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Week 11 Rankings Analysis: Nick Mariano vs. Industry Consensus

Sheesh, Jay Cutler was so bad! Why did I get suckered in? Despite that, I still finished #32 overall out of the 130+ ranked industry experts this week in a solid showing. I haven’t been ranked below #44 in any given week since Week 3, so we’re running well here. Sadly, most of the folks I commented on here last week did not pan out. Seriously, c’mon Jay. His failings also effectively KO’d Alshon Jeffery, before he KO’d himself from the next four weeks thanks to a PED suspension.

Chris Ivory didn’t deliver either, as he only touched the ball 11 times for 41 yards against Yeldon’s 12 touches. Here I was thinking Jacksonville would exploit Houston’s run defense, but they decided to lose the game instead. That said, we knocked down Matt Forte close to his true spot, and Martellus Bennett did have a 100-yard performance. Sometimes the results don’t come through despite a good process. You bounce back and fight on, so here we go.

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Week 11 Quarterbacks - Rankings Analysis

We begin by targeting the game that Las Vegas is currently pegging for the highest-scoring contest of the week, TEN-IND. This has all the makings of a shootout. You have two teams that rank in the bottom 10 for fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs, you have two offenses that can really move the ball, and the game is even a home dome game for the Colts – a place they perform much better in. It’s no secret that Marcus Mariota is red hot right now, and Andrew Luck is well-rested and prepared as the Colts come off of a bye. As a result, I have bumped both Mariota and Luck up three spots each to #3 and #4, respectively.

My cohorts also have Sam Bradford at #27 right now, currently outside of playable territory even in 12-team 2QB leagues. I have him at #22 for now, as I really like how Pat Shurmur’s new offense is running with high-percentage throws for Sammy Biscuits. Minnesota’s defense has started to show some cracks, and the Vikings aren’t going to generate anything with their running game. It’s on Bradford, so he’s an okay stream here for me despite the horrible matchup.

This also speaks to the QBs I’ve slipped behind him. Ryan Tannehill against a hungry Rams front is not ideal, even if LA can’t generate much themselves with Jared Goff at the helm. Jay Cutler looked lost, and is now without Alshon Jeffery when he has to face a rejuvenated Giants secondary. Brock Osweiler is playing like a mild-mannered Monstar zapped him of whatever talent he’s shown thus far. Cody Kessler might get pulled at halftime again. Carson Wentz travels to Seattle. So, Bradford feels better than those guys.

 

Week 11 Running Backs - Rankings Analysis

I have no qualms with the top 10, but things start to break down for me after that. My biggest riser is Rob Kelley (#13 vs. #19 consensus), who I thought ran very well against a bent, but unbroken Minnesota front seven that is still formidable. Kelley clearly has the keys to this backfield, though those in PPR leagues don’t get much from his minimal passing-game involvement. He faces the Packers, who were good at limiting RBs in the early going when they were close to full strength (and faced a several uninspiring rushing attacks), but have really faltered lately. I like how the stars align here, as Kelley could plow his way to a 100-yard game with a score or two on top.

Another guy rising 5+ spots is James Starks (#20 vs. #26 consensus), who reentered the picture in Green Bay last week and played on 71% of their snaps to the tune of a solid 4.7 YPC and a receiving touchdown. He now gets to face off against a Washington defense that is rated a lowly 30th in rushing DVOA per Football Outsiders. While I’ll grant that Washington has looked a little better than that lately, they also have faced some seriously incompetent rushers lately (sorry, Minnesota).

 

Week 11 Wide Receivers - Rankings Analysis

People might be too hyped to see Allen Robinson show some life, but I’ve got him seven slots down at #15 since he’ll likely be facing Darius Slay, who is currently ranked as the ninth-best cornerback according to ProFootballFocus (PFF Grade: 84.3). For as incompetent as Detroit’s defense has been, this could be a spot where Blake Bortles still struggles. If he does succeed, it will likely be through slot man Allen Hurns or his tight end Julius Thomas, who both have amazing matchups against slot DB Quandre Diggs (PFF Grade: 50.3) and a Detroit defense that has given up the most fantasy points to TEs on average thus far.

Another big riser is TD-magnet Rishard Matthews (#19 vs. #28 consensus), largely due to the rationale behind Marcus Mariota’s bump. While Tennessee should be able to do a lot of damage with the running game here, there should be plenty of points to go around here. Vontae Davis (PFF Grade: 68.3) is not the scary shutdown type that he’s been in the past, and Matthews (PFF Grade: 79.6) should be able to deliver yet again and extend his touchdown streak to four games and make it seven in his last seven games.

 

Week 11 Tight Ends - Rankings Analysis

The top tight ends all have absolutely incredible matchups, but some of you may be scrambling with Rob Gronkowski likely out for Week 11. Martellus Bennett is #5 for me, which is above the consensus though I expect this to adjust as the injury news firms up.

My big riser here is Washington’s Vernon Davis, who should be used quite a bit against the Packers in Week 11 if DeSean Jackson misses the game. I don’t get the sense that Jackson will return, and if he does it’d likely be in a limited capacity, which means they’ll lean more on Davis anyway. While Vernon has been hyper-efficient with his limited touches thus far – he’s caught all 14 of his targets over the past three games – he’s surpassed 50 yards in each of his last four games and scores two TDs in the process. Instead of attacking Green Bay with three wide outs and including Ryan Grant in the picture, Washington is best suited to deploy their base set with two TEs and demolish a Pack defense that has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to the position thus far.

This next one hurts to write because I love him, but Cameron Brate (#17 vs. #13 consensus) is likely in for a very down week in Arrowhead Stadium. Kansas City, namely Eric Berry, has been very good at smothering tight ends this season. Greg Olsen just turned in a five-catch effort for 39 scoreless yards last week, and that was the best performance a TE has had to date against the Chiefs. Brate is not Olsen. While it’s true that Jameis Winston needs Brate as a safety valve much of the time, this is a tough sell.

 

I’d rather talk more about the skill positions than include kicker or defense, as they are far less interesting to me. Feel free to send me a vitriolic message should you want them back, I’ll listen I swear.

 


Check out all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings. Staff rankings are updated regularly for all positions and include standard formats, PPR scoring, tiered rankings and dynasty leagues.




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