RADIO
Another day, another slate of four LPL and LCK games for us to figure out by tomorrow morning! I’m Jason Malmanger and I’ll be your guide on this esports fantasy adventure today.
Welp. That could have gone better for yours truly—there was a lot of sloppy play on Wednesday morning, resulting in some lower than expected fantasy outcomes. DRX came through with a cute little upset, but watching SNG give that series away was tough. Gotta shake, shake, shake it off and get back on that grind tonight as another four gamer full of double-barrelled tilt is heading right for us.
Today, I'll be providing my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LCK/LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 4:00 AM on Thursday, June 18th, 2020. Make sure you are following me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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4:00 AM: KT Rolster (-345) vs. Team Dynamics
The last team ever promoted from Challengers Korea makes their debut in LCK this morning, and I think it's going to be a rough welcome. KT was a pleasant surprise in the spring split, making the playoffs, but falling to DWG in the opening round. Dynamics tore through the promotion tournament with a pair of decisive 2-0 over SBG and Soeraboel.
It's tough to compare the team stats for these two; with TD having played in the challenger league, the level of competition is lower than the LCK. We can, however, infer some tendencies from those stats. TD had the best first turret rate, and the second-highest rift herald percentage in Challengers last split. That's not surprising given that their top laner Rich might be their best player. What was a surprise is that KT Rolster had the best first turret rate in LCK and the second-best rift herald percentage.
Given their bot lane prowess, you would expect KT to be a more dragon oriented team, and they were that also. They had the third-best drake percentage in the league while TD was first in their league. So it looks like we'll be fighting over early objectives in this one. We'll have to wait for starting lineups to be announced, but KT added Smeb to the roster in the offseason.
I would love to see him go toe to toe with Rich. Rich is maybe the best player for TD, and Smeb has taken the last year off, but he has a world-class pedigree. Rich is 22 years old, and that's ancient for esports debutants, but he was previously a Heroes of the Storm pro and is a fan favorite in Korea. While the possibility of that clash has me hyped, it is the bot lane that could decide this one.
Aiming could be the MVP of the league if you view that in terms of who means the most to their team. He is first in kill participation, second in kill share, and second in gold share among ADCs in the league. KT also added Ucal from the relegated Griffin squad, and I imagine we'll see him starting in the mid lane. That's a nice upgrade over Kuro, who is a legend in his own right, but at 26 years old might not have the talent or drive he once possessed.
Even if Kuro and Smeb don't see the rift at all this split, they will serve as superb mentors for their positional understudies. TD might have a slight advantage on the top side of the map, but Aiming and Tusin will blow deokdam and GuGer out of the water on the bottom side of the rift. That advantage will prove to be too much for the side of TD I fear. I like KT Rolster to take this one likely in a sweep.
Top KTR Plays:
- Aiming - ADC
- Tusin - SUP
- Bono - JNG
- KT Team
7:00 AM: SeolHaeOne Prince vs. Hanawa Life (-145)
APK no more, but the more things change, the more they stay the same as Mickey returns to Korea to become the starting mid laner for the same team he left to go to the LEC. HLE has some additions of their own, reuniting Viper with his former lane mate from the Griffin days Lehends. DuDu(DUNGA) also joined to give them some depth and youth to their top lane position. Perhaps his most important contribution (Outside of the name memes) will be pushing Cuvee to refind his world championship form.
The addition of Viper is absolutely huge for me as this team played basically without an ADC in the spring. Viper has been one of the best in the league, if not the world, over the last three seasons, so my man Vince would say they went from a -10 to a +10 at a vital role. I'm ready for HLE to make a jump to playoff contention at least, and that starts with beating SHOP here.
This match will come down to the bot lane matchup, and while Hybrid has been the primary win condition for this SHOP squad, I like the combo of Viper and Lehends together better than that of Hybrid and Secret. Just having a steady and robust bot lane should help the rest of the map immensely see also TES after Jackeylove's arrival.
With the second LPL match being a slower one for the LPL, I like this as a sneaky upside spot. HLE tweeted out last split that they wanted to be more LPL-like in their playstyle. Well, now they have a real reason to throw those five-person parties in the bot lane.
