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Break The Slate: DraftKings NFL DFS Lineup Picks - Week 6

Hi there, RotoBallers, and welcome back to Break The Slate! If you read this article regularly, then you know what we're about here, but if you are a new reader, let me quickly summarize our goals with this article. We'll spend each week discussing a few plays at each position for the DraftKings main slate that can add tournament-winning upside and/or juicy value to our NFL DFS rosters. I'll highlight my favorite players and breakdown my reasoning behind them.

I try to update the article on Saturdays to reflect any significant injuries or late-breaking news, as the landscape of the slate can change quickly in the NFL, and I definitely recommend you checking those out. It was a really nice slate for us in Week 5, especially at the WR position, as our highlighted players CeeDee Lamb, Robby Anderson, and Darius Slayton all killed it for us, while our sneaky pick of Teddy Bridgewater at QB also paid dividends. Of course not everything worked out, as Dak Prescott left early with a season-ending injury and our attempt to gain some floor at TE with George Kittle failed miserably. That's how it goes in NFL DFS kids. Week 6 is shaping up to be an interesting - though perhaps frustrating - slate. As I write this, the juiciest matchup of the week - ATL vs MIN - is facing the possibility of being delayed due to COVID-19 concerns! As a result, I'll leave Falcons and Vikings players out of this week's column, but will circle back around to that matchup in the Saturday Updates section, when we'll (hopefully) know more about the status of that game. Remember, the NFL is ever-evolving from week to week, which gives us an opportunity to apply what we've learned on the next slate.

These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected ownership, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great plays available, so read on to find out which players are the best for Week 6. Be sure to also check out our weekly FanDuel DFS lineup picks and lots of other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big! Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups, let's Break The Slate together!

 

DraftKings DFS Quarterbacks - Week 6 Picks

Matthew Stafford - DET @ JAX ($6,300)

What a difference a week makes! We go from a plethora of options in Week 5, to very few legitimate ones in Week 6. There are several elite QBs available on this slate, but the problem lies in their matchups, as none of the available spots scream out as true slam-dunk situations.

One matchup that is juicy is Matt Stafford squaring off against the Jags. The Jacksonville organization is pathetic in several areas, but defending the pass has proven to be their most glaring weakness on the field this season. The Jags defense ranks dead last in the NFL in Yards Per Attempt (8.83), and stand 28th in the league in both passing yards and TDs allowed.

Stafford has yet to post a true "spike" game, but there are signs that it's coming. The Lions signal caller's Average Target Depth is 10.0 yards, which trails only Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins among QBs that have started every game for their team. He's also been boosted by the return of his top WR, Kenny Golladay, who has injected this Detroit offense with some life after missing the first two games of the season. The expected game environment is juicy, with both a tight point spread (DET -3.5) and high point total (54.0).

*SATURDAY UPDATE: A weird week at the QB position, as for the first time this season I find myself actually looking to pay down. With the ATL vs MIN game appearing set to go after some COVID concerns earlier in the week (we'll touch on several plays from this matchup), Kirk Cousins ($6.1k) immediately pops into consideration against an ATL defense that has allowed the most DK points in the NFL to the QB position. Taking Week 1 out of the equation, Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5.9k) is averaging 27.35 DK points over Miami's last four games and he squares off against a Jets secondary that is allowing 8.25 yards per attempt. Tennessee's Ryan Tannehill ($5.9k) continues to be relentlessly efficient and posted 30 DK points on just 28 attempts Tuesday night against Buffalo. The price is right...with volume being the only concern in a matchup against the Texans that figures to be a "ride Derrick Henry" game for Tennessee.

 

DraftKings DFS Running Backs - Week 6 Picks

Derrick Henry - HOU @ TEN ($7,300)

While there are very few slam-dunk spots at the QB position, there are some juicy matchups available for RBs this week. Tennessee's Derrick Henry has a dream "usage + matchup" situation against the Houston Texans. Henry has received a massive 101 carries this season, which ranks second in the NFL behind Josh Jacobs' 105 in total carries, despite the Titans only playing four games. His eye-popping carry per game average of 25.25 leads the league, while his 28 Red Zone rushing attempts is also atop the NFL.

