X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Pickups & Streamers
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ADP Rankings Debate - Cody Bellinger vs. Freddie Freeman

As with a number of ADP debates, Cody Bellinger and Freddie Freeman both offer the skills for success in 2018.

Each first baseman is going in the first two or three rounds of fantasy baseball drafts, but chances are you'll only be able to snag one. Which young slugger will deliver better value in 2018?

Brant Chesser and Chris Doyle debate the draft value of each player in the next of our rankings debate series.

Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers received five total writing awards and 13 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association, tops in the industry! Congrats to all the award winners and nominees including Best MLB Series, NFL Series, NBA Writer, PGA Writer and Player Notes writer of the year. Be sure to follow their analysis, rankings and advice all year long, and win big with RotoBaller! Read More!

 

Cody Bellinger (1B/OF LAD)

(NFBC ADP 25, Rotoballer 1B5/25th overall)

Although most fantasy owners prefer to have a batting average cushion, power, and speed with their foundational players, Cody Bellinger offers two of the three. Many experts are pointing to the small 28 at-bat sample against the Astros to point to a glaring weakness in his swing. Yes, he does have an uppercut swing, which leaves him susceptible to curveballs, but he also has the thump and exit velocity (96.6 MPH on FB/LD in 2017-16th in MLB) to hit another 35 home runs in 2018.

As a few items were mentioned in the NL West column, Bellinger swung and missed (34.0 0-Contact% and 48.8 K%) on plenty of curveballs outside of the zone throughout the 2017 season. When he made contact, his power allowed him to post a 1.007 OPS and .341 ISO against curveballs. While it is another small sample, one could point to his 96.3 MPH exit velocity on fly ball results against curveballs. A counterpoint would be his .432 xSLG against benders.

Chasing sliders (40.4 O-Contact% and 41.1 K%) outside of the zone lowered his batting average, but a .359 ISO, .876 OPS, and eight home runs against sliders vouch for his ability to square up pitches. He hit sliders well, as he posted a .551 xSLG, .365 xwOBA against the offering. Even though owners should account for those strikeouts, Bellinger's ability to hit sliders and curveballs with authority (97.5 MPH exit velocity on SL/CB) provides a decent floor for his power.

While his ability to launch (47.1 FB%) hard-hit balls (43.0 Hard%) backs a 35 home-run season, carrying over his swings and misses against breaking balls may cut into his batting average. Even with a lower batting average (.252 projection from Steamer), drawing walks (11.7 BB%), stealing double-digit bases (10), and RBI chances in the middle of the Dodgers lineup says that he can provide close to the same value in 2018.

His power provides most of the value, but his lineup and speed boost his earnings. The Dodgers were a top-ten offense (.771 OPS) in 2017, and Bellinger was successful on ten of his 13 stolen base attempts. With his 2017 success on the base paths, expect him to see enough green lights for double-digit SB.

While he doesn't have the strong plate discipline of Freeman, he did take plenty of walks (11.7% BB%) for a rookie. Monitor to see if he can reduce his 26.6% K%, which would provide some batting average help and move him closer to the league-average BA (.262) that Depth Charts projects.

Even though Freeman's batting average will lead to more fantasy value in 2018, Steamer projects Bellinger to hit six more homers and drive in five more runs than Freeman. When drafting Cody Bellinger, owners are not drafting him for his batting average. Owners building on batting average at the first base position will turn to Joey Votto and Freddie Freeman.

Advertising

Yes, Bellinger's Rookie of the Year season is inflating his price a bit; even if he falls a few home runs short of his 2017 totals, his power and speed can provide top-50 fantasy value.

 

Freddie Freeman (1B, ATL)

(NFBC ADP 21, Rotoballer 1B3/14th overall)

Freddie Freeman is a legitimate stud.

With a current ADP of 21, Freeman is solidly in the second round of drafts, and if you take a look at the players going ahead of him you could very well accept this. But Freddie Freeman is a potential top-five hitter in all of baseball. At his current ADP he’s actually a bit undervalued heading into 2018. Everything in Freddie’s profile points to a budding superstar.

