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The majority of the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series season has belonged to Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick. Don't expect anything different this weekend at Kansas Speedway, the first race in the Round of 8.
Of course, having both Hamlin and Harvick on your DraftKings team is going to pay a hefty price, but in the long run, it should be worth it. After all, both of these drivers have won three races at Kansas, including the past two.
With this lineup being centered around those two, it means you'll need to find key drivers to round out the lineup, so I think I've got that lineup for you!
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My DFS Lineup - Hollywood Casino 400
Denny Hamlin ($10,600)
Career at Kansas: 24 starts, 3 wins, 284 laps led
Average finish at Kansas: 14.5
In 24 career starts at Kansas, Hamlin has been hit or miss with the No. 11 team. But over the past two races, he's been lights out.
Last fall, Hamlin led 153 of 277 laps, holding off the field on a pile of late-race restarts to score the victory. In July, the No. 11 car led on four occasions for 57 laps en route to another victory, passing Harvick with 13 laps to go. If we're basing this lineup off recency bias, Hamlin's a sure bet.
With seven victories, 17 top-five, 19 top-10 finishes and 983 laps led, Hamlin is in the midst of one of his best seasons in Cup (2010, 2019 are comparable). He starts seventh after a disappointing run last weekend at the Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL, but expect him to be in position to lock himself into the championship race with a win this weekend.
Kevin Harvick ($10,400)
Career at Kansas: 29 starts, 3 wins, 864 laps led
Average finish at Kansas: 9.6
Since NASCAR first visited Kansas in 2001, Harvick has been the most impressive driver in track history; three victories, 16 top 10s and a track record 864 laps led. Since joining Stewart-Haas Racing in 2014, 643 of those laps led have come in the last 13 races at the track.
Like Hamlin, Harvick is arguably having his best season to date (though he's been real consistent since 2014); nine victories, 19 top fives and 25 top-10 finishes. He's led a series-high 1,418 laps through the opening 32 events.
The No. 4 car will lineup fourth on Sunday, but don't expect it to be long before Harvick reaches the front. He's led laps in 12 of the past 14 races at Kansas, with the least amount of those coming in July with nine.
Erik Jones ($8,400)
Career at Kansas: 8 starts, 0 wins, 3 laps led
Average finish at Kansas: 15.4
Flashback to 2015, Jones made a one-off Cup start, replacing an injured Kyle Busch. On that May evening, he led one lap in his debut. In his second start at the track in 2017 with Furniture Row Racing, the Michigan native led two circuits. That's all in eight starts.
While having not spent much time out front might be a turn off to your fantasy team, Jones has been ultra consistent over the past five races at the track, recording a worst finish of seventh. Three of those results have been inside the top five, including the July event.
No, Jones isn't in the playoffs and is indeed racing for his life with no job lined up for 2021, but he's been solid since the postseason began: five top 10s in six races. The No. 20 Toyota will start 11th, but he's well worth the price.
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Aric Almirola ($8,000)
Career at Kansas: 17 starts, 0 wins, 69 laps led
Average finish at Kansas: 18.2
Speaking of career seasons, Almirola is most definitely having his, though he hasn't reached victory lane. With a summer stretch of five consecutive top-five finishes over, it seems like the No. 10 team needed to capitalize on that in order to win this season.
But then there's Kansas, where Almirola has shown flashes of real speed over the years, including a race with 69 laps led (yes, those are the only laps he's ever led at the track) with Richard Petty Motorsports back in 2012. Earlier this season, he finished sixth after running near the front for the majority of the race.
Almirola will lineup 16th on Sunday, and odds are he'll finish better than that. The No. 10 car brings value to your team, whether he leads or not.
Matt Kenseth ($6,600)
Career at Kansas: 26 starts, 2 wins, 774 laps led
Average finish at Kansas: 15.0
Over the years, Kenseth has been really good at Kansas -- one of the best in track history -- leading the third-most laps. His recent results, though, not ideal.
In Kenseth's last three starts at the intermediate track, he's earned a best finish of 17th (earlier this season), with two DNF's. Combine that with his abysmal 2020 season with Chip Ganassi Racing -- average finish of 20.2 with two top-10 results -- and you're probably wondering why have him on your team?
Well, I don't think you can ever count, arguably, out one of the top 25 talents in NASCAR history. Sure, he's only got one top-five finish this season, but the No. 42 team has seemingly been more competitive of late, even if the statistics aren't there to prove it. Plus, Kenseth starts 30th, meaning he's got a lot of room to work with.
Michael McDowell ($5,700)
Career at Kansas: 18 starts, 0 wins, 1 lap led
Average finish at Kansas: 30.4
Clearly, McDowell doesn't have a great average finish at the racetrack, but that's skewed due to his first seven races were all start and park. Since running competitively, he's scored a quartet of top-20 finishes, including a 16th-place effort in July.
As you've seen with many of these articles, I've been high on McDowell's capability this season. Why, you ask? He's also having the best season of his Cup career, scoring four top 10s, the same amount he had in the previous three years combined. His average finishing position is also nearly two positions better than his previous best.
Due to a few spins late in the race last week and where he sits in points, McDowell will begin the 400-mile race from 26th. Surely, I'd think he finishes better than that.
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