RADIO
Welcome back RotoBallers! Ian Poulter (-19) won the Houston Open in a dramatic playoff in the final tune-up before the Masters.
This week I will be providing you with my DraftKings lineup picks for the Masters Tournament. My goal as always is to help put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups. If anyone has lineup questions before the start of the tournament Thursday morning, feel free to contact me via Twitter @Seth_Fink.
Editor's Note: Our friends at Fantasy National have built some incredible DFS Golf lineup tools including a Lineup Optimizer, Stat Engine, Ownership Projections and Course Breakdowns. They are by far the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry. Seriously. You can read all about them here and see screenshots.
Masters Tournament
The NCAA Tournament has ended so now the focus can finally shift to golf. The Super Bowl of golf gets underway Thursday from Augusta National Golf Club in Georgia.
The course has four par-3's, 10 par-4's, and four par-5's. Players hit the fairway at a higher clip here, 67%, than tour average, 60%. From the fairways to the greens, though, players reached the greens, at a lower percentage, 60%, than tour average, 65%. If they fail to get on the green, that's when the trouble sets in. The scrambling percentage at Augusta is 51%. The tour average is 57%. Sand saves are also fairly important in determining finish position.
The greens are Bentgrass and are extremely fast. To show you just how difficult putting is at Augusta, there's an average of 0.95 three-putts per round. That's nearly doubled the tour average, 0.55. The less three-putt's a player has, the better finish he will see.
The last six years the cut line has been an average of 5-over.
Past winners have been Sergio Garcia, Danny Willett, Jordan Spieth, Bubba Watson, Adam Scott, Watson, Charl Schwartzel, and Phil Mickelson.
My custom stat model will be focusing on five stats; Strokes Gained: putting (35%), GIR's gained (25%), 3-putt avoidance (20%), scrambling (15%), and sand saves (5%).
The top-3 finishers in GIR's gained has finished in the top-5, 19 of 30 times. The winner has not finished outside the top-6 in GIR's gained.
Jordan Spieth has the most total strokes gained at this event the past five years, 50.08, followed by Justin Rose 48.51, Rory McIlroy, 41.51, Jason Day, 32.51, and Matt Kuchar, 31.51.
If you're considering going with McIlroy, no one has ever completed the career grand-slam at the Masters.
The last six Masters winners have been ranked inside the top-20 of the Official World Golf Rankings.
The top-20 going into the Masters are Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm, Jordan Spieth, Justin Rose, Hideki Matsuyama, Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler, Sergio Garcia, Brooks Koepka, Jason Day, Tommy Fleetwood, Paul Casey, Henrik Stenson, Alex Noren, Marc Leishman, Tyrrell Hatton, Phil Mickelson, Bubba Watson, and Matt Kuchar.
My custom stat model will focus on the last 24 rounds played with an emphasis on average/difficult scoring, hitting fairways easy/average, and Bentgrass greens.
With the results, I keyed on the following.
* I will not be looking at any stats from the Match Play two weeks ago. Only referencing it. *
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
High-Priced Players
There are four players this week priced above $10,000; Dustin Johnson ($11,400), Justin Thomas ($10,800), Jordan Spieth ($10,400), and Tiger Woods ($10,000)
Johnson was rolling this time last year when he slipped and fell right before the Masters, injuring his back and withdrawing. He's played five times since the start of the year, finishing within the top-20 in all, but he played twice in March. That's not enough competition for the biggest event. I've changed my mind over the past two days. It feels like Johnson is under the radar coming into this. Like I said, he hasn't played much at all, but he's ranked so highly, if not number one, in all the important stats. For tournament plays, go with DJ because there are plenty of good cheap players, referenced below, that can help balance the salary.
Thomas is on a tear of late. He came in fourth place in the WGC - Match Play two weeks ago, second at the WGC - Mexico, winner at the Honda, and T-9 at the Genesis. There's no golfer who I really take issue with, but I do with JT after he got a fan ejected at the Honda. However, the way he's been playing of late, the fact that he's number five in my rankings, he's a player to build a lineup around. He's competed at two Masters placing T-39, and T-22 last year. You usually win majors when you're a young budding star and that's what JT is.
Spieth has a phenomenal track record at Augusta; T-2, win, T-2, and T-11 last year. However, he has not been playing well and what happened two years ago at Rae's Creek, he won't forget soon.
Woods will be so highly owned this week. CBS Sportsline is even calling for him to do well. He's been playing great of late, 12th, T-2, T-5, and his putting has continued to improve. I'll be throwing him into a couple lineups because how can you not root for Tiger in the Masters?
