Jay Cutler (QB, CHI) – 2015 Fantasy Football Sleeper

BALLER MOVE: Target as QB2, Streamer, or QB1 in Deep Leagues

CURRENT ADP: 138 STD, 163 PPR

ANALYSIS: Fantasy-wise Jay Cutler is, in a word, boring. He’s not good enough to be elite, but no longer young enough to be a rising star. Cutler is the guy who gets autopicked by someone who forgot to set his draft order.

It’s interesting though - Cutler is coming off one of the best fantasy seasons of his career. In 2014 he threw for 3812 yards and 28 TDs. That’s the second highest yardage total and best touchdown total of his career.

It’s true that he’s lost the coaching staff who brought him those numbers and yes, he also lost Brandon Marshall. But he’s getting a huge upgrade as wunderkind coordinator Adam Gase takes over the offense in Chicago. And Marshall’s numbers shouldn’t be hard to replace. Marshall only averaged 4.7 receptions and 55.5 yards per game - his worst averages since his rookie season. Free agent acquisition Eddie Royal and first rounder Kevin White (when he’s healthy) should be able to easily replace those numbers. Royal only did slightly worse last year.

Cutler offers worse ball security than skinny dipping in piranha infested waters, but in a strangely positive way. He spreads his mistakes out evenly over the course of the season, just like he does his positive plays. He threw two or more INTs in seven games last year but only once did he not throw at least two TDs that same game (he threw only one at Green Bay).

What this all adds up to is consistent, reliable points. That’s an ideal situation as a high level QB2 or even a QB1 with a strong team around him. Target him in the late middle rounds.