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We've made it.
After a 10-week hiatus just one month into the NASCAR season, the Cup Series playoffs is set to begin this weekend at Darlington Raceway, the same track that the sport resumed its schedule post-shutdown. With the Southern 500 slated to start in dusk and end at night, there's no reason to expect a much different result from the last time the sport visited South Carolina.
Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick dominated the regular season, winning exactly half the races (13 of 26), sweeping the two races at Darlington in March. Surely you should start one, if not both of those drivers on Sunday, right?
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My DFS Lineup - Cook Out Southern 500
Denny Hamlin ($11,400)
Career at Darlington: 16 starts, 3 wins, 574 laps led
Average finish at Darlington: 7.2
To answer the question above, yes, yes you should have at least one of the two dominating drivers on your lineup for Darlington. This weekend, I give the slight edge to Hamlin.
By scoring a top-five finish last weekend at Daytona International Speedway and sitting second in points, Hamlin will begin the 500-mile event from the front row in second. Surely, the No. 11 Toyota could lose you points should he drop back at the end of the race, but it's Hamlin... and Darlington, which is a perfect match.
On paper, Darlington is one of Hamlin's best racetracks on the circuit. And should he even breathe clean air at the start, there's a good chance the No. 11 runs away with the playoff opener, leads a multitude of laps and sweep all three stages. If so, I called it.
Joey Logano ($9,800)
Career at Darlington: 13 starts, 0 wins, 122 laps led
Average finish at Darlington: 15.8
Over the course of his 12-year Cup career, Logano has been hit or miss at Darlington; such was the case in May, with finishes of sixth and 18th, respectively.
After leading the most laps last weekend in Daytona, Logano was caught in a late accident, finishing 27th. Because of that, the No. 22 car will roll off from 13th position, fourth worst of the 16 playoff drivers (all playoff drivers start in the top 16). Because Logano starts relatively mid-pack, there's room for him to move up the leaderboard, especially since he has four top-six finishes in the past seven races at The Track Too Tough to Tame.
After a mid-summer slump, Logano has picked up the pace since the beginning of August. Prior to wrecking out at Daytona, the Connecticut native had a streak of six consecutive top-10 finishes. Expect him to add another on Sunday.
Erik Jones ($9,600)
Career at Darlington: 5 starts, 1 win, 106 laps led
Average finish at Darlington: 5.4
There's no way around it, Jones' 2020 season has been a big disappointment. But Jones and Darlington are like peanut butter and jelly: yet to have a finish outside the top eight.
In the two Spring races, Jones had finishes of fifth and eighth, leading 27 laps in the second race, the most laps the No. 20 car has paced the field this season. And if you forgot what happened in last year's Southern 500, Jones beat Kyle Busch and Kyle Larson heads up for his second career victory.
Of all active drivers, Jones has the best average finish at The Lady in Black. Though the No. 20 Toyota will lineup 30th, expect the driver to methodically work his way through the field, earning you points!
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Tyler Reddick ($7,000)
Career at Darlington: 2 starts, 0 wins, 0 laps led
Average finish at Darlington: 10.0
Darlington is tough on any racecar driver, let alone a rookie. That's what made Reddick's two runs in May so impressive; finishing seventh and 13th, respectively.
When you think of running the boards, Reddick is the first current cup driver that comes to mind. The quickest lane at Darlington is right against the wall, giving the No. 8 car an advantage. However, unlike the NASCAR Xfinity Series, if a driver even scrapes the fence, there's a high percentage chance they'll have to pit to repair the fenders.
Reddick starts deep in the field -- 24th -- on Sunday, meaning if he can duplicate his first two races at the track, he's a solid choice. But let's think back to Daytona: Reddick upset a lot of drivers by making a huge block on Busch, causing the first "Big One."
Matt Kenseth ($6,500)
Career at Darlington: 27 starts, 1 win, 193 laps led
Average finish at Darlington: 16.1
Flashback 22 races ago: there was a lot of excitement around Kenseth returning to the Cup Series, driving the No. 42 Chevrolet for Chip Ganassi Racing. His first start with the team came at Darlington, showing out with a 10th-place finish. Pretty impressive for a driver that had never raced the current aerodynamic package.
But then Kenseth was involved in two incidents in the second race at Darlington, finishing 30th. That high the No. 42 team was on was crushed pretty quickly, much like the remainder of the season has gone.
However, I'd never count out Kenseth, especially at Darlington. Sure, the 48-year-old only has one victory at the track (2013), but it's a track that suits veteran drivers, and this veteran driver is looking for anything to turn his season around. This could be a risky pick, but given he starts 26th, Kenseth is worth the price.
Chris Buescher ($5,700)
Career at Darlington: 6 starts, 0 wins, 0 laps led
Average finish at Darlington: 19.0
An average finish of 19th in six races at Darlington isn't too shabby for a driver that's competed for Front Row Motorsports and JTG Daugherty Racing prior to the 2020 season. In fact, Buescher's two worst runs at the 1.33-mile track came earlier this season, with finishes of 23rd and 32nd.
For the price, though, Buescher is the highest value of anyone this cheap. The No. 17 Ford begins the race from 20th, fourth best of drivers outside the playoffs. The 2020 season has been a tad disappointing, as expectations were high returning to Roush Fenway Racing.
Regardless, Buescher is known for having breakout runs. And if the Texan can get four top-17 finishes in his first four starts at the track, I expect his trend to turn from the two events in May.
More NASCAR DFS
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