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Turns out last Friday wasn't our luck changing for more than a day as Saturday saw us hit by our old friend 'the near miss'. The Cubs and Cardinals missed the over by one run after the Cubs got shut out despite scoring ten runs twice in their previous four games. The Angels were also shut out, this time by Chris Flexen and the Mariners but thankfully the Dodgers went wild and knocked out Caleb Smith after an inning to prevent him from hitting the over in strikeouts. Today's slate is difficult given the lack of confirmation over some starting pitchers but we'll try our best to navigate through what we do know. Just double-check before wagering.
Before we begin, I want to remind you that gambling should be fun. When the fun stops, stop. Never bet more than you're willing to lose. I'm no professional gambler, just a guy who loves the game and likes a bet. But I'll still be giving 100% in my research to make us some money. Everything I put here, I'll be backing myself so we're in this together. I'll also be keeping track of only my picks so I don't drag down the numbers from my colleagues.
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
- Moneyline Record: 2-6 (-3.52 U)
- O/U Record: 5-8-1 (-2.58 U)
- Runline Record: 1-4 (-2.42 U)
- 1st 5 Innings Record: 5-12 (-5.12 U)
- Prop Record: 15-11 (+4.20 U)
- 2021 Total Record: 28-41-1 (-9.44 U)
Houston Astros at Chicago White Sox
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: HOU -137, CWS +127
HOU: Lance McCullers Jr. | CWS: Dylan Cease (TBC)
* We're still waiting for Cease to be confirmed as the starter.
The Astros we unrepresented at the All-Star game after everyone dropped out for a variety of reasons. We do know Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman and Aledmys Diaz won't be available today as they are on the IL while Michael Brantley was nursing a sore oblique last weekend. They've only scored 42 runs in their ten July games so far as they'll look to get their offense back on track in the second half.
They will be starting McCullers Jr. who has been excellent this year with a 2.94 ERA from 14 starts. He faced the White Sox back on June 20th and allowed just two earned runs in 6.0 IP from two hits and four walks. He's on a streak of 11 starts without allowing more than three earned runs and has just two starts allowing more than two earned runs in that stretch.
The White Sox have no shortage of injuries themselves with long-term absentees Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert now joined on the IL by Yasmani Grandal. They've had a productive month in July, scoring 68 runs in their ten games although they've come against the Orioles (27 runs), Twins (23 runs) and Tigers (18 runs) who rank 30th, 24th and 18th respectively in starting pitchers ERA.
The expectation is Cease will be on the mound for the White Sox today. He faced the Astros back on June 17th and gave up six earned runs in just 3.1 IP and has now allowed five or more earned runs four times in his last ten starts. His other outings have been excellent, allowing two or fewer runs in his other six starts.
Both starting pitchers (McCullers especially) have been good this year and despite Cease having a blow-up from time to time, he's been very good in between those duds. With both lineups missing key pieces, I fancy this to be a bit of a pitching duel and the under looks good.
Pick: Over/under - Under 9 total runs (-120) 1 Unit
Given the uncertainty about the starting pitchers still, I'm going to be putting in two odds-on winners I'm very high on as a double.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-200) @ Colorado Rockies (+180)
Antonio Senzatela has been better at home than away (3.75 home ERA and 6.03 road ERA) but his two starts against the Dodgers back in April saw him give up 11 earned runs in 6.0 IP. Meanwhile, Julio Urias' two starts against the Rockies totaled 12.0 IP and saw him give up just five earned runs. Both pitchers have one home and one road start against their opponents.
The Dodgers ended the first half by putting up 31 runs against the Diamondbacks in their three-game weekend series, with 22 runs coming in Saturday's contest. The Rockies tallied just eight runs in their three-game series against the Padres but did manage to win two of the games. After beating the Dodgers on Opening Day, the Rockies have lost their subsequent six games against the reigning World Series Champs.
Cleveland Indians (+181) @ Oakland Athletics (-200)
The A's are starting All-Star pitcher Chris Bassitt and his 3.28 ERA as they look to close the 3.5 game gap between themselves and the Astros. After four straight series losses, they righted the ship with back-to-back wins last weekend against the Rangers to take a 2-1 series win.
Cleveland snapped a nine-game losing streak to take all three against the Royals (one postponement) but they're just 15-25 against teams with a winning record this year. No team with a winning record has a lower winning percentage against .500 or better teams. Eli Morgan and his 8.44 ERA will be taking the mound in a bid to improve on that.
Pick: Moneyline two-game parlay - Dodgers and Athletics (+125) 1 Unit
Prop Bet
Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves
Michael Wacha has 18 strikeouts in 14.0 IP over his last three outings. They include a five-inning and six-inning start so he's capable of going deeper into a game right now. He still struck out five against the Nationals in 3.0 IP of relief in between those two starts.
Wacha gets the benefit of facing the opposing pitcher today and a Braves team without Ronald Acuna Jr., but who traded for Joc Pederson and his 25.8% K% this year. Collectively, the Braves 25.2% K% against right-handed pitching this year is eighth-worst in MLB. Since June 01st, that K% is 26.1% which is the fourth-worst in the Majors.
Pick: Wacha over 4.5 Ks (+125) 1 Unit
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