RADIO
Now that we know where all of the players from this year's draft have landed, it's time to get to doing some dynasty rookie drafts.
A lot of years, there's a clear person to pick with that No. 1 rookie pick. Remember how Saquon Barkley was the unanimous 1.01 a few years back?
It's less clear this year, especially in non-Superflex drafts. But that's why we're here! Let's discuss who the 1.01 should be in dynasty rookie drafts.
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SuperFlex: This One's Easy
We don't need to talk too much about who to take with the 1.01 in SuperFlex leagues. You're taking Trevor Lawrence.
Nothing matters more in SF than having an elite quarterback, at least to me. And this draft has one of those generational talents at quarterback: Trevor Lawrence.
Lawrence has been the consensus No. 1 pick in this year's real draft for as long as we've known that he was in this draft class. As I wrote about him in a piece earlier this month for this site:
Lawrence can play in any scheme. He can make any throw. And yes, he had the benefit at Clemson of having some really, really good weapons around him, but there's talent in Jacksonville. Marvin Jones Jr. was brought in this offseason. D.J. Chark and Laviska Shenault Jr. are on this team. And they drafted one of Lawrence's Clemson weapons in Travis Etienne.
I honestly don't have much to say about Lawrence that hasn't already been said. He's the best quarterback prospect in years. The few holes in his game seem fixable. Lawrence is going to be a star, and while the Jaguars have historically been a poorly managed team, they seem like they're possibly heading in the right direction on the offensive side with the additions they've made and with new head coach Urban Meyer.
Look, there are some really interesting quarterbacks in this draft class, and someone could even wind up better than Lawrence down the line! But Lawrence is the most sure-thing quarterback since who...Andrew Luck? Or Peyton Manning back in 98?
In SuperFlex, you take that guy at the 1.01. He was the whole point that you tanked your season last year -- don't let something silly like "Trey Lance getting to learn from Kyle Shanahan" or "well, I liked Najee Harris's landing spot so do I really need a quarterback" change your mind here. Take Lawrence.
But What About Non-SF Drafts?
This is where things get a lot more interesting, because there's a lot of different places you can go with that 1.01 in a non-SuperFlex league.
Amongst our ranking team, there's not much disagreement, as all three people have Najee Harris as their top rookie in the dynasty rankings.
And why wouldn't they? Harris ended up in the perfect landing spot with a Steelers team that has a big hole at running back, with James Conner gone and players like Benny Snell Jr. and Anthony McFarland Jr. showing some promise, but never really transcending that promise.
Harris is basically the only running back in this draft class to land in a spot where he won't instantly be in a committee. And Mike Tomlin teams have traditionally been really good at running the ball -- we all used to talk about how good Le'Veon Bell was, but his two seasons out of Pittsburgh have not been good. He averaged just 29.8 rushing yards per game last season and was a non-factor in the receiving game. And don't forget that time Bell was injured in 2015 and a 32-year-old DeAngelo Williams stepped in and led the NFL in rushing touchdowns.
So, yeah, you can't go wrong with Najee Harris here as the 1.01. He took a leap as a receiving threat last year at Alabama, garnering 13.4 percent of the targets. He also had over 1,400 rushing yards and 30 total touchdowns. Harris is just a force when he has the ball, and the Steelers are built to get him the ball a lot. And with non-committee backs becoming a bit of a rarity in the league, Harris is someone you should be all over.
But, he's not the only answer at 1.01, even if he's probably the right answer.
Maybe you're desperate for help at wide receiver. In that case, I can get behind the idea of taking Bengals receiver Ja'Marr Chase -- I mean heck, I've already seen him go first in the only rookie draft I'm currently doing.
The argument for Chase is pretty clear: he's reunited with quarterback Joe Burrow, and in 2019 those two put up some historic numbers together.
That year, Joe Burrow threw for 5,671 yards and 60 touchdowns. 1,780 of those yards and 20 of the touchdowns went Chase's way. Just look at where he ranked that season on the SEC/NCAA leaderboard, per Sports Reference:
Just some highly productive stuff. And that seventh-place ranking in TDs responsible for? He ranked behind five quarterbacks. (And was tied for seventh with Najee Harris, just to bring everything full circle here.)
Chase can play all over the field. He has the speed to make big plays in the deep passing game and the strength to make big plays in the shorter passing game. The Burrow/Chase connection has the potential to be one of the NFL's best, making Chase a potential fantasy WR1 for years to come.
But the argument for him as the 1.01 is less about what he'll do on the field and more about positional longevity and what a dynasty owner values. Chase will be good for a longer period of time than Najee Harris will because that's how those positions work. Harris has more value in the short term, because running backs don't take as long to adjust to the NFL and their best years are early on. Chase could play into his 30s and still be a top receiver. In a way, this comes down to what you want the most -- the guy who'll help you the most in 2021-2023, or the guy who'll help you the most long term.
Oh, there's also one more option: Kyle Pitts.
I'm not going to spend much time here because I just don't really love this idea, but Pitts could be a generational talent at tight end. We could be talking about a perennial top-three guy at tight end. His mixture of ball skills and size and speed is virtually unmatched at the position, and he'll spend some time out in the slot or out wide.
Still, to take him at 1.01 is to bet on a historical outlier. Top tight ends don't produce what top backs and receivers do. Travis Kelce has 312.8 PPR points last year to finish as TE1. Three running backs and three receivers still finished ahead of him, even though Kelce had the first 300-point season at tight end since 2013. He was historically good but still was just the seventh-highest scoring skill position player.
I love Pitts around 1.03 or 1.04, but when a potential top-tier running back and top-tier wide receiver are available ahead of him, I have to go with those guys.
Verdict
So, to answer the original question, who should be the 1.01 pick?
Your answer to that might come down to what you think of your league. In a dynasty that's been around 15 years, thinking far down the line can be smart. In a dynasty league that's been around for two seasons with some people off Twitter? Then maybe don't be thinking about how 2025 Ja'Marr Chase will be a better fantasy option than 2025 Najee Harris.
Ultimately, I think it's Najee Harris, but I won't hate you for picking Ja'Marr Chase. I don't think it's Kyle Pitts, though.
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