RADIO
A key part of doing a fantasy draft is avoiding players who find themselves in a bad situation. The wrong pick can completely tank your season.
Today, let's talk about some potential busts at the guard position. For whatever reason -- be it talent, lack of opportunity, or some combination of those two things -- these are players who I'm actively avoiding in my fantasy leagues this season.
Let's look at five guards who have bust potential this year in fantasy basketball leagues.
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Kyrie Irving - Brooklyn Nets
Last season wasn't the best for Irving. He missed 52 of the team's 72 games over the year, and that limited his fantasy upside quite a bit. Even missing all of those games, Irving was somehow able to finish the season with 952+ fantasy points (47.6 FP/G) and was the highest-scoring fantasy player among anyone with fewer than 34 games played.
On a more comparable per-game and per-minute stats, Irving ranked 12th in both categories, which is as good as it gets. Only James Harden and Trae Young finished the regular season with higher per-game and per-minute fantasy scores, which is all you need to know about Irving's exploits.
The problem for Irving is that entering 2021 he will be sharing the floor with another top-tier player in Kevin Durant. While they should elevate each other, and play complementary positions, Durant will undoubtedly take shots from Irving and reduce Kyrie's usage. On top of that, I haven't even mentioned the possibility of James Harden joining Brooklyn via trade. If that comes to finally happen, you can pretty much forget about Irving's upside. Unless the NBA allows games to be played with two basketballs on the court at the same time, at least.
Kemba Walker - Boston Celtics
Walker poses an interesting case. Boston acquired Kemba from Charlotte for last year, and while the point guard wasn't bad at all, he was a little bit disappointing all things considered. With the Celtics still looking like contenders in the East, not many guards will be drafted ahead of Walker leading up to next season.
Kemba was the 24th-best guard in total fantasy points last season, but he was totally overvalued with a second-round ADP in 10-team leagues. Among guards with at least 2000+ fantasy points scored through the full season, Walker ranked last in ROI (ADP divided by overall rank at the end of the year), averaged the 10th-fewest FP/G among the 25 players in that group, and sit at the middle of the pack in FP/Min (12th of 25).
Boston has lost Gordon Hayward to Charlotte this offseason and added veteran Jeff Teague to the point-guard rotation. That means the Cs now have Kemba, Marcus Smart, and Teague (at the very least) sharing minutes in the guard slots. Kemba also missed time due to injury last year, playing just 56 of Boston's 72 total games, which is another upside-killer he's got attached to him. He's also expected to miss time at the beginning of this season.
D'Angelo Russell - Minnesota Timberwolves
The Wolves made both Russell's and Karl-Anthony Towns' dreams come to life when they reunited the longtime friends in Minny. Devin Booker (the Third Amigo) might or might not join them in the future, but at least two-thirds of the group are already in cold Minnesota.
Russell played for two teams last year, which is nothing you really love as that means continuous adaptation and lowers a player's upside. Even more, both Golden State and Minny weren't even close to playoff teams (just look at who made the top-two in this past draft...), let alone contenders. While Russell was excellent on a fantasy per-game (10th-best guard) and a per-minute (8th) basis, his overall fantasy scoring was rather bad. That's mostly because of his 45 games played, which lowered his ceiling over the year a ton.
The numbers DLo put up while playing for the Wolves (12 games) were virtually the same as those he posted in Golden State, with slight variations in points and rebounding, but nothing notable. The Wolves will start the season hyped a bit after drafting the no. 1 player this offseason and featuring both DLo and KAT healthy and ready to go together--along with first overall pick Anthony Edwards--which could put Russell's ADP even above his last season 38th position. The truth is, though, we have yet to see DLo in Minnesota on a long run of games and minutes, and although a big like KAT should help him there is ample chance Russell turns into a bust relative to his draft position.
Jrue Holiday - Milwaukee Bucks
I guess this depends on how you look at Jrue's move from NOLA to Milwaukee. For one, Holiday is moving from a rebuilding team in the Pels to a loaded squad featuring two top-tier talents such as Giannis and Khris Middleton. And it is not that Milwaukee won't be looking into adding even more firepower trying to convince Giannis to sign a contract extension--Bogdan Bogdanovic already slipped through their fingers, though.
That move will most surely raise Holiday's ceiling, if only because he'll be passing the ball to the likes of Giannis and Khris instead of J.J. Redick and Jahlil Okafor. Sure, Ingram was part of the Pels, but other than that neither the system or the rest of the pieces around (Zion just shared 499 minutes with Jrue last season, less than 25% of Holiday's total playing time over the year).
That move will, also, cut Holiday's upside a bit as he won't be as prominent an offensive player as he was last season. Ingram logged the highest usage among Pelicans at just 28%. Giannis sat at 37.6%, with Middleton clocking in at 26.8% already. And based on the team's minute usage, the Bucks will also limit Jrue's minutes to 30 per game tops, while Holiday's played 34+ per game last season.
Malcolm Brogdon - Indiana Pacers
Staying with the Bucks to a certain extent, what about Malcolm Brogdon? He left Milwaukee last season flipping the Bucks for the Pacers, and the results were middling. Brogdon finished as the 22nd-best guard in 2020 with 1867+ fantasy points over the year and averages of 34.6 FP/G and 1.12 FP/Min. In 10-team leagues, that meant Brogdon wasn't even a top-20 guard or a starter at either guard spot, but rather a UTIL play at best.
I don't think Brogdon's average performance will kill his ADP in 2021 drafts, though. In fact, he was only the 64th player off draft boards last fall and I think his ADP will actually rise leading up to next season. The Pacers missed on Gordon Hayward, but at least for now are keeping Victor Oladipo in town along with Domantas Sabonis, Myles Turner, and a very surprising--and bubble-sensation--T.J. Warren. This team hasn't changed that much, and it is probable they opt to enter rebuilding-mode halfway through the season if Vic starts to show signs of a potential goodbye come next free agency.
Brogdon's shooting from range was rather bad, ranking 114th of 130 players with at least 200+ 3PA on the year, and he was only good on the assist department averaging 8.2 per 36 minutes. Other than that, though, I don't think Brogdon is a sound pick to make early in next-season drafts, which, again, I certainly expect other fantasy GMs to do for one reason or another, converting Malcolm in a bust in 2021.
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