His fly ball rates (40.5% in 2016 and 40.6% in 2017) and HR/FB rates (19.9% in 2016 and 2017) have held steady and are at neither the high or low end of the spectrum despite his excellent power production. His walk rate is 11.2% for his career after posting a 12.6% in 2017, while his strikeout rate dropped to a career-low 18.5%.

But perhaps the most impressive stat was in infield fly ball rate. In 2017, it was 0.0%. Yes, Freddie Freeman hit exactly zero infield fly balls last season, tops among qualified hitters and the only such player without a single pop up to the infield.

Freeman finished 2017 tied for 10th in barrels per plate appearance (Brls/PA) and posted a 152 wRC+, good for sixth in the majors behind only Mike Trout, Aaron Judge, Joey Votto, Jose Altuve and Giancarlo Stanton and ahead of first rounders Paul Goldschmidt and Charlie Blackmon.

Freeman had his coming out party after a rough start to 2016, and in the 600 or so plate appearances that followed (including the first month and a half of 2017 before he got hurt) he hit .340/.445/.688 with 39 HR, 110 R, 98 RBI and 8 SB for a 1.133 OPS.

The bat control, plate discipline and batted ball profile are all elite. There’s no doubt Freeman is on the cusp of superstardom, so why is he being drafted this “late”?

He’s got some proven commodities in front of him that have produced at an elite level year-after-year like Trout, Altuve and Goldschmidt. Votto is one of the best hitters in the game and Bryce Harper still has tantalizing potential after his tantalizing 2015 season.

But Freeman is right there with these studs and certainly worthy of a pick no later than 21st overall, or even earlier.

Advertising

Cody Bellinger is going four picks later at 25, but the amount of risk being absorbed here is simply too much for a second round pick. Sure, he’s got 40-homer potential, but the swing-and-miss in his game can’t be ignored, and opposing pitchers will have a lot more information on him heading into his sophomore season.

With Freeman just hitting his prime - not to mention the talent he’s about to be surrounded by on an up-and-coming Braves team - don’t hesitate to pull the trigger inside the top-20. He may not have the speed of a Goldschmidt or the elite, proven plate skills of a Votto, but his relative youth and all-around hitting profile could vault him into the conversation for top first baseman in the major leagues as early as this season.

If not for a wrist injury that caused him to miss six weeks of the 2017 season, Freeman would have more than likely hit a career-number of home runs. Even with the time missed Freeman hit 28 home runs and drove in 71 runs. Even though the lefty slugger's new home park is a perfect fit for his swing, he ended up with 17 away HR and 11 home HR. While the injury may have affected his power (93.8 MPH on FB/LD in 2017) in the second half, Freeman's ability to make consistent contact should be a batting average asset on fantasy rosters. With a full season of at-bats, Freeman could easily return first-round value and has a higher floor that his counterpart.

 

More 2018 MLB Ranking Debate Articles




LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Pickups & Streamers
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

WIN MORE IN 2024

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Pickups & Streamers
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ROTOBALLER PLAYER NEWS

RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Alexis Diaz fantasy baseball closers rankings draft sleepers waiver wire pickups

MLB Closers and Saves: Fantasy Baseball Depth Charts

Saves are an important component for many fantasy baseball leagues. Closers are one of the most volatile positions in fantasy baseball, and one of the highest turnover positions in MLB. Each year, closers drop like flies and many MLB teams make in-season changes due to injuries or poor performance. In addition to closers and saves, relief... Read More


Do These Prospects Matter for Fantasy Baseball?

The 2023 fantasy baseball season has been highlighted by the promotion of nearly two-dozen top prospects to the major leagues to impact fantasy rosters. This week's edition features one player who was called up as the piece was being written. Will these strong performers join the ranks of those who have moved to the majors... Read More


clayton kershaw fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers MLB injury news

articles report test

this is a test


Starting Pitcher Waiver Wire Pickups for Fantasy Baseball - Week 24

Welcome back! It's Week 24 of our fantasy baseball Starting Pitcher Waiver Wire Pickups series! There are just two precious weeks left, and every start is becoming more and more important as most of the fantasy baseball world is in playoff matchups. If you've made it this far, there's a good chance you don't really... Read More


