RADIO
Adam Frazier to the Padres - Fantasy Impact
Is the Home Run Derby a Power Killer?
I don't know about you all, but for as far back as I can remember, I know I've heard fans and media talk about how after a player competes in the Home Run Derby they almost always seem to "lose their swing" and have a power drop-off in the second half. I've heard that repeated... Read More
Pitcher Risers and Fallers Since Sticky Substance Enforcement
On June 21st, MLB decided to really crack down on foreign substances used by pitchers. "Random" inspections of pitcher gloves and clothing were instituted to make sure pitchers were not using an illegal sticky substance to get a better grip on the ball. This created quite the buzz in the fantasy baseball community. We've had more... Read More
Second-Half Breakouts: Examining June's K-BB% Leaders
In my last article, I mentioned that K-BB% is one of my favorite stats for looking at a pitcher's in-season performance. There are two main reasons for that. First, it stabilizes quickly and has a proven correlation to a pitcher's overall success. Second, it's impossibly simple. If a pitcher has a high strikeout rate (K%),... Read More
Statcast Hitter Studs and Duds - xBA Analysis for Week 14
It's been a while since we delved into xBA. We're now halfway through the season so it's a good time to see whose batting average is due for course correction, whether it be positive or negative. Often, although not always, players with sizeable discrepancies in BA-xBA are due for regression. Identifying these outliers can be... Read More
Making Sense of Tampa Bay's Pitching Staff
OK, seriously — is there any tougher pitching staff to decipher in fantasy than Tampa Bay's? Between the never-ending merry-go-round that is their closer committee, their frequent use of openers and then the normal issue of back-end rotation guys not being fantasy assets, it can be difficult to stay on top of which pitchers you... Read More
Three Up, Three Down: Pitchers to Buy & Sell
The pitching league leaders are about to cross the 100-inning mark of the year, which means we have accrued quite a bit of data to analyze. We can now have a significant amount of confidence in our data analysis given that we've seen guys on the mound for nearly three full months. A huge key... Read More
Statcast Hitter Studs and Duds - Fastball Run Values (Week 13)
The news regarding MLB's unexpected crackdown on foreign substances has been well-documented by now. It will surely have a negative impact on pitchers, but the effect on hitters may largely depend on their batted-ball profile. The pitch that has seen the biggest discrepancy for the top aces due to increased spin rates is the good... Read More
Cedric Mullins - Budding Star or Flash in the Pan?
Welcome to my first article at RotoBaller. I am humbled to be allowed to write with this incredible team of writers and editors. Please enjoy, and I hope this helps you win with your fantasy teams. One of the fantasy breakout players and MVP candidates this season is Baltimore Orioles center fielder Cedric Mullins. He... Read More
Statcast Hitter Studs and Duds - xSLG Analysis for Week 12
Slugging is a fairly simple metric by baseball standards but once Statcast gets into the mix, it's a bit more complicated. According to MLB.com, "Expected Slugging Percentage (xSLG) is formulated using exit velocity, launch angle and, on certain types of batted balls, Sprint Speed." Base hits are still weighted with home runs being four times... Read More
Tyler O'Neill is the Cardinals Outfielder You're Looking For
Don't look now, but Tyler O'Neill is taking the league by storm! Through two months, the fourth-year Cardinals outfielder has posted some impressive numbers across the board and is getting the attention of many folks around the league. He's not only seized a spot in the lineup every day, but he's also working his way... Read More
The Bigger Picture - Sizing Up 60 Games
We did it. We got through 60 games of the Major League season and yet, it isn't nearly over. Of all the trials and tribulations the abbreviated 2020 season brought, one of the greatest difficulties is having to invoke the caveat of the shortened season when conducting statistical analysis. Although we could take the current... Read More
Is Streaming Catchers a Smart Strategy?
