2018 PPR Mock Draft Review - Rankings vs Reality

Rotoballer's first mock draft of the 2018 fantasy football season is in the books. You may think that our results would closely mirror our own early PPR rankings, but that isn't always the case. There were quite a few surprises, to say the least, as some owners threw the concept of ADP right out the window early on.

In this space, I'll compare and contrast our mock draft results with our current rankings to see where the biggest discrepancies lie. These values are sure to shift again once training camps are underway, but it's a useful exercise to see which players might go sooner or later than conventional wisdom dictates. It also gives some insight into the mind of the fantasy football expert, scary as that may be sometimes...

Biggest Reaches

For our sake, a reach will be defined as a player who was drafted at least 10 spots ahead of their current ranking for PPR leagues. This doesn't necessarily mean that the pick will be defined as a poor choice, although it certainly may be.

2.08: Joe Mixon (RB, CIN) - drafted #20, ranked #41

Maybe Mixon will be better than he was in his rookie season when he averaged 3.5 yards per carry and was the 12th-least efficient back according to NFL's NextGen Stats. Maybe the Bengals' offensive line will be far better than last year, when they ranked 31st in Open Field Yards per carry at 0.41. Even so, Mixon will continue to be drafted as a high-end RB2 simply because he has a solid lock on the starting job and has great physical talent. Although he didn't select him in this draft, our Kyle Richardson certainly sees Mixon as a breakout candidate for 2018. Running backs will not come cheap on draft day; Mixon's lofty draft status after a disappointing season confirms this.

4.02: Lamar Miller (RB, HOU) - drafted #38, ranked #77

Remember when Miller was a first-rounder just two years ago after joining Houston? Good times. You'd be hard-pressed to find many people defending Miller's fantasy value these days, but he still finds himself as a fourth-rounder somehow. As mentioned above, runners were coming off the board fast and furious in the first couple of rounds, but it's still surprising to see Miller taken ahead of fellow Dolphins, current and former, Kenyan Drake and Jay Ajayi. Miller should have the backfield to himself initially while D'Onta Foreman recovers from his ACL tear, but that doesn't mean much. From Week 11 on, after Foreman was out for the season, Miller didn't even reach 60 rushing yards in a game and scored just once. In fact, Miller never even reached 80 rushing yards in a game all season, even with Deshaun Watson behind center. His best days seem to be well past him, so he's best left as an RB3.

4.10: Devin Funchess (WR, CAR) - drafted #46, ranked #71

The Panthers were in desperate need of receiver help, so they drafted D.J. Moore in the first round to be their WR1 of the future. As far as 2018, Funchess will still claim that role, but it should be somewhat diminished. He inherited the job after Kelvin Benjamin was dealt mid-season and did well by hauling in 30 receptions for 483 yards and five touchdowns over the second half of the season. Funchess faces two problems, however. Moore is one, but the return of Greg Olsen poses a bigger threat to Funchess' target share. Olsen was essentially a non-factor until the last three games of the season, but he was the team's leading target in 2016 by 15 attempts, and by 30 in 2015. Funchess just won't see enough volume to be a fantasy WR1, even if he technically holds the claim on his own team.

6.02: Jordan Reed (TE, WAS) - drafted #62, ranked #99

14 games in the last two seasons, 28 over his five-year career--that's how much time Reed has missed with various injuries. Everyone knows this, yet he is continually selected as one of the top eight tight ends each year. His talent in undeniable, but when you consider that he has one year of elite production on his resume and four years of mediocrity combined with frustration, it doesn't justify selecting him as the fifth TE off the board.

7.01: Isaiah Crowell (RB, NYJ) - drafted #73, ranked #114

Elijah McGuire has garnered praise from his RB coach recently, even drawing comparisons to LaDanian Tomlinson (we're not buying it BTW). Bilal Powell has been told he performed well enough to be a feature back, but will have to earn that role this year. Isaiah Crowell is... kind of there. While many assumed he was signed to take over the feature early-down role after Matt Forte's retirement, it now appears that he may serve more as depth and a short-yardage specialist. He may have been misused in Cleveland, but why would going to the Jets be any better?