Henry hasn't exactly been ultra-efficient - his average of 3.7 yards per carry is pretty pedestrian - but he should find some easy sledding this week against a Texans Defense that has allowed the most rushing yards in the NFL (706) and is relinquishing a massive 5.19 yards per carry to the RB position - the fourth-highest average in the league.

James Robinson - DET @ JAX ($6,800)

We touched on this DET vs JAX matchup at the QB position with Matthew Stafford and James Robinson presents us with an opportunity to grab another piece of exposure in this game. The Lions have been brutally-bad against the run. Detroit has allowed an average of 32.8 DK points per game to opposing runners and is relinquishing a staggering 5.57 yards per carry on the ground, a mark that tied for worst in the league.

Robinson underwhelmed last week, posting just 11.0 DK points against Houston. However, his usage remained encouraging, as he toted the rock 13 times and was targeted seven times in the pass game. Volume is king in DFS and Robinson has now touched the ball 17 or more times in all five of Jacksonville's game this season. This matchup against Detroit is a juicy rebound spot.

Ronald Jones II - GB @ TB ($6,000)

Do any of you guys wanna join the #FreeRonaldJones campaign with me? Jones II is a talented back that has finally been given a chance to shine thanks to Leonard Fournette's absence and Tampa's banged-up receiving corps. He's made the most of the opportunity, rushing for over 100 yards in each of the Bucs' last two games, while also corralling nine of 14 targets. We're hoping that Jones II has worked his way into Bruce Arians' good graces with his performances over the last couple of weeks and that an expected-to-return Fournette will just be a footnote in this offense, as Green Bay offers a surprisingly good matchup. The Packers are allowing a very chunky 4.76 yards per carry to the RB position, and rank 31st in the NFL in both catch % and yards per target allowed to RBs.

*SATURDAY UPDATE: Lots to unpack here at RB...we love Aaron Jones' ($7.6k) talent, but the matchup against Tampa Bay presents his biggest challenge to date. Alexander Mattison ($7.2k) feels like one of the larger decisions on this slate. With pricing delayed due to the Tuesday night game, DKings was able to adjust his price, which means we (thankfully) won't see a 70%-owned-$5k Mattison. He'll step right in to Dalvin's Cook role in a dreamy matchup against an ATL defense that's relinquishing nearly 140 total yards per game to the RB position. With some very good options available at RB this week, I'll neither be "all in" or "all out" on Mattison, but will definitely grab some exposure in this smash spot, while the RB on the other side of this matchup, Todd Gurley II ($6.3K), presents a unique pivot opportunity against a Vikes defense that allowed 561 yards on the ground this season. Carolina's Mike Davis ($7.0k) continues to produce "CMC Lite" numbers thanks to his huge role in this Panthers offense. The matchup against Chicago isn't great this week, but the volume/production is hard to ignore. On the other side of CHI vs CAR, David Montgomery ($5.8k) might not actually be good at football, but he's getting all the work he can handle out of the Bears backfield in the absence of Tarik Cohen and will square off against a Panthers Defense that is dead last in the NFL in DK points allowed the the RB position. Two strong standouts in the mid-$5k range are Antonio Gibson ($5.5k) and Myles Gaskin ($5.4k), players whose price tags don't really reflect the amount of volume they are consistently receiving in their respective offenses. With Denver's Melvin Gordon ($6.0k) now officially ruled "Out", Phillip Lindsay ($4.3k) becomes the most intriguing salary saver at the position.

DraftKings DFS Wide Receivers - Week 6 Picks

DeVante Parker - NYJ @ MIA ($6,300)

The ATL vs MIN is a treasure trove at the WR position, but since we're in wait-and-see mode on that game, we'll slide down the salary scale to Miami's DeVante Parker at $6.3k. Parker hasn't been the target monster that he was last season, but he's proven himself to be extremely efficient this year by posting double-digit DK output in each of Miami's last four games. He turned three targets into 50 yards and a TD last week against the Niners and recorded 10 catches for 110 yards on 12 targets in Week 4 against Seattle. We can consider Parker's target counts of the last two weeks outliers and I expect him to fall somewhere in the middle against the Jets. New York's Pierre Desir has little chance of slowing down Parker and this surprisingly-good Dolphins air attack. The Jets Defense ranks last in the league in allowed catch % to the WR position (71.9%) and stands 30th in the NFL in yards per target (9.88).

