Somehow we have made it halfway through the season. Many thought it wouldn’t be possible in a pandemic, and by no means has it been a smooth process, but the NFL has made it work. To add to the injuries and COVID tests, we have four teams on bye in week nine: Bengals, Browns, Rams, and Eagles.

In Week 8, we saw multiple record-breaking fantasy performances by individual fantasy players (Dalvin Cook, DK Metcalf), as well as some major NFL results with the Bengals and Vikings both pulling upsets.

Coming off of an upset loss of their own last week, the Packers are traveling to San Francisco to take on the injury-depleted 49ers. Start-sits and game picks are coming to you in this week’s Thursday Night Preview.

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Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers, 8:20 PM ET

Notable Injuries:

Tevin Coleman (RB, SF) - Knee -  Questionable
Raheem Mostert (RB, SF) - Ankle - Out
Deebo Samuel (WR, SF) - Hamstring - Out
Kendrick Bourne (WR, SF) - COVID - Out
Brandon Aiyuk (WR, SF) - COVID - Out
Trent Williams (LT, SF) - COVID - Out
Jimmy Garoppolo (QB, SF) - Ankle - Out
Jordan Reed (TE, SF) - Knee - Questionable
George Kittle (TE, SF) - Knee - Out
Jamaal Williams (RB, GB) - COVID - Out
AJ Dillon (RB, GB) - COVID - Out
Aaron Jones (RB, GB) - Calf - Questionable
Tyler Ervin (RB, GB) - Wrist - Questionable
Allen Lazard (WR, GB) - Core - Questionable

Must-Starts

Davante Adams (WR, GB): The hottest receiver in the league will look to continue his streak this Thursday. In his four full games played, he is averaging 116.5 yards, 14 targets, and 1.75 touchdowns a game. To put that in perspective, he would be on pace to achieve 28 touchdowns, 1,864 yards, and 224 targets over a 16-game season. Those would be absolutely absurd results. I do believe that having Aaron Jones unavailable for the last two weeks may have boosted some of his target and touchdown numbers, but that may be the only knock on Adams this week. He is the best fantasy WR in the league right now and linked to a Hall of Fame quarterback that is looking to win another Super Bowl. 

Aaron Jones (RB, GB): We could have one of the league’s most electric players ready to go this week. The Packers have played it safe with Jones’ injury by giving him all the time he needs to fully recover before seeing the field again. They have employed this strategy to ensure he is healthy in the postseason. For fantasy purposes, it also guarantees that he will have no limitations when he returns to the field.

If Jones plays he is an obvious must-start anyway but both Jamaal Williams and rookie AJ Dillon are missing this game due to COVID protocols. Last year in the three games Jones played without Williams, he averaged 128 all-purpose yards and 1.7 touchdowns. This season, Jones is currently the RB-four in points per game (Half PPR) and has averaged an impressive 5.2 yards per carry. Many people doubted the back’s elite ability last year, however, he hasn’t slowed down this season. He is a top-five fantasy running back and is matchup-proof heading into this week. 

UPDATE: Aaron Jones is expected to be active and make his return to play in this game, but may be limited.

Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB): Time to round out one of the most talented QB-WR-RB trios in the league. Aaron Rodgers has finally gone back to his fantasy “Glory Days” and is torching every team not named the Buccaneers. Rodgers is currently sitting as the QB6 in points per game this season while being on pace to throw 46 touchdowns and 4,456 yards. Rodgers has been a fantasy must-start all season. The only thing limiting his ceiling in this matchup is the potential that the Packers get an early lead, limiting his passing volume. However, with San Francisco's stingy run defense that is no easy task. Rodgers should be started in all formats. Additionally, even without Kittle and Garropolo, this is a revenge game for the Packers who were embarrassed in the NFC Championship last year. 

Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR, GB): This is not a mistake, please hear me out. Being the deep threat for Aaron Rodgers always has the possibility of making a big play, however, he only has one catch for 19 yards in his last two games. MVS has shown no consistency all season even with the golden opportunity of being Rodgers’ number-two WR. However, I’m placing him in this section not because of the player, but because of the matchup. In five of the 49er's last seven games, they have given up a 30+ yard passing touchdown (three were over 40 yards). The only two games of the seven where the 49ers did not give up a long touchdown were in games they held their opponents to only field goals (Week 3 vs. the Giants, and Week 7 vs. the Patriots).

