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Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): Valspar Championship

Welcome back RotoBallers. In this column, I will be providing you with my PGA DFS lineup picks for DraftKings, for the Valspar Championship. My goal as always is to help put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups.

The WGC Mexico Championship wrapped up on Sunday with Dustin Johnson hoisted another trophy. He became the fifth player in history to win his first tournament after being named the #1 player in the world. It was his 14th career PGA Tour win and his fourth World Golf Championship title putting him in second all-time behind Tiger Woods(14). This win didn't come quite as easy as the last one, however, as he was challenged all day long by Tommy Fleetwood, Ross Fisher, and John Rahm. He ended up making an incredible save from the fairway bunker on the 18th hole and two-putted his way to a one-stroke victory.

Editor's Note: Interested in RotoBaller's PGA DFS Cheat Sheet with expert picks, DFS prices, vegas odds, official world golf rankings, course history, past results and more advanced stats by PGA DFS Experts Seth Finkelstein and Chris Durell? Let us know here.

 

Reviewing Last Week's Picks

Dustin Johnson ($12,500) - Winner! Show -14 for a one-stroke win and picked up 119 DraftKings points(1st), six ahead of Justin Thomas. Seth has picked winners in back to back weeks now so I have some big shoes to fill.

Rory McIlroy ($10,900) - After opening with back to back sub 70 rounds, Rory shot 70/71 on the weekend and finished T7 with 91 DraftKings points(10th).

Justin Thomas ($8,700) - Thomas appeared to be DJ's biggest competition through three rounds after shooting 69/66/66 but couldn't get the birdies to drop on Sunday and with an Even par round finished T5 with 113 DraftKings points(2nd).

Tyrell Hatton ($8,300) - Hatton was able to sandwich a 67/68 in between two even par rounds for another impressive pGA Tour finish of 10th place. He also netted 80 DraftKings points(13th).

Byeong-Hun An ($7,500) - Had an impressive 66 on Friday but it was surrounded by a 73/71 and 76 on Sunday giving him a T48 finish with 65.5 DraftKings points(36th).

Louis Oosthuisen ($7,200) - Didn't really get it dialed in until Sunday where he shot 68 but finished T48 with 66.5 DraftKings points(34th).

Alexander Noren ($7,200) - Noren was another popular choice in the low tier that let us down this week with a T55 and 57.5 DraftKings points(49th).

Danny Willett ($6,700) - Just couldn't get it going in Mexico with zero rounds under par. He finished 69th with just 49.5 DraftKings points(64th).

JhonattanVegas ($7,100) - The highest finisher in our low tier last week finishing T38 with 62.5 DraftKings points(39th).

 

Valspar Championship

After another out of country World Golf Championship, the PGA Tour returns to the Florida swing with the Valspar Championship. The event started in 2000 as the Tampa Bay Championship and has gone through numerous sponsors, most recently Valspar who has been the event sponsor since 2013. After having 49 of the Top 50 players in the world last week, the field is much weaker at the Valspar with just two of the Top 10 and 13 of the Top 50 players in the world competing.

The host course from the beginning is Innisbrook Resort(Copperhead Course), a Par 71 that stretches 7,340 yards through tree lined fairways with no shortage of bunkers. The Copperhead course is annually rated as one of the hardest course on Tour and it comes down to the layout that challenges players to place the ball in the right spots. This can gain you strokes on the field if you can do so but miss those spots and you could easily be looking at bogey or worse. In a similar fashion as last week in Mexico, we will most likely see a lot of "less than driver" off the tee strategies. This will put a ton of emphasis on the second shot making Strokes Gained Approach very important this week. The course is also a bit different as it has five Par 3 holes, all of which are 195 yards or great. We can also have a look at guys who have a top long iron game.

We are back to a full field event so that means after two rounds the Top 70 and ties will move on to the weekend. Let's get into the picks.

 

High Cost Players - Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

Build a lineup with either: Justin Thomas ($11,900) or Bill Haas ($9,200)

Two different types of players but both come back to the Copperhead with some nice course history. Thomas finished T18 last season and T10 the year before in his first trip while Haas finished runner-up last season after a playoff loss to Charl Schwartzel and T14 back in 2014. Thomas comes into this week with the FedEx Cup points lead after picking up three wins in his first nine events this season. Haas has been extremely consistent making all seven cuts with six Top 25 finishes.

From a statistical standpoint, both players fit my model which is heavy on Strokes Gained Approach. Thomas ranks second in the field while Haas ranks 13th. Another key stat which should be looked closely is Bogey Avoidance and Thomas ranks 15th in the field while Haas is #1.

Both of their salaries have come up this week due to the weaker field but let that scare you off from rostering either of them.

 

Middle Cost Players - Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

Graham DeLaet ($8,400)

The Weyburn, Saskatchewan native has put his short game issues of 2016 in the rearview and is having an excellent start to the year. He has missed cuts at the Safeway Open and CareerBuilder Challenge but has three Top 10's and four Top 25 finishes in eight starts in 2017. He is known as a terrific ball striker and ranks Top 15 in the field when looking at my new stat, Strokes Gained Off the Tee + Strokes Gained Approach. The thing that has kept him from top finishes in the past has been his putter but believe it or not he ranks 15th on Tour in Strokes Gained Putting through eight events. His last three finishes at this event have been T17, T8 and T5 last year.

Martin Laird ($7,400)

Laird is not a pick I would be trusting in cash games as he just hasn't been consistent here at Copperhead over the years. He has made four of six cuts but just one Top 10 back in 2011 before the course was updated. This should keep his ownership down as many people will fade guys with poor or no course history. His form, on the other hand, is spot on as he hasn't missed a cut in eight events this season and has four Top 10 finishes, three in this calendar year.

J.J. Spaun ($7,200)

His price is just a few hundred over his season average and although this is his first trip to Copperhead as a PGA Tour professional, his game fits the course. He ranks 17th in the field in SG: APP + SG: OTT, he is third in GIR from 200+ yards and seventh in Par 3 scoring. He currently ranks fifth in the PGA Tour rookie rankings with seven made cuts in 11 events including Top 10 finishes at the Farmers Insurance Open and Waste Management Phoenix Open.

 

Low Cost Players - Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

Kyle Stanley ($7,000)

He is a GPP only play with a T53 and missed cut here in two events but has been a statistical darling so far this year. He ranks first overall in my combined SG: OTT + APP stat, Top 10 in Good Drive %, Driving Accuracy, Par 5 scoring, and is Top 20 in Bogey Avoidance, BoB% and GIR from 200+ yards.

Cameron Smith ($6,600)

He played Copperhead for the first time last year and finished T42 which isn't bad considering his mid $6K price tag. He has been very consistent to start the 2017 season, having made eight cuts in 10 events including a Top 10 at the Shriners. Statistically, he ranks Top 20 in SG: APP, Par 3 scoring and BoB%.

Bud Cauley ($6,500)

Another tournament play, which is common in the lower tier as most guys won't check all the boxes. Cauley is a Florida native who is very familiar with Bermuda greens but hasn't played here since 2013 where he withdrew. He also played here in 2012 for the first time and impressed with a T16 shooting eight under par. He missed four of his first five cuts this season but rebounded with a T3 at the CareerBuilder Challenge ad jas made four of his last five cuts.

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* Note - All stats I refer to in this article are from my own cheatsheet that weighs a large % of 2017 stats with a mix of 2016 stats as well. *


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