RADIO
We're this close to the regular season, and while there is a ton of hype about the incoming rookies (check out all of our NBA Draft analysis here) we still need to reflect on the 2020-2021 season and what happened just a few months back in time. We had another short NBA offseason this year and it's time to do some evaluation on another unique season as we prepare for the 2022 campaign.
We have nearly a full season of data for most players to crunch now. It's time to reflect on the 2020-21 season to see who were our "risers" and "fallers" in the rankings. A lot of young players are naturally going to be on the rise, while some older hoopers will definitely be part of the season fallers.
In this article, I will feature some of the players labeled as Forwards (SF/PF) who took the biggest jumps in their output so you can properly assess their value entering the 2022 draft season as it heats up with tipoff-week approaching.
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Julius Randle, PF/C - New York Knicks
2020 - 29th
2021 - 4th
Julius was the fourth-best player of the 2021 NBA season in a top-5 that was closed by the very own Giannis Antetokounmpo and that included MVP Nikola Jokic, Russ, and Luka. Insane in the brain to find a New York Knick there, much more a good-not-great career player in Randle. But here we are, and things shouldn't get worse for Randle going forward. I'm not saying Randle is going to put up another top-5 finish next season, but Randle's game evolution in 2021 was fantastic and should remain with him.
For the first time in his seven-year career, Randle put up more than 3.6 APG as he finished last season with a 24-10-6-1 average line. Randle had dub-dubbed as a Lakers sophomore but with a borderline 11-10-2 average line, though. Leading the league in minutes thanks to Coach Thibs' way of working, Randle was named to his first All-Star game. Randle is entering his age-27 season, is still young, and still has room for improvisation even though that sounds ridiculous.
Randle, even on the high-height side of fantasy forwards spectrum (he has C eligibility), was part of a select club of players reaching 20+ PPG and 6+ APG over the 2021 season. Only 11 guys got there, five of them being guards. If we factor rebounds in, Randle finished last year as one of only four players with a 22-10-6 average line. The ADP will be sky-high, but these Knicks look rock solid and Randle is a lock to be a top-25 player on back-to-back seasons.
Zion Williamson, SF/PF - New Orleans Pelicans
2020 - 247th-best overall
2021 - 16th
Welp. It took Zion all of two years and barely a full combined season (85 total games played in his rookie and sophomore campaigns) to dominate the game. As simple as that. Williamson's rookie season was cut down to only 24 games after he had to wave goodbye to his first year as a pro. In 2021 he got injured once more, but with 61 games played by that time he had done enough to finish as the 16th-best player in fantasy leagues. Only Bradley Beal finished higher than Zion while playing fewer games (60) in 2021. LOL.
That stupidly clogged thing above this paragraph is Zion's 2021 shooting chart. Yes, he kind of worked in the paint, I guess. Zion is just a ridiculously unique basketball player. He either attempts layups and dunks in the restricted area or shots the odd triple here and there. And he does it all with such a touch that he just became the sixth player in NBA history to attempt 1,000+ FGA while scoring at least 60% of them and the first to hit 61%+ of them on that attempt-threshold after Wilt Chamberlain.
In case you don't know about it, Williamson will play the whole 2022 season as a 21-year-old bully-boy. This monster has had seasons of 22-6-2 and 27-7-3-1 average lines. He's just scratching the floor (yes, not the ceiling) of his abilities and he will keep on growing for years to come. The hype will be ridiculous, and some will go contrarian and say that he can't shoot long balls, or contribute high rebounds, etc, etc... Close your ears to those voices and make sure you have Zion in your roster if you want to win your league.
Michael Porter Jr., SF/PF - Denver Nuggets
2020 - 211th
2021 - 53rd
Denver took a massive gamble in drafting MPJ back in 2018 with a top-14 lottery pick, but at this point in time, it's starting to become very clear how the Nuggets hit the jackpot getting the injury-concerning Michael Porter Jr. While Porter missed what should have been in his rookie season he's already played 55 and 61 games in the last two, including 54 starts in 2021 for a Nuggets team that had to endure a tough year when it came to missing players but still featured a breakout-player in MPJ and the eventual MVP in Nikola Jokic.
Not only did Porter improve his overall game, but he did so while playing a heavier role for the Nuggets. Porter's defense is still troubling, sure, but he went from averaging a 9-4-1 offensive line in 16 MPG (2020) to a much healthier 19-7-1-1-1 last season. Obviously, the minutes jumped to 31.3 per game, and that helped, but even then and while he lowered his averages at boards/dimes/steals, he did so while getting a 21.7% usage rate as a daily starter while racking up 6.9 WS over his lower 2.9-mark in 2020.
MPJ's bread and butter are to be found in his scoring prowess. He put up the 16th-highest (min. 1,900 minutes played) points-per-shot mark with a 1.40 average in 2021, and finished 29th in that same group of players with 19.0 PPG. Same as Zion Williamson (read above), MPJ is still hyper young but already massively talented. The absence of Jamal Murray forced Porter--even more--into the spotlight, and he didn't disappoint. With Murray most probably out of the 2022 full season, that should only give MPJ more chances to keep racking up numbers on offense.
Jerami Grant, SF/PF - Detroit Pistons
2020 - 116th
2021 - 61st
Always bet on yourself, folks. That's what Jerami Grant did, and at the end of the day, we can all agree his decision was fantastic. Grant opted to sign with the Pistons over the Nuggets (similar deals were offered to him on a purely economic basis) reasoning that he would rather be the go-to player of his franchise rather than a secondary piece. And he won the day.
After stints in Philly, OKC, and Denver, Grant finally got the role he wanted in Detroit. He played 33.9 MPG last season in Motown and raised his average line to a glossy 22-4-3 per game to go with 0.6 SPG and 1.1 BPG. He slightly regressed in terms of shooting efficiency, but that is reasonable considering his bulkier usage rates (from 18% in 2020 to 28.5% last year) and workload (from 8.9 FGA per game to 17.3).
While Grant didn't get better on D (in fact, he finished last season with a career-worst mark in DRtg) and lowered his offensive rating (reasonable given his new team-leading role), the forward still performed to great levels of play. Not that it means a lot, but voters awarded Grant the only two first-place votes for the Most Improved Player award that didn't go Randle's way. Detroit is just starting its rebuilding process and Grant should be a core piece of the squad for the next couple of seasons before he signs a new deal with the Pistons or elsewhere.
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