What's up RotoBallers. In this column, I will be taking a look at the main card for UFC 214. Our analysis will help you with your DraftKings MMA lineups. We will be keeping track based on picking winners and losers. We will also predict how the fight will be finished, but that will not reflect in the records (Justin's Record: 137-69).
MMA has one of the best sweats in DFS. Two fighters compete at a time with only one coming out as the winner. It's the best feeling in the world when you are watching the main event of a show and know you need a first round knockout to win the entire tournament. And nothing feels worse than when you need a first round knockout by Stipe Miocic to win thousands of dollars in a tournament, but when he lands that knockout punch, you realize that you placed 14th because Jacare Souza was too dominant in a previous fight. This was a serious scenario that I had to live through when Miocic won the Heavyweight Championship. Without anymore waiting, here are our DFS lineup picks and DraftKings analysis for the main card at UFC 214.
Editor's Note: Interested in RotoBaller's MMA DFS Cheat Sheet with advanced fighter statistics, deep analysis and detailed insights from MMA DFS Expert Justin Bales? Let us know here.
Jimi Manuwa vs Volkan Oezdemir
This is an interesting matchup. The winner of this fight could potentially get the next title shot against the winner of the main event. Manuwa and Oezdemir both possess elite power, but Manuwa is the more proven fighter. He is 6-2 in the UFC, but has only lost against elite competition. Oezdemir is only 2-0 in the UFC, but he’s coming off a highlight reel knockout of Misha Cirkunov. Oezdemir clearly has tremendous power, but with a split decision win against Ovince St. Preux in his debut, the Cirkunov fight was somewhat lucky. I still believe Cirkunov would win more often than now. This fight will likely be somewhat boring, as both fighters will feel each other out before unloading fight ending strikes. Ultimately, Manuwa has slightly more proven power against more proven competition, and he will be next in line to in the championship race.
Jimi Manuwa, TKO, 1st Round
Robbie Lawler vs Donald Cerrone
This fight has been scheduled for quite some time, and we finally get to see it. This will be Lawler’s first fight in nearly a year since losing his championship to Tyron Woodley. Cerrone, who is generally a quick turnaround fighter, will be fighting for the first time since a January loss to Masvidal. Both fighters were on winning streaks before their most recent losses, as well. Both fighters have the takedown decent to keep this fight standing, where neither fighter has a clear advantage. Cerrone is the slightly more accurate striker, while Lawler has slightly better defense. Lawler is also the more powerful striker of the duo. Both fighters possess elite finishing abilities, but each fighter is also fairly durable. I anticipate Lawler landing a few more power shots to sway the judges.
Robbie Lawler via Unanimous Decision
Cris Cyborg vs Tonya Evinger
Evinger will finally be making her UFC debut, but unfortunately for her, it will be again Cyborg. Cyborg is arguably the most dominant fighter in UFC history, although she has only had two fights. Evinger could pose more of a problem for Cyborg, as she is closer to her size than the other UFC competitors. Evinger also has finishing potential, but Cyborg has not lost since 2005, and this is not the fight she is going to lose. She’s simply too powerful with too good of striking. Cyborg is going to overwhelm Evinger early on, and while she may not get her first round finish, she will hand Evinger her first ever knockout loss.
Cris Cyborg, TKO, 2nd Round
Tyron Woodley vs Demian Maia
Maia does not receive the respect he should, and he has not been given any respect from Woodley. Woodley carried around a weighted backpack as a joke stating that he was training for Maia. He also stated that he knows he is going to win, so he can continue to work as an analyst at this time. Woodley has looked good as a champion, but nearly lost to Stephen Thompson two fights ago. Maia, on the other hand, has won seven consecutive fights. Maia has very little striking prowess, but he is an elite grappler that is comfortable eating punches on his way to the clinch. Once there, Maia grinds the fight out, while always looking for a choke. Woodley is an elite level wrestler, which will help him grapple with Maia, but if he feels comfortable enough to turn this into a grappling match, it will be hard to keep Maia off of his neck for five rounds. I expect Woodley to use his wrestling to keep distance while using his power to end the fight.
Tyron Woodley, TKO, 3rd Round
Daniel Cormier vs Jon Jones
This fight is going to depend on what type of Jon Jones we see. If he returns to his old form, he will be able to pick up the win. If he looks rusty, like in his fight with Ovince Saint Preux, he will not. Jones is the better striker of the duo, as he’s more efficient and comes with better defense. Cormier seemingly has the advantage in the grappling game, but Jones was able to stuff takedowns while landing his own in their first fight. Both fighters continue to claim they are better than ever, but that is often times talk for the press before fights. Jones will be able to use his reach in order to stuff takedowns on his way to reclaiming his championship belt.
Jon Jones via Unanimous Decision