Top HLE Plays:
- Viper - ADC
- Lehends - SUP
- Haru - JNG
- HLE Team
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LPL Matches
5:00 AM: Victory 5 (-200) vs. Billibilli Gaming
"No Meteor = No Love," he said again, emphatically. Even after BLG picked up a 2-1 over eStar, I will give them precisely zero credit for that. Estar gets all the blame in that series, especially after the game one shenanigans. I do give them some credit for not imploding after what had to be a very frustrating opening to that set. We're totally over it here, and on to the next one. As much as I love the narrative here, which is V5 are great now, and BLG suck now, neither of those statements is precisely correct.
BLG has played against three teams (VG, FPX, and ES) that are better than they are. Even with Meteor in the squad, all three of their opponents finished above them in the spring split. V5 has played one team (LGD) that's better than them now that they are fielding an actual LPL level team. Even though V5 is 2-1 and BLG is 1-2, their stats are not that much different. V5 average a negative turret differential at fifteen minutes, while BLG sits even at turrets at 15. That's a stat you wouldn't expect from teams with opposite records. V5 have had better barons so far this split, but their vision stats are nearly equal.
I'm not convinced by the records, or the team stats, down to the players. Looking into the jungle matchup 13est16 and Weiwei are very close in terms of relevant stats. In the mid lane, I much favor FoFo over Mole. In the bot lane, you imagine that SamD would statistically destroy Wings, but the only relevant difference is in their kill participation. Wings, oddly enough, has much better damage per minute stats.
This set will be closer than the odds or pricing on sites would indicate, and it should be the best fantasy matchup of the day as well. I hate to say it, but give me a meteorless BLG to pick up another win likely 2-1 because it will be close. Having the most fantasy potential coming from this game; I think it's wise to split exposure on it and play a few lineups from both sides of the match.
Top BLG Plays:
- FoFo - MID
- 13est16 - JNG
- Wings - ADC
- XinMo - SUP
Top V5 Plays:
- SamD - ADC
- ppgod - SUP
- Weiwei - JNG
- Mole - MID
7:00 AM: JDG (-315) vs. Royal Never Give Up
Both of these teams have seen some struggles recently in the summer split. JDG bowed out of the Mid Season Cup much sooner than I'm sure they would have liked to, they then had some trouble getting by SNG, and then they were dismantled by TES. RNG opened the summer split on fire, looking like one of the best teams in the league; their drafting issues a thing of the past.
Then maybe they started to read their press as they gave up three cloud drake soul to the side of LNG, who with Ezreal, Yuumi, and Olaf made great use of all the zoomies. Game two might have been worse yet with LNG drafting Ornn, Aphelios, Azir, Thresh, and Graves. Music to the ears of a team that would love nothing more than to hyper-scale. Royal took down JDG in the spring 2-0, but that was the second to last match for JDG without Zoom.
So far, in the summer split, we have seen JDG maintain that top focus and take 62% of the rift heralds in their games. The matchup between New and Zoom should be one that is very exploitable for the side of JDG. I like their bot lane slightly better as well, leaving RNG with only a slight advantage mid. I think we will see JDG return more to their spring selves here.
One of RNG's most significant problems has been in draft, as I already explained. They will be on the red side today, and they will have counter pick which they predictably struggled on in spring split going 5-7 whereas JDG will have the comfort of first pick and were 14-4 on blue side in spring. I like JDG to get back on track here with a 2-1, possibly even repaying RNG for their sweep in spring.
Top JDG Plays:
- Kanavi - JNG
- Loken - ADC
- Zoom - TOP
- LvMao - SUP
Summary
- FD has priced JDG up, and I don't know if I can afford that much of my salary cap for a game that's not projected to go nuts. I think the other LPL game holds more upside and, therefore, interest for me.
- The HLE/SHP match looks tasty, with two of the faster LCK teams in action in this one. The pricing is attractive here on DK as well. Plus, it's the late might catch some people napping with the ownership who are too scared to take the risk of someone not starting.
- I got a little wide trying to cover all my bases on Wednesday. Time to tighten back up and focus on my main spots. All it took was 4 games to get me overwhelmed by choices.
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