league. As evidenced by my rankings model below, the Hornets-Nets game projects as the top matchup to target for DFS contests tonight. The game figures to play very fast, it holds the highest implied total, and it features two teams that combine to allow the most fantasy points per game on the slate. The Wolves-Celtics, Lakers-Pelicans, and 76ers-Suns games all have varying degrees of fantasy appeal as well, while the Warriors-Wizards and Jazz-Mavericks trail the pack with their slow projected paces and low implied totals.
LeBron James leads the list of players who enter today with questionable tags, so keep an eye out for an update on "The King." Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Brandon Ingram, Talen Horton-Tucker, Hassan Whiteside, Dwight Howard, Daniel Gafford, and Jordan McLaughlin are also currently questionable. The Pelicans are the lone team entering tonight on the second half of a back-t0-back set.
This article will provide you with my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 3/27/22, with the slate locking at 5:00 pm CT. Remember to monitor NBA injury news and our live-updating NBA injury updates tool as the slate can completely change before lineups lock. As always, feel free to follow my Twitter (@RING_DFS) - I post about a variety of things but mainly NBA DFS with my K-Rate model. Let's get to it - good luck RotoBallers!
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DraftKings and FanDuel Guards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Terry Rozier - PG/SG, CHA vs. BKN ($7,100 DK, $6,400 FD)
His salary feels about right on DraftKings and simply too low on FanDuel, but Rozier's solid recent form and his top-of-the-board matchup against the Nets push him near the top of the priority list of plays on both sites for tonight's slate. He has put up at least 30 DK points in five of his last seven games, and he reached at least 46 DK points in two of those games. Even more appealing - he just put up 55.5 DK points against this same Nets squad a few weeks ago (on 3/8). His DK salary was $8,200 at the time, so we're getting a major discount here with the same favorable matchup. The Nets have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game over their last 15 games, and they're allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards over their last 30 games. Both teams play at a top-12 pace and Vegas expects this game to shoot out with a sky-high 239-point implied total. Scary Terry is a core play for me tonight.
Jordan Poole - PG, GSW vs. WAS ($7,700 DK, $7,700 FD)
Poole has been hot for a while now, embarking on his recent hot streak even prior to Curry being forced from the lineup with his foot injury. Dating back to 3/10, Poole has exceeded what he'd need for 5x value tonight (38.5 DK points) in seven of his last eight contests. He put up at least 45 DK points in four games during that stretch, so the potential for him to hit 6-7x value is definitely there. Poole leads the team with a 30.6% usage rate with Curry off the floor this season and his 1.11 FPTS/min rate trails only Klay Thompson by a hair. This isn't a great matchup to target for DFS lineups as a whole, but the Wizards have been extremely vulnerable to point guards lately, allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to the position over their last seven games.
Patrick Beverley - PG, MIN vs. BOS ($4,600 DK, $5,000 FD)
Boston is really stout at defending point guards and they're even tougher to face now that Marcus Smart is back in the lineup, but this is just way too cheap for the Wolves' scrappy starting point guard. He has had a few down games recently, getting shut down for 18.25 DK points against the Mavericks in his last game and posting 8.25 DK points in a game where he was ejected on 3/19, but he has otherwise been a solid bet for value down the stretch. He needs just 23 DK points to hit 5x value tonight - he has reached that mark in seven of his last 11 games. He posted games of 30, 36, and 42 DK points in that stretch, so he clearly has the ability to destroy his price tag tonight.
Luka Doncic - PG/SG, DAL vs. UTA ($10,300 FD)
Others to consider (FanDuel): D'Angelo Russell ($5,700), Tomas Satoransky ($3,500), Chris Paul ($6,600), Marcus Smart ($6,200), Gary Payton ($4,000)
Others to consider (DraftKings): Marcus Smart ($5,800), Jaylen Nowell ($3,100), Jaylen Brown ($7,900), Deni Avdija ($5,000), Tomas Satoransky ($3,800), Reggie Bullock ($4,200)
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DraftKings and FanDuel Forwards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Jayson Tatum - SF/PF, BOS vs. MIN ($9,600 DK, $9,400 FD)
Tatum is my favorite contrarian pay-up option on this slate, as a lot of people are going to go with the choice of Kevin Durant in an elite matchup against the fast-paced, defensively-challenged Hornets. Tatum had a down game last time out, notching just 37.75 DK points against the Jazz, but he only played 29 minutes in a blowout situation. Prior to that, he had put up what he'd need for 5x value tonight (48 DK points) in eight of his last 10 games. He had at least 64.75 DK points twice in that stretch, and he could be in line for another 60-burger with the matchup he gets tonight.
Despite a slight step up in defense this year (10th in defensive rating), the Wolves have been an appealing team to target opposing teams against in daily fantasy contests. They have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game to opposing teams this season and they play at the fastest pace in the league, so every game is a pace-up game for the opposing squad. That's a welcome change-of-pace *ducks* for the C's, who play at the seventh-slowest pace in the NBA. Additionally, the Wolves have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing small forwards, so the positional advantage is certainly there for Tatum to spike for a ceiling game here.
Jarred Vanderbilt - PF/C, MIN vs. BOS ($4,300 DK, $4,200 FD)
Vanderbilt's salary is far too low on both sites tonight. He went cold for a recent stretch and that dropped his salary to the point it's at now, but he has put up 21.5 and 30.5 DK points over the last two games, and he played just 23 and 26 minutes in those games, respectively. He typically plays right around 30 minutes as a key part of the Wolves starting unit, and while his 10.6% usage rate is gross, his 0.90 FPTS/min rate with Jaden McDaniels off the floor will work very nicely at his salary. This is one of the top game environments on the slate, and projecting Vanderbilt at 30 minutes makes him an elite value play on both sites. The Celtics defend the power forward position well and Vanderbilt isn't a player anyone is rushing to roster, so he could wind up being a very contrarian play on tonight's slate.
Draymond Green - PF/C, GSW vs. WAS ($4,900 FD)
Others to consider (FanDuel): Kevin Durant ($11,100), Jae Crowder ($4,400), Corey Kispert ($3,600), Dorian Finney-Smith ($4,600)
Others to consider (DraftKings): Kevin Durant ($11,000), Grant Williams ($3,600), Mikal Bridges ($5,700), Rui Hachimura ($4,400)
DraftKings and FanDuel Centers - NBA DFS Lineup Pics
Robert Williams III - C, BOS vs. MIN ($6,800 DK, $6,000 FD)
This one is pretty simple. Veteran Al Horford has already been ruled out, which vaults "Time Lord" to the top of projected values for tonight's slate as his playing time becomes much more secure in his absence. He is abysmal from a usage perspective, holding a team-low 11% usage rate without Horford, but his 1.05 FPTS/min rate is what we're looking at in conjunction with his expected uptick in playing time. The C's favorable matchup against the Wolves gives him even more appeal, as they play at an extremely fast pace and allow an abundance of fantasy points to opposing teams. They've also struggled to defend centers all season and they've been extra vulnerable lately, allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to the position over their last seven games.
*According to StatMuse, Williams has averaged 12.1 points, 11.1 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 0.8 steals, and 2.7 blocks in nine games without Horford this year. We'll take that kind of production all day and night.
Andre Drummond - C, BKN vs. CHA ($5,600 DK, $5,500 FD)
Others to consider (FanDuel): Deandre Ayton ($6,800), Mason Plumlee ($4,600), Rudy Gobert ($7,400)
Others to consider (DraftKings): Deandre Ayton ($6,700), Mason Plumlee ($4,400), Guillermo Hernangomez ($3,800), Daniel Gafford ($3,500)
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