What's up RotoBallers. In this column, I will be taking a look at the main card for UFC222. My analysis will help you with your DraftKings MMA lineups. I will be keeping track based on picking winners and losers, starting fresh for 2018. I will also predict how the fight will be finished, but that will not reflect in the records (Justin's 2018 Record: 16-11).
MMA has one of the best sweats in DFS. Two fighters compete at a time with only one coming out as the winner. It's the best feeling in the world when you are watching the main event of a show and know you need a first round knockout to win the entire tournament. And nothing feels worse than when you need a first round knockout by Stipe Miocic to win thousands of dollars in a tournament, but when he lands that knockout punch, you realize that you placed 14th because Jacare Souza was too dominant in a previous fight. This was a serious scenario that I had to live through when Miocic won the Heavyweight Championship. Without anymore waiting, here are my DFS lineup picks and DraftKings analysis for the main card at UFC222.
Editor's Note: Interested in RotoBaller's MMA DFS Cheat Sheet with advanced fighter statistics, deep analysis and detailed insights from MMA DFS Expert Justin Bales? Let us know here.
Cat Zingano vs Ketlen Vieira
If Zingano ever fought more than once every year, this would be somewhat of an easy pick for me. That is not the case, though, so I have no clue of what to make of this fight. Zingano is a powerful fighter, who has wins over top-level fighters, including Amanda Nunes and Miesha Tate. She has also only lost to top-level fighters, which you have to assume Ketlen Vieira is at this point. She is coming off a submission victory over Sara McMann, who has seemingly become lost in some grappling exchanges recently. I expect Zingano to keep this fight standing, where she is efficient and powerful. If she is able to do that, she will have the advantage over the younger fighter.
Cat Zingano, TKO, 3rd Round
Stefan Struve vs Andrei Arlovski
Stefan Struve and Andrei Arlovski are two of the most inconsistent fighters in the UFC, which makes this an extremely difficult fight to pick. With that being said, Struve has found some success recently, while Arlovski is 1-5 in his last six fights. Both fighters feature questionable chins to go along with fight ending power. I feel Struve should definitely win this fight, but he has proven to be such a hittable opponent that I question if he can deal with Arlovski’s power. Still, I think his size and reach are going to give Arlovski quite a bit of trouble. The edge goes to Struve, but not by a large margin.
Stefan Struve, TKO, 2nd Round
Sean O'Malley vs Andre Soukhamthath
Both of these fighters do a bit of showboating, but they tend to do it in different ways. Sean O’Malley loves talking trash before his fights, but is generally business once the door in locked. Andre Soukhamthath is often quiet in the media, but is known for knocking a fighter down three times with a jab before losing a decision because he did not capitalize on it. This fight essentially comes down to the power of Soukhamthath. O’Malley is the significantly more active fighter, and that will be the case throughout this fight. The question is whether or not Soukhamthath can land the power shot that puts O’Malley away or not. O’Malley has been extremely hittable early in his career, but he is young and gaining skills at a rapid rate. I expect O’Malley to utilize defense more in this fight, but still throw at a high pace. That will be enough to gain the edge on the judge’s scorecards.
Sean O’Malley via Unanimous Decision
Frankie Edgar vs Brian Ortega
This is one of the hardest fights that I feel I have ever had to pick. Brian Ortega is one of my favorite fighters because of his combination of skill and will to finish the fight. Frankie Edgar is no slouch either, winning seven of his last eight fights. Ortega is a fighter that is willing to give rounds away in hopes of finding a submission or knockout at some point throughout the fight. He has finished every fight in the UFC, and showed that he does not need the fight to hit the ground to find a submission. He is arguably the most impressive submission artist I have ever seen, but he is facing a fighter that knows exactly what Ortega’s game plan is. Edgar has never been submitted, or knocked out for that matter. Edgar should have no problems out-pointing Ortega on the feet, and I doubt Edgar is going to play the grappling game this weekend. As long as Edgar can stay out of the grasp of his opponent, which is easier said than done, I expect him to pick up the win.
Frankie Edgar via Unanimous Decision
Cris Cyborg vs Yana Kunitskaya
This is a throw-in fight to make the PPV have a title fight. Yana Kunitskaya should not truthfully be fighting for this title, and she has a very small chance of winning. She is not a counterstriker, but rather tends to pressure her opponents, while mixing in grappling exchanges. Pressure does not work against Cyborg, as he has the ability to “out-pressure” anyone she is up against. She is the crisper striker with more power, and the result is simply another formality.
Cris Cyborg, TKO, 1st Round