Aaron Nola - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Starts & Sits for MLB Week 23 - All Starting Pitcher Matchups for Fantasy Baseball

Welcome back RotoBallers! Big week in fantasy leagues as we approach the end of the season and playoffs! As always, we are here with our starting pitcher starts and sits series to help you set those winning lineups for the week ahead! For those who are not familiar, RotoBaller puts out a weekly grid of... Read More


Gunnar Henderson - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Prospects, Draft Sleepers

Points League Hitters: Waiver Wire Pickups for Fantasy Baseball - Week 24

Welcome to Week 24 and our fantasy baseball waiver wire hitters. We'll be doing this roundup of points leagues every week here at RotoBaller, with waiver wire targets and streaming pitchers being evaluated in terms of the different scoring systems of ESPN, Yahoo!, CBS, and Fantrax. Player values can vary wildly from platform to platform,... Read More


Brayan Bello - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Two-Start Pitcher Streamers for Fantasy Baseball - Week 24

Yo, it's Jon Anderson, continuing to run the show here in terms of late-summer fantasy baseball writing. There are just two weeks left of streaming pitchers, so let's make it count! This weekly fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups column aims to identify starting pitchers expected to make two starts in the upcoming fantasy baseball week,... Read More


Fantasy Baseball Week 24 Injury News and Updates: Tyler Glasnow, Ozzie Albies, Starling Marte, Anthony Rizzo, Zack Wheeler

September is now more than half over. The baseball season is slowly coming to a close. At this point, fantasy players are pushing for their league titles or just playing for pride. Major League Baseball teams continue to do the same and injuries continue to happen, now with the dreaded term "done for the season"... Read More


Joe Musgrove - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News

Free MLB Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (9/17/22)

Happy Saturday, RotoBallers, we're back for another weekend of MLB betting picks! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been... Read More


DraftKings, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks (9/17/22): Today's Top MLB DFS Lineups

Today's MLB slates are split up as is the norm for September baseball. Half the guys I think will play will not, so you have to be as flexible as Gumby to play MLB DFS in September, but that also means that there is a lot of money out there should you dare to dive... Read More


Max Fried - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News

Free MLB Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (9/15/22)

Happy Friday, RotoBallers, we're back for another weekend of MLB betting picks! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been... Read More


Robbie Ray - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, Draft Sleepers

DraftKings, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks (9/16/22): Today's Top MLB DFS Lineups

Fridays are big MLB DFS days and offer a nice respite from the NFL, who command our attention on Thursdays, Sundays, and Mondays. This slate, like most Friday slates, is a big one as all MLB teams are in action today and 28 of those teams are on tonight's 14-game DFS slate. This was a... Read More


kyle farmer fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers MLB injury news

Top Hitter Streamers and Starts for Fantasy Baseball - Week 24

There are only two weeks left of fantasy baseball! It's going to be very sad when the season comes to an end, but the impending end of the season means that these are the most important, and therefore most fun weeks of the year – for those of you still competing, at least. I have... Read More


TODAY’S MOST VIEWED PLAYERS

rotating JS ad test

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
derrick henry fantasy football rankings news NFL DFS lineup picks

test publish 5 mins in future

Hello everybody and welcome! The 2022 NFL season is finally underway and that means our friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of. PrizePicks is a great DFS picks site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The... Read More


PrizePicks NFL DFS Picks - Monday Night Football

Hello everybody and welcome! The 2022 NFL season is finally underway and that means our friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of. PrizePicks is a great DFS picks site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The... Read More


D'Andre Swift - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL DFS Lineup Picks

Fantasy Football Injury Reports For NFL RBs: Updates for Aaron Rodgers

Warning: Undefined array key "amp_post_template_footer" in /var/www/rotoballer.com/wp-content/plugins/php-code-for-posts/Classes/Shortcode.php(91) : eval()'d code on line 6 Warning: foreach() argument must be of type array|object, null given in /var/www/rotoballer.com/wp-content/plugins/php-code-for-posts/Classes/Shortcode.php(91) : eval()'d code on line 6 Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers received five total writing awards and 13 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association, tops in the... Read More


derrick henry fantasy football rankings news NFL DFS lineup picks

PrizePicks NFL DFS Picks - Monday Night Football

Hello everybody and welcome! The 2022 NFL season is finally underway and that means our friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of. PrizePicks is a great DFS picks site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The... Read More


