RADIO
Last week I was aggressive in my picks, but I'm being even more frugal this week with my Week 11 GPP Value plays. We are going with two rookies, well maybe a third if you count the XFL player that I thought might be on an NFL team this year, and a 36-year old only making his fourth start in the last two years. I'm not exactly selecting the cream of the crop.
But that's what GPP value plays are all about--finding that low-owned player who provides so much value that he can help you take down a GPP. I might be bargain-bin hunting too much this week, who knows? But if you want to spend up for your studs, the options below are viable alternatives to provide some salary relief.
Here are your four Week 11 GPP value picks at each of the key positions that should help push you into the cashing zone on Sunday!
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Week 11 Quarterback DFS GPP Value Play
Alex Smith vs Cincinnati (DraftKings $5300, FanDuel $6,600)
I had Smith in this space last week and I'm going back to the well. In the last two weeks, Smith has racked up 715 passing yards total. Could a 400-yard game out of Smith be far behind?
What I like about Smith is that his aDOT was nearly three yards higher than the previous week and he continues to get better each week. And that's good given that Smith's volume continues to rise. Washington is averaging over 37 pass attempts per game and when you blend that with Bengals being burned for the second-highest touchdown rate percentage (6.46%), I'm liking Smith's chances this week.
Because the Bengals have definitely had some issues with quarterbacks as they have given up two or more touchdowns to quarterbacks each week since week 2. I think Smith gets a pair of touchdowns too, if not more, and at this price that's a nice profit.
Week 11 Running Back DFS GPP Value Play
Lamical Perine at Chargers (DraftKings $4400, FanDuel $5400)
I know I like Lamical Perine more than the average fantasy analyst. I have zero affinity for the Jets or even the Florida Gators. But you bet I was hooting and hollering when this happened:
Lamical Perine’s first career TD pic.twitter.com/XPkOxyDdun
— Nick de la Torre (@NickdelaTorreGC) October 25, 2020
And perhaps it's because the Jets are coming off a bye. I think many have forgotten that Adam Gase said Perine will be the lead back moving forward.
Of course, what exactly that will mean is open to interpretation. So let me go Smilin' Jack Ross on you and give you these facts and they are indisputable:
1) The Chargers are allowing 4.87 yards per carry.
2) They have given up between 22 and 32 fantasy points per game to RBs over their last four games.
Perine is definitely a GPP-only play as he will likely be low owned, but should be a superb value play this week.
Week 11 Wide Receiver DFS GPP Value Play
Jalen Reagor at Cleveland Browns (DraftKings $4,300, FanDuel $5,600)
Last week, I correctly predicted that Jalen Reagor would outproduce Travis Fulgham. I got bad news Fulgham owners, it's gonna be deja-vu all over again this week. Travis Fulgham is likely to draw Denzel Ward, one of the better corners in the league. That however will help enable Reagor to beat the other Brown DBs, and thus he should excel again this week. Reagor is the outside receiver but often lines up in the slot (40% of the time last week). That's particularly noteworthy because Cleveland's biggest weakness on defense is allowing touchdowns to slot WRs. They have allowed nearly one per game.
Cleveland is allowing over 15 receptions per game to wideouts over the previous four weeks, which ranks ninth-worst in the league. And the Browns are allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to WRs per game. Meanwhile, in four games Reagor is averaging just under double-digit PPR Fantasy points. Reagor is slowly becoming Carson Wentz's number one option and has 6.5 targets per game since his return from injury. There aren't many options that are better in this price range.
Week 11 Tight End DFS GPP Value Play
Donald Parham Jr. vs Jets (DraftKings $2,500, FanDuel $4,300)
So, follow my logic here. The Jets are going to give the Chargers all they got. I think Herbert and company win this one, but it's going to take using all of the weapons at Herbert's disposal and that includes their third TE.
Parham is not a volume play, at least not at this time. However, hitting the measuring tape at 6'8" he is often a red zone threat. Remember when Chris Berman and Tom Jackson used to refer to Chris Carter and others by saying, "All he does is catch touchdowns!". Well, that's Parham!
Despite less than half a dozen targets this year, he already has two touchdowns. And he would have had three if not for a replay review that should have been called a TD. Given that all four members of the Jets starting secondary are under 6'2", I'd expect the Chargers to try and exploit that matchup. They have after all given up six touchdowns to tight ends already and And at this low price, it's a perfect week 11 GPP value play.
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