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With 11 games on tap, we have an awesome slate of NBA action tonight. I'm coming off a 3-1 night on Wednesday and feeling good about some picks tonight although Vegas is quickly catching up on these totals and spreads and making it a little harder each day to find the soft spots I will admit.
The more data we get, the better I'll feel about the reliability of the models, so let's just have some fun and keep those bets small at first. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Friday, November 12th, 2021. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 20-18
- Against the Spread 11-3
- Over/Under 6-6
- Teasers/Parlays 3-9
We continue to crush ATS so far while we are now sitting at .500 on the O/U bets and lagging behind in parlays.
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted only three spots where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
Detroit Pistons (+5) @ Cleveland Cavaliers (201 total)
I'm pretty amazed my Cavs are 7-5 through 12 games considering the fact they haven't had Markkanen or Love now for over a week and they lost one of their best scorers Collin Sexton earlier this week. The remaining Cavs have been tough as nails, however, and had reeled off four straight wins before coming up just short against a solid Washington team on Wednesday night in a three-point loss.
For our betting purposes, there are two big stats that stand out to me. Cleveland is leading the league ATS this season with a 9-4 record and a solid +7.5 point differential. Meanwhile, Detroit has lost by an average of 10 points per loss this season and their only wins have come against other rebuilding teams like Houston (on Wednesday) and Orlando.
The Cavs are a cut above some of these lower-tier teams and I have them favored by 10 here. With all the trends lining up and a big gap in the projected vs actual spread, I have to be in on them at home against a very bad Detroit squad. I think the Cavs cover here and they are a really strong play for me.
The Pick: Cavs -5 (good up to -6.5) -115 DraftKings Sportsbook
Minnesota Timberwolves (+2.5) @ Los Angeles Lakers (224 total)
Let's head out west for a late-night game! The Lakers have clearly underachieved so far this season, but they have put together two solid wins in a row against Charlotte and Miami with the Miami OT win being the most impressive. They're still missing LeBron James, but Russell Westbrook and Anthony Davis are finally starting to gel on offense and Carmelo Anthony is playing some of the best basketball we have seen from him in a few years.
Meanwhile, the Wolves are spiraling having lost six straight. Not even 45 points from their young star Anthony Edwards could save them from a double-digit defeat against Golden State on Wednesday. They've had a brutal schedule lately, but they're really struggling on defense and have allowed 120+ points in three of their last four. This is a great matchup for Russ and AD tonight and this spread is way too low for the talent gap here. If the Lakers keep improving as they have, they are going to rise up the standings and I think they cover fairly easily tonight. I have them winning by 6-7 points, but i am comfy taking them up to -4.5.
The Pick: Lakers -2.5 (good up to -4.5), -105 DraftKings Sportsbook
NBA Over/Under Betting Picks
New York Knicks (-1.5) @ Charlotte Hornets (224 total)
We have an OVER alert! It feels like this has been the season of unders, but as the totals drop there are still going to be spots where we can actively attack the over and this game is one of them!
The Hornets are playing FAST this year and while the Knicks are pretty much an average-paced offense, that is still an improvement over the slow style of play we saw from them last year. Both teams have improved their offensive efficiency as well, which bodes well for the scoring in this game.
Because the game is projected to be close, we might see the starters and main scorers for each team get some additional run tonight as well. I like the Knicks to win, but I think Charlotte has shown this season that they hang with just about anyone.
Let's talk trends! The Hornets have hit their overs in 9 of 13 games this season which leads the NBA. The Knicks have dropped to 6-6 but that mark is still well ahead of the field as only seven teams have hit their overs in 50% of their games this year.
I have it projected around 228 and I will bet the over as high as 226.
The Pick: OVER 224 (good up to 226), -105 DraftKings Sportsbook
Brooklyn Nets (-8.5) @ New Orleans Pelicans (213.5 total)
Now it's time for the unders. This game features two teams that are playing slow (third-lowest projected pace on the slate) and who are hitting the under at extremely high rates. The Nets and Pelicans are both 9-3 on unders this year and Brooklyn has a whopping -10 point differential on totals this season.
I have this one pegged around 107 points, which gives us a good bit of wiggle room. Brandon Ingram could return for New Orleans and increase their offensive capabilities a bit, but Brooklyn still just grinds their opponents to death in the half-court and the Pelicans have been a much slower team this season without Lonzo Ball and Eric Bledsoe to push the ball in transition.
The Pick: UNDER 213.5 (good down to 211), -110 DraftKings Sportsbook
Atlanta Hawks (+4.5) @ Denver Nuggets (215.5 total)
One more total pick today, I must be feeling confident! Here's another game that rates really well in the model as I have it around 210 tonight. Denver went under 200 total points in their win against Indiana the other night, but that was without their best player Nikola Jokic. They get the Joker back tonight, but are still missing Michael Porter Jr. and have been a very slow, methodical team on offense this season.
Atlanta plays slow, too, and this game has the second-slowest projected pace tonight after Detroit-Cleveland. When we look at the trends for confirmation, we see that Denver is 9-2 on unders this season and Atlanta has been 6-6, but with a negative 2-point differential. Denver's games have gone under by a total of 15.7 points this year - which the most in the league. I will keep playing these bets when the trends and models line up and I feel pretty good about this one going under.
The Pick: UNDER 215.5 (good down to 211), -110 DraftKings Sportsbook
I am keeping it simple here and rolling with a money line parlay. I usually like to keep these to 2-3 teams but I am adding a fourth team tonight to boost the odds and get another team in the mix (Denver) who I think wins at home.
The Pick: Chicago/GSW Moneyline parlay (+115 DraftKings Sportsbook)
NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix
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Here's my team stats matrix for use when betting player props.
For example, Houston allows the most steals per game to opponents this season 2.6 more than the league average.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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