Kenny Golladay - DET @ JAX ($6,200)

We've already touched on Matt Stafford and James Robinson in this matchup. You can toss Kenny Golladay in the mix to complete a nice little game stack. Golladay missed the first two games of the year with a hamstring injury, but he's been productive since returning in Week 3, snagging 10 of 15 targets for 109 yards and 2 TDs in over two games. He'll square off against a Jags secondary that's been routinely gashed this season and is coming off allowing an 8/161/1 torch job to Brandin Cooks last week. Jacksonville is relinquishing nearly nine yards per target to opposing wideouts and will throw barely-drafted rookie Chris Claybrooks at Golladay in this game.

Tee Higgins - CIN @ IND ($4,700)

Obviously, we want to look for terrific matchups when constructing DFS rosters, but sometimes - especially when trying to take down a GPP - we must be willing to consider a player that's in perhaps a less-than-plus matchup due to talent, price, or usage. In Bengals rookie WR Tee Higgins, we find all three of those. Higgins has developed rapidly at the pro level and despite being targeted 30 (!) times over Cincy's last four games, his DK salary has remained frozen in this $4.5-5k price range (his price has actually decreased $200 from last week!). The volume is hard to ignore, but more importantly, Higgins is receiving quality targets. He has a healthy aDOT of 14.0 and has accounted for 25.2% of the Bengals' Air Yards this season. This Colts Defense isn't one we want to go out of our way to target, but second-year CB Rock Ya-Sin's 57.7 PFF Grade isn't enough to scare me off the cheap upside that Higgins brings to the table.

*SATURDAY UPDATE: With ATL vs MIN set to go, receivers in this matchup jump to the top of our Week 6 target list...Calvin Ridley ($7.8k) is perhaps better with Julio Jones ($6.7k) in the lineup, while both Adam Thielen ($7.3k) and Justin Jefferson ($6.0k) draw a dream matchup against a Falcons secondary that has succeeded in stopping NO ONE this season and is 31st in the NFL in yards per target allowed to the WR position. Philly funnels offenses to the air, which should put the explosive, yet inconsistent, Marquise Brown ($6.5k) on our GPP radars. The Jets offense is gross, but Jamison Crowder ($6.1k) has been a true standout, breaking the 20-DK point mark every time he's suited up this season. Both Terry McLaurin ($5.7k) and A.J. Brown ($5.6k) are high-upside options, especially at this price point. D.J. Chark's availability might not be known until Sunday morning, but if he can't go, Laviska Shenault ($5.2k) would immediately jump into my player pool. Chase Claypool ($5.2k) broke the slate last week, but I'm not scared to go right back to the well with Diontae Johnson now ruled out for Week 6. The same can be said for Houston's Brandin Cooks ($5.0k), who gets another winnable matchup against the Titans on the heels of a monster performance in Week 5.

 

DraftKings DFS Tight Ends - Week 6 Picks

Mark Andrews - BAL @ PHI ($6,500)

Mark Andrews' fantasy production has generally depended on his unbelievable efficiency. However, Andrews heads into Week 6 on the heels of his highest-volume game of the season last week against the Bengals. The Ravens stud TE was targeted nine times against Cincy, posting a rock-solid 6/56/1 stat line. Volume is the largest concern with the talented Andrews (he was only targeted three times in Week 4), but we have to feel confident that the opportunities will be there this week against Philly's true funnel defense. The Eagles are allowing just 3.35 yards per carry on the ground, which routinely forces opponents to the air. Opposing pass attacks have found success with TEs against Philly, as the Eagles have allowed the highest completion rate (86.5%) in the NFL to the position.

Jonnu Smith - HOU @ TEN ($5,200)

It seems like forever since we had a chance to roster Jonnu Smith on the Main Slate. I'm jumping at the opportunity to get the Titans TE back in my lineups this week. The matchup is neutral-at- best, with Houston ranking middle of the pack statistically against the TE position, but I'm willing to bet on Smith's elite volume (6.75 targets per game) and eye-opening athletic ability (12.3 yards per catch) at this palatable price tag.

*SATURDAY UPDATE: The TE position is a wasteland this week from my perspective and I will be leaning heavily on the two players highlighted in this week's original writeup.



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