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The NBA playoffs keep rolling along. Three games on tonight's docket, though today's biggest news is that Celtics head coach Brad Stevens is moving into a front office role with the team. Too bad there wasn't a prop pick for that!
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PrizePicks has two types of games. The first type of game is known as Fantasy Score, which consists of selecting various players and trying to determine if they will go over or under their projected fantasy points in a game. The second game is known as Single Stat. For NBA, Single Stat consists of projecting the point, assist, rebound, or three-point totals for some of the league's top players. You can mix and match players from each type of game in your entry or select all of your plays from the same type of game. Once you have selected your players and props, you can choose the aforementioned flex play or power play option. For today's article, we are going to try and focus on the main board's Single Stat players and explain why players will/will not reach their projections.
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Single Stat NBA Totals
Ben Simmons over 16.5 points: While Simmons has hit this mark just once in the four games of this series, there's a pretty big material change to the equation this time, as Joel Embiid is doubtful for this game with a knee injury that he suffered in Game 4. Simmons took just five shot official shot attempts in that game, but the Wizards sent him to the line a lot. The loss of Embiid combined with Scott Brooks likely going back to that Hack-a-Ben strategy should help Simmons hit the over here, though it'll be close, as Tobias Harris will take on most of the offensive load. (Harris is at an o/u of 26.5 points, which is just about at the level where I don't feel comfortable making any kind of decision with him.)
Kevin Huerter over 8.5 points: Hmm. This seems...deceptively easy, but we're going to roll with it. Huerter has scored in (low) double-digits in there of the four gams of this series, and the only one that he didn't score over 8.5 happened because of a 25 percent shooting night from deep. His role is a lot of spot-up threes, and that means he can get to this number pretty quickly. He averaged 11.9 points per game in the regular season, and 11.3 in the regular season against the Knicks. Sure, his minutes are down from the 37.3 he averaged in the meetings with New York, but he's still someone who can score some points in a hurry.
Donovan Mitchell over 4.0 assists: Mitchell averaged 5.2 assists per game in the regular season, the highest mark of his career. In the playoffs, that's dipped a bit to 4.3, but he's averaging 8.0 potential assists per game this postseason, so the opportunities are there for Mitchell, who is expanding his game and looking to get teammates involved more than ever before. Also worth noting is that Mitchell had zero assists in the first playoff game, so he's averaging six per game over the past two.
Clint Capela under 13.5 rebounds: 13.5 is a really high number. Yes, Capela is averaging 13 per game in the series, but he's surpassed that number just once in four games. It's really hard to pull down at least 14 rebounds in a game and while Capela can clearly do that, I'd rather go with the averages here and project him to not reach this mark, considering he hasn't reached it in 75 percent of his playoff games this season. (This is also a pick I feel...less confident in, because Capela could just decide to grab 20 boards or something.)
Joe Ingles under 1.5 3-PT made: In this series, Joe Ingles is averaging 1.8 threes per game on 43.8 percent shooting. That makes me a little nervous, as his four attempts from deep per game aren't enough for him to weather this pick if he has a poor shooting night. Even though he averaged over two made threes per game in the regular season, Ingles has seen a drop in usage this postseason. Take Game 1 out of the equation, when he played 32 minutes in Utah's only loss of the series, and Ingles is averaging 24.9 minutes per game, with 1.3 threes per contest and just 3.0 attempts per game from deep. I think his waning minutes makes the under a solid bet here.
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