Statcast Hitter Analysis - Left-Handed xwOBA Splits (Week 18)

A left-handed pitcher takes the mound, a left-handed batter hits the bench. We see it all too often, especially in the later innings when managers love to play the same-handed split matchups in the bullpen. Your star players (does Bryce Harper still count?) won't be affected, but many others will. Not all left-handed batters suffer in this case, though. In fact, some surprising names perform just as well or better against LHP and vice versa. Using the predictive power of xwOBA, let's see who you can trust in weekly leagues without the concern of missing valuable at-bats down the stretch based on matchups.

Many fantasy baseball owners are starting to see the value of MLB's Statcast advanced stats in order to help identify potential risers and sleepers. Just as we do for pitchers, this weekly series will examine a handful of hitters who are performing surprisingly well or poorly according to sabermetrics.

This week, we'll look at batting average when facing infield shifts by comparing April/May outcomes with June/July. While average alone is just one component of fantasy scoring, it drives nearly every other counting stat that matters and is a good starting point for this analysis.

Surprising Chart Toppers

All stats current as of July 30, 2018 and display leaders among hitters with at least 50 PA for each split

Max Muncy (1B/3B, LAD)  .450 xwOBA vs. lefties

We should really stop being surprised by Muncy at this point. His home run prowess hasn't slowed and he still holds a decent .261 average on the year. As a left-handed power bat, you might assume he is weaker against left-handed pitching but not so. He is batting .304 against lefties and .245 against righties. Six of his homers have gone opposite field, with four others hit to center. In this case, his high xwOBA is boosted not just by his average, but an extraordinary 17.4% walk rate. Last year's late-age breakout, Jose Martinez, proved to be a legit hitter again this year but defensive shortcomings and a managerial change conspired to kill his value. Muncy may not be in play for a Gold Glove, but his .992 fielding percentage and ever-so-slightly positive UZR mean he's not in danger of being jettisoned like Martinez. Muncy is by no means a risky buy in redraft or dynasty.

Scott Schebler (OF, CIN) .385 xwOBA vs. lefties

Few players have bounced back and forth on a monthly basis than Schebler in terms of on-base production. Currently on the disabled list with shoulder discomfort, he should be back soon to regain playing time in a Reds outfield that just got less crowded with the trade of Adam Duvall to Atlanta. After 30 HR last season, Schebler is far off that pace with 12 in 266 at-bats, but that might largely have to do with missed playing time and a lower fly ball rate. Meanwhile, his line drive rate has jumped seven points to aid his batting average by 55 points. The fact he is batting a full 101 points higher against lefties than righties and it was Duvall who got dealt should be a strong case for regular playing time going forward. His overall profile is more about balance than as a pure slugger as it would have seemed last year, but as an OF3 that's not a bad thing.

Yonder Alonso (1B, CLE)  .363 xwOBA vs. lefties

This is an ideal time to profile Alonso, as he's been on fire since the second half began. Alonso has five HR and 10 RBI in his last eight games started since the break. His wOBA is 20 points lower than last year's breakout, but that number is steadily climbing. His xwOBA is actually higher than last season, so positive regression could keep coming if he sustains last year's growth patterns.

Nick Williams (OF, PHI)  .357 xwOBA vs. lefties

Williams wasn't seeing regular playing time early in the season, but he's already logged 300 plate appearances and is the regular right fielder in Philly. Most of his numbers are similar to his rookie year, except that he's improved his plate discipline quite a bit. His 0.21 BB/K has climbed to 0.33, although his OBP hasn't climbed because his average has taken a small step back. Like Alonso, Williams is experiencing a discrepancy between his expected and actual wOBA this season, with a 37 point gap between the two. As long as Williams stays near the middle of the lineup, there should be enough R+RBI potential to make him a worthy streamer in deep leagues despite the limited HR ceiling and lack of speed.

Alarming Bottom Dwellers

Travis Shaw (3B, MIL)  .228 xwOBA vs. lefties

Shaw is already under the gun in fantasy leagues because of the Mike Moustakas acquisition, so it won't help to see that he is terrible against left-handed pitching. Last year's split wasn't too bad (31 point gap in AVG) but in 2016 he batted just .187 vs LHP. The real issue here isn't just that his on-base numbers are lower, but that he hasn't hit a single homer against a lefty this year. The move to second base, a new position that he's never played in the majors, may not work out as desired, but his tremendous success against RHP will keep him in the lineup most nights. As I mentioned recently in my Buy or Sell column, the perception of Shaw's shortcoming may be more severe than in reality, making him a potential buy-low candidate. Just make sure to have a good backup option on those lefty matchup days.

Shohei Ohtani (OF, LAA)  .243 xwOBA vs. lefties

The next Babe Ruth! He can pitch and hit at an elite level! That was the buzz surrounding Japanese import Ohtani before this season began. He delivered early on until a UCL scare and brief rest hampered his production. He's been in the lineup on a semi-regular basis since July began but is batting just .203 on the month, lowering his season average to .260. A large part of this is ineffectiveness against LHP, as he is carrying a .163 average versus lefties. Now, it's not a matter of adjusting to the Major Leagues so much as same-handed pitching. He's far too young to peg as a player with a split problem, especially given our limited sample size against American pitching. Worry about the health first and foremost.

Rougned Odor (2B, TEX)  .265 xwOBA vs. lefties

Don't be alarmed - Odor is batting 30 points higher against LHP this season, up to .291. That's a great sign that this year may be a far cry from 2017, when he hit a mere .145 vs LHP. His .367 July average could carry on through the second half, making him one of the most underrated assets you can acquire. That said, his .265 xwOBA against lefties isn't as optimistic and his .322 overall xwOBA is 215th among batters with 100 plate appearances, but a first half slowed by injury and subsequent recovery may mask his recent improvements.

Ender Inciarte (OF, ATL)  .276 xwOBA vs. lefties

The fantasy gods taketh and they taketh away. Bestowed with a league-leading stolen base total in the first half, Inciarte's ability to hit for average has instead been compromised. A career .290 hitter heading into the season, Inciarte is down to .247 on the year. His struggles have just been more pronounced against left-handers, especially in the counting categories; he has no homers, six RBI, and 17 R in 110 at-bats vs LHP. We usually associate these negative splits with power hitters, but Inciarte is an exception. He has never experienced these problems before, having hit .291 against lefties in 2017 and .316 against them in 2016. It's inexplicable why he would suddenly struggle this way, but it's part of a larger conversation about why his BABIP is so much lower when his hard hit rate is up.

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