I’m not saying to start MVS regardless of your other options, (after all this could just mean a 40+ yard touchdown to Aaron Jones or Davante Adams), but if there is a matchup that favors MVS, this is it. If you are an underdog going into the week, he might be the high-upside play to get your opponent tilting heading into the weekend.

 

Solid Options

Nick Mullens (QB, SF): Yes, Nick Mullens makes this section. With only 25 passing attempts after Jimmy Garoppolo went down, Mullens finished as the QB13 last week. Some of this success was a result of going against Seattle’s 32nd-ranked secondary, but none-the-less Mullens got it done. This week he goes against Green Bay’s middle-of-the-pack pass defense.

Unfortunately, without Garoppolo, you can bet the 49ers will look to keep the ball on the ground, which is exactly how we saw Dalvin Cook and the Vikings beat Green Bay last week. Thankfully, to counteract this low passing volume, Green Bay should take the lead and force the Niners to pass the ball. I don’t think Mullens is a top-12 player this week, however, if you are struggling with bye weeks, or the injuries of Garoppolo or Gardner Minshew you could do worse than plugging in Mullens. 

Tyler Ervin (RB, GB): This is only if Aaron Jones does not play this week. Without Jones, Williams, and Dillon the running back touches have to go somewhere and Ervin is the most likely candidate. The matchup is not amazing, however, the sheer opportunity and volume will make Ervin a flex play for any RB needy team. Dexter Williams was called up from the Practice Squad this week as well, but you can’t trust him in this matchup.

Robert Tonyan (TE, GB): This season has been full of surprising fantasy options and this year’s tight end five is no different. Robert Tonyan is coming off of a five reception and 79-yard game placing him firmly in the middling tier for tight ends. His usage has been fairly steady, and his seven targets last week were second on the team only behind Devante Adams. Tonyan has displayed a steady fantasy floor, as well as the ceiling that comes from having Aaron Rodgers as your Quarterback. I would start him over the likes of Evan Engram, Hayden Hurst, and Jimmy Graham. After all, Aaron Rodgers can’t throw every touchdown to Devante Adams. Right? 

JaMycal Hasty and Jerick McKinnon (RB, SF): With Tevin Coleman, Raheem Mostert, and Jeff Wilson Jr. all set to miss this game, both of these remaining options can be played in fantasy. The 49ers are averaging the 10th-most rushing yards per game, and with a backup QB under center, they might try to run the ball even more. Once Coleman left the game last week, Hasty was the main beneficiary collecting 12 rushing attempts. Mckinnon on the other hand, had four receptions for 40 yards while only receiving three rushing attempts for negative one yard but managed to fall into the end zone. Of the two backs, I prefer Mckinnon as he will get the passing work in a game where they should be behind. However, based on last week’s split, Hasty’s usage puts him as a low-end flex option in week nine. 

 

Consider Sitting

Ross Dwelley and Jordan Reed (TE, SF): I would be very hesitant to play Reed unless he practices in full before Thursday. If he does, he may have low-end TE-one upside as we have seen him light it up without Kittle. However, coming off an injury I would be hesitant to play him and would ideally look elsewhere. If Jordan Reed is out, I can see why Dwelley may appeal to some, however, you can’t trust him this week. His 16-yard touchdown last week was his only catch since Week 3 of the season. If he has another solid fantasy outing, you may have a serviceable replacement for Kittle over the next few weeks. I wouldn’t bank on that.

Allen Lazard (WR, GB): As of right now it is unclear whether Lazard will be in the lineup this week. Due to the short week and the time missed from his injury, I would struggle to play him in fantasy this week even if he suits up.

 

I like the look of a Green Bay bounce-back performance in an NFC Championship rematch. However, I think both teams will look to keep the ball on the ground making it a relatively low scoring Thursday night game.

Packers -5.5 (3-5), Under 50.0 (2-6)

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