Rick Porcello (SP, BOS) - 2016 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers

BALLER MOVE: Target ~260

CURRENT ADP: 291.3

ANALYSIS: After finishing third in the Rookie of the Year voting in 2009, Rick Porcello has fallen off a bit. The New Jersey native has certainly had some problems keeping guys off the base paths, with a 1.359 career WHIP. Some of his problems in Boston during the 2015 season can be attributed to lousy defense, as shown by the difference in Porcello's 4.92 ERA and 4.13 FIP-- a staggering .79 points. With the Pablo Sandoval to Hanley Ramirez combo in 2016, that poor defense may have become even worse. However, Porcello got much better as the year went along in 2015. After the All-Star break, he was solid, recording a 3.53 ERA in 11 starts and went at least seven innings in 10 of those starts. Porcello goes deep into games, avoids injury and averages more than 30 games started per year, never starting fewer than 27.

He only managed nine wins last season -- the lowest total of his career -- but the Red Sox were garbage overall. It's almost a guarantee that his win total will increase in 2016, due to a bolstered offense and one of the strongest bullpens in the game. Porcello is one of the most reliable pitchers in the game and is very likely to improve upon his 2015 figures, making him a better bet than a handful of the 40 AL pitchers ranked before him.