The common adage is that you should be streaming at catcher, but sometimes I think we cling to that a little too tightly. We buy into the easy narratives of "Catchers can't hit" and "Don't waste high picks or FAAB on catchers" but I've always believed it was an oversimplification. Yes, the deeper your league... Read More
Statcast Hitter Studs and Duds - Barrel Rate Analysis for Week 11
Believe it or not, this will be our first foray into barrels this season. Certain statistics take longer to become significant, so it made sense to accumulate more data before digging into barrels. Those familiar with this series already know that the obvious names like Aaron Judge, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Nelson Cruz won't be... Read More
The Bigger Picture - Glittery Prospects Aren't Always Fantasy Gold
Jarred Kelenic, welcome to The Show. The next über-prospect that had fantasy managers chomping at the bit for a call-up got his first taste of the majors at age 21. It was fantastic... for about two days. Now, he is on the bench and/or chopping block in redraft leagues while many GMs wish they would... Read More
Statcast Hitter Studs and Duds - xBA Analysis for Week 10
Death, taxes, regression. These are inevitable. Eschewing the first two topics, fantasy baseball managers may be interested in identifying batters who are experiencing regerssion, both positive and negative. Once summer hits, we have enough data that season-long stats can be deceptive on the surface. That said, let's dive back into expected statistics with a look... Read More
The Bigger Picture - Late-Age Breakouts Taking Center Stage
As astute fantasy managers, we are always scouting the next player ready to break out as he approaches his prime. Some phenoms like Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Rafael Devers don't bother waiting until they are of legal drinking age before they announce their arrival as a Major League star but they are clearly... Read More
Statcast Hitter Studs and Duds - Sweet Spot Analysis for Week 9
Barrel rate is one of the best measures of a hitter's power. In order to earn a barrel, a player needs to have enough exit velocity, which we measured last week, and the proper launch angle. Specifically, a ball can travel anywhere between 8-50 degrees depending on how high an exit velocity was produced. Although... Read More
The Best Pitches of 2021 By The Numbers
There is so much to look at when evaluating pitchers in 2021. The amount of data we have is incredible. At the time of this writing, there had been 186,220 pitches thrown this season. I wanted to examine the individual pitch types and see which pitchers have been most effective with each. I am mostly focusing... Read More
The Bigger Picture - The Miseducation of Park Factors
Another no-hitter in the books. Something's in the water or, more accurately, in the baseballs. We already covered that topic last time so let's figure out how to extract more offense from our daily or weekly lineups. Home/road splits seem like a good place to start and we know certain stadiums play friendlier to offense... Read More
Statcast Hitter Studs and Duds - Exit Velocity Analysis for Week 8
Exit velocity is all the rage these days, but how meaningful is it really? It depends. A high exit velocity is worthless if it's smashed into the ground right at a defender. Increasing the miles per hour rate on line drives and fly balls typically result in better outcomes and are more predictive of power.... Read More
The Bigger Picture - Complete Games Are En Vogue Again
Headlines in the baseball world recently have by and large pertained to the multiple instances of no-hitters early in the 2021 season. This is usually accompanied by a lamentation of how offense is down and batters are struggling to generate excitement in this new live-ball era. But what's the fantasy spin? Face it, no-hitters are... Read More
Suddenly-Hot Starting Pitchers - Trust or Bust?
A lot of the time when you look at a pitcher's full season, you'll notice that the first few starts of the year don't really seem to fit the rest of the season. Pitching is a really tough thing to do and it can often take pitchers a few weeks into the regular season to... Read More
Statcast Hitter Studs and Duds - xwOBA Analysis for Week 7
With many hitters finally passing the 100-plate appearance threshold for 2021, we can begin to dig into expected statistics to see who is underperforming or overachieving. A good place to start is xwOBA, or expected weighted on-base average. For those unfamiliar with the term, BaseballSavant describes it thusly: "xwOBA is formulated using exit velocity, launch... Read More
The Big Picture - Injuries Aren't Just Increasing, They're Hitting Harder
Coming off the heels of Injurypocalypse™ weekend, baseball fans and fantasy managers are commiserating about the proliferation of injuries in Major League Baseball. Reactions run the gamut from "What did we do to deserve this?" to "It's just part of the game" to "Fire the whole training staff!" It's not just the sheer number of... Read More
Veteran Bounce Backs In Effect for Fantasy Baseball
The old, boring vets are often the most painful to draft. We've likely seen their ceiling or are so far past it that their current level of production is meager in comparison. This relative way of thinking typically leaves a poorly framed assessment on that subset of players, leaving value to be harvested among the... Read More
Statcast Hitter Studs and Duds - Hard-Hit Rate Analysis for Week 6
We're officially one month into the season so more statistics will begin to become "sticky." One of the chief contact quality metrics that can be predictive of power is hard-hit rate. As always, we'll skip the obvious names like Mike Trout and Aaron Judge in order to look at unexpected leaders, as well as players... Read More
The Big Picture - Fantasy > Reality
Reality doesn't always meet our expectations (not just talking baseball here). But in the fantasy world, we can make things play out however we want. A player is slumping? Cut or trade him and he's gone forever. Your favorite baseball team can't realistically pull that off midseason no matter how much you want Matt Carpenter... Read More
Statcast Hitter Studs and Duds - Contact Rate Analysis for Week 5
Last week, we examined whiff rate risers and fallers so it's time to investigate the opposite side of the coin with contact rate. Many metrics are yet to warrant deep examination for 2021 since teams are approximately 20 games into the season. Contact rate takes about 100 plate appearances to begin stabilizing. While it is... Read More
Statcast Hitter Studs and Duds - Whiff Rate for Week 4
We're back in the swing of things, literally, with a closer look at hitters who are making quality contact and those who aren't. This week, our Statcast focus is Whiff Rate entering Week 4 of the 2021 fantasy baseball season. Whiffs are simply calculated as the number of swings and misses divided by the total... Read More