Justin Jefferson - Fantasy Football Rankings, DFS Lineup Picks, NFL Injury News

NFL DFS Prop Picks for Monkey Knife Fight - Monday Night Football

Welcome to NFL Monday Night Football, where we have two games scheduled between the Minnesota Vikings vs. Philadelphia Eagles and the Tennessee Titans vs. Buffalo Bills.  Monday's games mean our friends at Monkey Knife Fight are offering some fantastic props for us to play once again! The good people at Monkey Knife Fight offer some... Read More


D'Andre Swift - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL DFS Lineup Picks

Fantasy Football Injury Reports For NFL RBs: Week 2 Updates for Najee Harris, J.K. Dobbins, D'Andre Swift, Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram

Below you will find our fantasy football injuries report for running backs in Week 2, as of September 17. The injury statuses for various NFL running backs are up in the air for Week 2 including D'Andre Swift, Najee Harris, Alvin Kamara, J.K. Dobbins, and more. The fantasy football season may be just getting underway,... Read More


michael pittman jr. fantasy football rankings NFL DFS lineup picks

Fantasy Football Injury Reports For NFL WRs: Week 2 Updates for Michael Pittman Jr., Mike Evans, Tee Higgins, Allen Lazard, Julio Jones

Welcome to Week 2 of the fantasy football season and the Saturday edition of our WR injury reports! Below you will find our fantasy football injuries report for wide receivers in Week 2 as of September 16th. The injury statuses for various NFL wide receivers are up in the air for Week 2, including Michael... Read More


justin herbert fantasy football rankings NFL DFS lineup picks

Fantasy Football Injury Reports for QBs: Week 2 Updates for Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, Jameis Winston, Mac Jones

Below you will find our updated fantasy football injuries report for quarterbacks in the days before Week 2 of the 2022 NFL season as of Friday, September 16. There are a few NFL QBs dealing with injuries, including Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, Jameis Winston, and Mac Jones. Being up-to-date on NFL injury news can give... Read More


Trey Lance - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Key Starters and Tough Calls - Lineup Spotlights for Fantasy Football Week 2

Every week, I share some of my favored choices and players to go with when dealing with challenging lineup decisions. These selections are based on my Premium Weekly Lineup Rankings, available as part of the RotoBaller NFL Premium Pass. Enter promo code KING at checkout for a discount and get access to my ranks in all formats, plus... Read More


Saquon Barkley - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, Draft Sleepers

Week 2 NFL Pick Em Selections for No House Advantage

Hello everybody and welcome! The 2022 NFL season is underway and that means our friends over at No House Advantage have a TON of great DFS plays we can look to take advantage of. No House Advantage is a unique DFS prop picks site where you do not have to play against the house to... Read More


Wide Receiver Matchups to Target in Week 2: Greg Dortch, Terry McLaurin, Christian Kirk

Week 1 made some things come to light as we got some clarity on some murky situations. Unfortunately, many of our WR targets for DFS last week were victims of this. Robert Woods finished the game with one reception for 13 yards, as the Titans used the rookie receivers much more than him. Brandon Aiyuk... Read More


Carson Wentz - Fantasy Football Rankings, Waiver Wire Pickups, Draft Sleepers

Thunder Dan's NFL Betting Picks for Week 2: Top NFL Player Props Bets

Football season is back! Whether you like to bet game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you, and try to cover a little bit of everything! This year, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks... Read More


Fantasy Football IDP Injury Reports For NFL Defensive Players: Week 2 Updates for T.J. Watt, Jamal Adams, Jalen Thompson, Ed Oliver

T.J. Watt owners, you know the feeling... I had T.J. Watt in my home league last season. He was constantly checking out of games early with nagging minor injuries, but he must have led every IDP manager who started him to the playoffs. I went back to the well and drafted him early this year.... Read More