RADIO
Welcome back to another edition of my NBA best bets as I hope to begin Thanksgiving week with a bang! My last article was Friday night and the results were mixed again with Charlotte winning and going over their total, while the Clippers lost after being up double-digits at the half and the Nuggets-Bulls game went over the total. Once Nikola Jokic was ruled out, I knew that might be trouble as Denver has been playing much faster (and worse defense) when he's out of the lineup.
We have a full slate of games tonight with twenty NBA teams in action. However, I will warn you that there are a bunch of big spreads and projected blowouts. And Vegas is catching on to these totals and dropping the O/U numbers accordingly, giving us less to work with. I still think we can find a few spots to attack here, but there were fewer bets that I landed on than you might expect on a ten-game slate.
It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if you're discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Monday, November 22nd, 2021. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 24-31
- Against the Spread 13-7
- Over/Under 7-11
- Teasers/Parlays 3-13
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
Brooklyn Nets (-6.5) @ Cleveland Cavaliers (209 total)
Here we are - with me having to recommend my favorite team, the upstart Cleveland Cavs in a game that no one would expect them to compete in at the start of the season.
But the Cavs did compete with Brooklyn last week when these teams faced off despite being down four starters. Brooklyn won by 10 at home and closed Cleveland out, but the Cavs stormed all the way back in the third quarter to make it a game.
Tonight, the Cavs should return Lauri Markkanen to the lineup and starting center Jarrett Allen. Lauri has been out for two weeks due to COVID protocols but I would expect him to be able to at least play 20-25 minutes in his return and Cleveland badly needs more size and shooting. With Allen, Love, and Markkannen now healthy, this Cavs team should be able to compete with Brooklyn tonight at home.
Cleveland has been one of the best teams ATS this season and I have Brooklyn favored by a point or two at best. Yes, they are going to be without Collin Sexton the rest of the year, but this Cleveland team is scrappy and Brooklyn has not pulled away from inferior teams very often.
The Pick: Cavs +6.5 (-105 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Indiana Pacers (+3) @ Chicago Bulls (211.5 total)
The Bulls just continue to keep balling out despite the absence of their star center Nikola Vucevic. They're now 4-2 in their last six games since Vuc was ruled out due to COVID protocols and have collected some really quality wins (Lakers, Clippers, Nuggets, Knicks) during that stretch.
They're now 12-5 ATS on the season and have been right up there with Golden State as far as one of my favorite teams to bet on with their ability to cover and win close games. Indiana isn't a bad team by any means and they are finally healthy now for the first time in a while. But they've been disappointing overall and very inconsistent. The Pacers are 9-9 ATS with a fairly neutral overall +/- margin. Give me the home team here and they're laying only three points. If it comes down to the final possession, we could be in trouble, but I like the Bulls to win here and pull away with free throws even if the game is competitive down the stretch.
The Pick: Bulls -3 (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
NBA Over/Under Betting Picks
Minnesota Timberwolves (-5) @ New Orleans Pelicans (213 total)
So I simply couldn't justify an OVERS today, despite the model liking the Celtics-Rockets. We continue to see the trends favor unders and I am going to continue to follow the data. I have this game pegged for around 209 points and we have some trends and data to back that play up.
Both teams have been going under their totals this season (Minnesota 68%, New Orleans 72%) and we have the largest aggregate under between them on the chart with a combined -7.9 margin on the season.
This is actually the third time these teams have met this year. Both meetings were back in October and those games ended with 185 and 205 total points.
This game projects for a neutral pace of 99 possessions and the lack of offensive efficiency from both squads means we are trending under here once again. I am going under, but there's less margin for error than I would like so I'm only betting it down to 211 here.
The Pick: UNDER 213 (good down to 211), -110 DraftKings Sportsbook
I don't really love these spreads or totals too much, so I am going back the well today and building a big ol' money line parlay. I'm backing five home favorites here, four of them are double-digit faves with the Bulls being the only team that isn't heavily favored.
The Pick:: BOS/CHI/UTA/MIL/ATL ML Parlay (+200 DraftKings Sportsbook)
NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix
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Here's my team stats matrix for use when betting player props.
For example, Houston allows the most steals per game to opponents this season with 3.24 more than the league average.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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