Marco Estrada (SP, TOR) - Week 1 Waiver Wire Pickups

BALLER MOVE: Add in Deeper Leagues

OWNED IN: 29% of leagues

ANALYSIS: To most folks, Estrada’s poor 2017 season just confirms the sabermetric counterpunch that had cast its shadow over his successful years. His 3.13 ERA of ‘15 had a 4.40 FIP and 4.93 xFIP behind it, only to produce a 3.48 ERA, 4.15 FIP and 4.64 xFIP the next season, so his 4.98 ERA was vindication. The issue here is that he was still really good in the first two months of 2017, only to fall apart between June and August before rebounding in September.

It turns out that Estrada was having sleep problems as the trade deadline approached (on top of other things) and stress mounted. He went 0-5 and averaged under five innings per start en route to an 8.87 ERA in his 10 outings between June 1 and July 28, aka the deadline date. His next start, on July 31, saw him yield just one run over seven sterling innings. He wasn’t perfect down the stretch, allowing six or more runs three times, but we’re not touting him as an ace, simply as a good pitcher. And a human. He’s a human being prone to stressful periods and their effects. Fantasy can be cold-blooded numbers, but hopefully, his 2018 is more relaxed. If so, you and he both win.