8.03: Michael Gallup (WR, DAL) - drafted #87, ranked #172

On a recent episode of the Fantasy Bomb podcast, we jokingly said that this was a great pick... for a dynasty startup. Rookie wide receivers rarely make a big splash and Dallas' passing game wasn't in the best shape to wind down 2017. While certainly a huge reach in terms of ADP (Gallup might not have even been drafted at all), it looks far better in retrospect. The fact that Kyle was able to secure a good QB later on and snag a solid TE like Jack Doyle in the final round made this a gamble worth taking. While I'm betting on Allen Hurns to be the leading target in Dallas, Gallup could surprise and is probably a better bet than Calvin Ridley or Courtland Sutton this season.

Hardest Fallers

9.03: Sammy Watkins (WR, KC) - drafted #99, ranked #83

Playing for his third team in three years, it's easy to see why many owners are overlooking the former fourth overall pick in 2018. Watkins didn't do much as a Ram, but a fresh start could be just the ticket. With a full preseason to gel with his new team, Watkins is reportedly already clicking with QB Pat Mahomes and being utilized all over the field rather than simply as a deep threat. When you have a supreme talent like Watkins, always take the under on draft slot in hopes that a breakout is coming. This pick by Steve Rebeiro makes up for his reach on Funchess earlier and the unfortunate fact that Julian Edelman was suspended a couple weeks after this draft. As far the Jeremy Maclin pick later on, we can only hope it was an auto-draft situation.

9.09: Evan Engram (TE, NYG) - drafted #105, ranked #59

If Evan Engram and Jordan Reed swapped bodies in a Freaky Friday type situation, this would make sense. The 23-year-old looks to build on his excellent rookie campaign, while Reed struggles to simply stay on the field. Engram is typically going ahead of other aging tight end options like Jimmy Graham and Greg Olsen, so don't expect him to be hanging around in the ninth round anywhere. His current ADP of 60 overall is one spot behind our consensus ranking and 11 spots behind my personal ranking of 49. It's unclear why he lasted so long in this mock, but it looks to be nothing more than an aberration. Credit to Justin Carter for striking at the right time and achieving great balance on his roster.

11.10: Kirk Cousins (QB, MIN) - drafted #142, ranked #62

There's no need to draft a starting QB early. Our experts certainly put that theory to the test, as only four passers were taken in the first six rounds. While nearly all our drafters locked down a quarterback by round seven, Kyle Richardson's strategy worked out brilliantly when he nabbed Cousins in round 11 and backed him up immediately with Dak Prescott five picks later. Cousins has been a top-seven fantasy QB for three straight seasons, exceeding 4,000 yards and 25 touchdowns each time. With better weapons around him now, why should he fall out of the top 10 at his position? His ADP is typically in the 80s, which is still a good value if you can get him there.

14.08: Marqise Lee (WR, JAC) - drafted #176, ranked #107

Lee's ADP could be all over the place, depending on the format you play. His consensus ADP on FantasyPros is 136 overall (WR51), while we have him ranked at 107. In this draft, he fell nearly 70 spots lower. There will be a great difference of opinion on the value of Jacksonville's receivers, although Lee is almost certain to be the main recipient of passes thrown by Blake Bortles. Wait, maybe that explains something...

15.02: Philip Rivers (QB, LAC) - drafted #170, ranked #103

Quarterbacks were far and wide the best value, but Rivers' precipitous drop makes him the steal of this draft. If you recall that Rivers was second in the league in passing yards a year ago and finished as the eighth-ranked fantasy QB in standard scoring formats, you might be befuddled how he is becoming an afterthought in early drafts. He was the QB18 in this mock, falling 67 spots below his RotoBaller ranking. Losing Hunter Henry for the season hurts, but it's not as if he put up an All-Pro performance last season. If anything, having a healthy Mike Williams become a contributor could make this receiving group more dangerous, in addition to Mike Pouncey at center and the return of Forrest Lamp at guard to fortify the O-line. Rivers has thrown for at least 4,200 yards in five straight seasons and eight of the last nine, making him the safest 15th rounder you'll find.

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