Middle-Priced Players
Jason Day ($9,800) - A phenomenal putter who has had a great start to 2018, yet no one seems to be talking much about him. He won the Farmers, followed that up with a runner-up at the AT&T Pro-Am, and then a T-22 at the Arnold Palmer Inv. He's competed in 29 majors making the cut 25 times. This will be his eighth Masters and he's never missed a cut (withdrew once). His best finishes have been runner-up in 2011, third in '13, and a T-10 in '16. He also provides great value to win at 20-1.
Rickie Fowler ($9,000) - Last year, I was all over Justin Rose and he lost in a playoff to Sergio Garcia. This year, Fowler is my pick to win. The second player in my rankings has great value, 20-1, and seems a little off-the-radar coming in. He's 6/7 in cuts made at Augusta, including a T-5 in 2014, T-12 in '15, and T-11 last year. Fowler had a nice showing this past week in Houston (-8) and seems to be in perfect form to win his first major. Dave Tindall looked at several trends to determine a winner and they pointed to Fowler, or Marc Leishman winning. It may look strange to put a green jacket on an all-orange outfit.
Paul Casey ($8,800) - Another payer who's never won a major, but who's been so close so many times (nine top-10's in all four majors). He has not missed a cut this season and the last time he played was at the Valspar which he won. His last three Masters he's finished T-6, T-4, and sixth last year. His putting has continued to improve the past couple of weeks.
Bubba Watson ($8,700) - He is so hit or miss, but he loves playing Augusta. The two-time Masters champion has had quite resurgence this year winning the Genesis Open and finishing T-9 at the WGC - Mexico. Lefties tend to have an advantage at Augusta.
Marc Leishman ($8,200) - He's the other option Tindall had winning. I remember being all over him last year, and he was a disappointing T-43. His last two outings, T-37 in Mexico and T-7 at the Arnold Palmer Inv.
Alex Noren ($8,100) - His first season on the PGA Tour has been tremendous, but he's done everything but win. He was runner-up at the Farmers, third at the Honda, and third at the Match Play. His only time playing at Augusta was last year, he was cut. He'll contend and get a top-10.
Adam Scott ($8,000) - Late addition here on Wednesday. I've been on Scotty for so long now, why get off of him? I keep waiting for the 2013 Masters champ to show us why he was one of the most talented players on tour a couple years ago. He finished T-9 last year here, has made eight straight Masters cuts among 14/16 cuts.
Louis Oosthuizen ($7,900) - He is such a good putter which always translates well on the fast Augusta greens. He's made his last four Masters cuts.
Patrick Reed ($7,700) - Imagine if he were paired with Tiger on Sunday and Reed decides to go with the red shirt and black pants. That may break Twitter. Anyway, he's number one in 3-putt avoidance and scrambling. Although he's 2/4 in cuts made (T-22, and T-49 when making the cut), his last two outings have been very good finishing T-2 at the Valspar and T-7 at the Arnold Palmer Inv.
Patrick Cantlay ($7,600) - This will be Cantlay's first time playing Augusta since being the low-amateur back in 2012. He's had a solid 2018 with his best mark finishing T-4 at the Genesis Open. He's sixth in strokes gained putting in my rankings.
Low-Priced Players
Kevin Kisner ($7,100) - I'm picking him solely because he's number one in my putting rankings. He has been struggling of late missing three of his last four cuts. However, at this price, all you can ask for his making the cut and that's something he's done at his only two Masters (past two years) and made his last eight cuts at majors.
Shubhankar Sharma ($7,100) - He played so well at the WGC - Mexico, and that earned him an invite to Augusta. He was the darling of the tournament through three rounds, but in the final round, when the pressure got to him, he couldn't make birdies. This will be the 21-year-old's first major ever. He is a boom-or-bust pick.
Zach Johnson ($7,000) - The 2007 Masters champ has missed three of the last four cuts at Augusta including the past two. He's yet to miss a cut this year though with three top-20's.
Pat Perez ($6,900) - He ranks in the top-10 in three of the five stats I keyed on. This will be the 42-year-old's fourth time competing at the Masters. Last year he registered a T-18. He's had a steady 2018 making every cut. He is ranked 21st in the Official World Golf Rankings. He is a deep sleeper, but one that can surprise many.
Best of luck RotoBallers!
Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks
Custom Stat Model - DFS Golf Advanced Tools
Here are the players I wrote about and their correlating stats with my custom stat model:
Premium DFS Golf Tools and Lineup Optimizer
Our friends at Fantasy National have created some game-changing DFS Golf tools, and you can read all about them here. They are hands-down the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry.
