RADIO
I am feeling quite aggressive with my Week 10 GPP Value plays. I think part of it is that my spider senses are tingling big time about this week. Something in my gut is gnawing at me. Or perhaps that is last night's make-your-own-pizza refusing to go quietly. But something just feels wrong about this week.
It's interesting because I'm coming off a pretty good week. Half of my value plays got injured early, giving me sort of an "Incomplete" for last week, but those that did remain in the game played well. And some of my other DFS plays did all right too.
Perhaps I'm not feeling right about this week because I know I will be focusing on the Masters. However, those picks are locked in already and I've been poring over data since I got that finished. I'm feeling a bit contrarian, but here are your four Week 10 GPP value picks at each of the key positions that should help push you into the cashing zone on Sunday!
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Week 10 Quarterback DFS GPP Value Play
Alex Smith at Detroit (DraftKings $5200, FanDuel $6500)
Smith's career in Washington is far more known for his grotesque injury to his leg than anything he has done with his arm. In fact, his numbers while Washington's signal-caller are also on the grotesque side. But I'm calling my shot, that ends this week.
Smith did not have the benefit of Terry McLaurin during his first season in Washington. He now does.
OH LAWD, what you doin' Terry?!
(via @NFL) pic.twitter.com/F2SHgS8363
— Sunday Night Football (@SNFonNBC) November 8, 2020
Going into battle with a weapon like McLaurin should definitely help Smith. The fact that the opponent in that battle is the Detroit Lions makes it even better. The Lions are allowing the eleventh most QB fantasy points per game. The stats are not pretty for the Lions Defense. Opposing signal-callers are seeing the 4th highest touchdown rate (6.42%) and passing for 7.78 yards per attempt on average (10th). It looks like Smith is still a little gun shy, but the Lions are 25th in the league in sacking quarterbacks or less than 4 percent of dropbacks.
Smith is not going to be the biggest fantasy points producer this weekend. However, he could easily have the most fantasy points/salary this week, making him a great GPP value.
Week 10 Running Back DFS GPP Value Play
James Robinson at Packers (DraftKings $6600, FanDuel $7300)
Due to the varied injury statuses of the backs in front of them, Duke Johnson J.D. McKissic, and Mike Davis are cheap value plays that are going to be extremely popular. Therefore the best GPP Value Play might be to actually spend up at the position. Despite the high price tag, I do think we can squeeze a little profit from James Robinson, thereby making him a decent GPP value play.
I suspect that Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams will be a popular tandem this week. DJ Chark and some of his fellow Jacksonville WRs might be popular "runback" options as well. Therefore, few will be looking to ride the negatively correlated Jacksonville run game. And that could be a mistake.
Robinson is on pace to easily smash through the 1K rushing yard barrier. He is scoring almost a TD a game. He was being targeted in the passing game, but unfortunately only saw two targets last week. But that was okay, but he rushed for 99 yards and a touchdown. That's now eight games in a row that Robinson has scored at least double-digit DKFPs. That's something that neither James Connor nor Kareem Hunt, two backs priced above Robinson, can say.
Robinson, therefore, brings a strong floor, but with a match-up against the Packers that also means a cathedral high ceiling. Opposing RBs have scored a league-high 11 rushing touchdowns and 15 total touchdowns. I know there is some concern about the Packers going up big and Jacksonville having to abandon the run game. However, even if we stripped away all rushing totals, the Packers would still be allowing 15.3 PPR fantasy points to opposing running backs. Given that Robinson has scored nearly 78% of all of Jacksonville's running back points, the 33.7 PPR points that Green Bay is giving up indicates Robinson could end Sunday with some very nice stats.
Given Robinson is one of the pricier options, we're going scrape the bottom of the barrel for our week 10 WR value play.
Week 10 Wide Receiver DFS GPP Value Play
Bryan Edwards vs Broncos (DraftKings $3000, FanDuel $4500)
I read somewhere that Nelson Agholor has secured himself a starting role on the Raiders. That might be one of the more amusing things I've heard as most Philadelphia Eagles fans will tell you that Algholor can't secure anything...
“My man just started throwing babies out the window and we was catching them, unlike Agholor," said Hakim Laws describing a fire in Philadelphia. Laws went viral for his comment shading Eagles player Nelson Agholor after the team lost to the Lions https://t.co/iUEsSUOnpj pic.twitter.com/eUzqFueo53
— Action News on 6abc (@6abc) September 23, 2019
Eagles fans have also joked that Agholor got married just so he could have a reception. The joke is on the Eagles fans however as Agholor has a catch rate of better than 20%. I'm no Eagles fan, but I will say the odds of Agholor maintaining that rate is less likely than the Eagles going to the Super Bowl. I took the roundabout route to get there, but the point is we should expect to see Agholor splitting time with Bryan Edwards immediately.
And we can get Edwards for about 50% off the price of Agholor. He's the bare minimum on both sites and presents huge upside. The Broncos secondary has given up the eighth-most fantasy WR fantasy points per game and can't seem to wrangle anyone. Denver has allowed 15 WRs already to finish with 10.7 or more PPR points through eight games. So Edwards doesn't even need to be the Raiders top WR this week. And he manages even close to 10 PPR points, he will provide us with a super profit.
Week 10 Tight End DFS GPP Value Play
Mike Gesicki vs Chargers (DraftKings $4300, FanDuel $5300)
It is an extremely tough week for tight ends. Travis Kelce is on bye, George Kittle is still injured, Mark Andrews does not play on the main slate, and so forth. Even those tight ends just below the first tier, like Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry, have tough matchups.
This is why as it wrong as it looks, Mike Gesicki is actually priced within the top-10 TE options on DraftKings this week. I definitely prefer him on FanDuel this week. But he's still cheap enough on either site to make him worthy of selection. The Chargers have given up the eighth-most fantasy points per game to TEs, so it's a decent matchup. We have seen Gesicki, however, fail to take advantage of these easier matchups before. However, things are a little different now... it's Tua time!
I'm still on the fence about Tua Tagovailoa, but I like what I'm seeing. The likely loss of Preston Williams definitely hurts the rookie quarterback's fantasy outlook for this week. However, that also means Gesicki is likely to see even more targets than the four he saw last Sunday. He has seen six or more targets twice this year and in those two games (Weeks 2 and 5), he combined for 13 catches, 221 yards, and a touchdown. I'm going to hold my nose as I do it, but Gesicki is a viable Week 10 GPP value play.
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