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Are You For Real? Surprising MLB Pitcher Starts from Week 23
Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 13: Barrels For Pitchers
Last time, we looked at Barrels, a stat combining exit velocity and launch angle to measure how often a batter makes quality hard contact. As much as batters want to hit a Barrel every time, pitchers want to avoid them at all costs. Yet there is some evidence that pitchers do not have the same... Read More
Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball Part 12 - Barrels for Batters
If you've watched a baseball broadcast in the so-called Statcast Era, you have undoubtedly noticed the broadcasters commenting on a batted ball's exit velocity, or EV. Many have taken to using stats like Hard% and Soft% to forecast how a player should be performing, expecting larger Hard% rates to produce larger BABIP figures. There is... Read More
Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 11 - Minor League Stats
Once you've grown accustomed to having advanced tools to help make fantasy decisions, it can feel disorientating to be without them. Prospects are increasingly becoming a focal point in both real and fantasy baseball, but the minors simply do not have all of the data available for MLB players. For example, advanced plate discipline stats,... Read More
Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 10: PITCHf/x
One of the most fundamental questions in fantasy sports is if a player's current performance is sustainable. More than any other sport, baseball has a slew of statistical measures that can be dissected numerous ways to analyze player performance. PITCHf/x is a publicly available pitch tracking system that provides a lot of different data to... Read More
Maximizing Yahoo DL and NA Slots In Your Draft
Most fantasy baseball leagues have at least one DL spot. Many have two, three or even more. While certainly useful during the season when players inevitably get hurt, they can also be part of your draft strategy. Not as widely used and relatively new to Yahoo leagues, NA slots allow you to stockpile difference-makers for the... Read More
Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 9: Pitcher Batted Ball Distribution
The league average batted ball distribution in 2016 was 20.7% liners, 44.7% grounders and 34.6% flies. Last time, we took a brief look at how pitchers may specialize in either grounders or fly balls. Fly ball pitchers have a BABIP advantage over their ground ball-inducing counterparts, since fly balls (.127 BABIP in 2016) consistently have... Read More
Last Minute Draft Prep and Strategy: Sweat the Small Stuff
The deeper your league, the more important it is to gain a slight edge over your opponents whenever possible. Nobody “dominates” a competitive draft. Presumably you have compiled a list. Most RotoBaller readers know who’s injured. Everyone has sleepers, some of us a hunch or two. Yet even with dedicated preparation, a successful live draft... Read More
![By SD Dirk on Flickr [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons](https://cdn.rotoballer.com/2015/04/madison-bumgarner-fantasy-baseball-advice-analysis-e1462508179448.jpg)
Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 8: BABIP For Pitchers
While FIP is a useful tool to predict a pitcher's future ERA performance, fantasy owners should remember that ERA, not FIP, is what really matters in most formats. This means that we are interested in the "luck" that separates the two statistics. While some of this luck is unpredictable, we can and should predict some... Read More
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Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 7: FIP & xFIP
The first advanced pitching stat most fantasy owners encounter is FIP. FIP stands for Fielding Independent Pitching, and attempts to measure a pitcher's actual skill instead of the effects of luck or his supporting cast. According to the DIPS theory that the metric is based upon, pitchers control only Ks, BBs (and HBP) and home... Read More
Industry Experts - March Mock Draft: The Overview
With your fantasy drafts rapidly approaching, we organized an expert mock draft last week. The 12-team "league" was selected on RTSports.com featuring writers from five different sites along with a few twitter fans. Among the RotoBallers represented were Kyle Bishop, Pierre Camus, Andrew Sullivan, JB Branson, and me. Also in the room were Nick Doran of... Read More
Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 6: Lineup Slot & Counting Stats
To this point, this series has focused exclusively on trying to predict and validate HRs and batting average. There is a reason for this--modern sabermetrics tend to reject the idea of a "clutch RBI guy" and therefore do not bother inventing predictive metrics for it. Runs and RBI are team dependent stats, and are unhelpful... Read More
Standard League Draft Strategy: Part Two (Pitchers)
For many, a draft is all about finding sleepers, predicting who the busts and breakouts are, and deciding who to pick with the first pick or who to allocate the most money to in an auction draft. While finding the right players is certainly a necessary element of a successful fantasy draft, it is not... Read More
Standard League Draft Strategy: Part One (Hitters)
For many, a draft is all about finding sleepers, predicting who the busts and breakouts are, and deciding who to pick with the first pick or who to allocate the most money to in an auction draft. While finding the right players is certainly a necessary element of a successful fantasy draft, it is not... Read More
Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 5: Pull%
Earlier in my series on using sabermetrics for fantasy baseball, we saw that fantasy owners generally prefer batters to hit the ball into the air in order to have a chance at a home run. Yet all fly balls are not equal for this purpose. A player can maximize his power production by pulling the... Read More
Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 4: Plate Discipline
No matter how high a particular player's BABIP may be, his average will be mediocre at best if he strikes out too much. This is why fantasy owners have known for years that players like Adam Dunn, Chris Carter, and Chris Davis are potential drains on a fantasy team's batting average. Furthermore, players that whiff... Read More
Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 3: Batted Ball Distribution
Fly balls can turn into home runs. Ground balls never do. It would seem as though fantasy owners want their batters to hit nothing but flies, yet I closed the last piece by stating that this is not the case. Why would this be? Let's take a look, as my series on using sabermetrics for... Read More
Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball Part 2: HR/FB%
Using BABIP to predict a player's batting average is great. Average is a category in many league formats, and every hit is an opportunity to steal a base or score a run. But most owners find the long ball sexier. Every HR comes with a guaranteed run scored and at least one RBI. Many owners... Read More
Fantasy Baseball Points League Primer: Five Rules to Remember
The majority of fantasy baseball advice and analysis is tailored to standard head-to-head and rotisserie leagues. The rationale for this is twofold. First, those scoring formats are significantly more popular than points leagues, and writers naturally want to capture the broadest possible audience. To wit: I make a point of familiarizing myself with ADP data... Read More
Expert Mock Draft: Mariano in the Middle
I was fortunate enough to be invited to mock with some of the industry’s brightest on Thursday night, where I was able to test out how picking No. 6 in a 12-team roto league would go. Organized by fightingchancefantasy.com, I locked horns with folks such as Steve Gardner, Tim Heaney, John Halpin and Joel Henard... Read More
Are Basestealers Undervalued in Fantasy Baseball?
Last year we heard rumblings of players and fans alike thinking the ball was juiced, as homers skyrocketed. We have also begun to hear teams mention over the years that outs on the basepaths might not be worth the risk of a stolen base. Then again, maybe it’s just my bias as an Orioles’ fan... Read More
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Using SIERA to Win Your Fantasy Baseball League
Welcome back to the fantasy baseball classroom where we’re learning about winning strategies and advanced statistics that help us dominate. Previous lessons have been focused on hitters, as we’ve explored BABIP as well as hard-hit rates. Now we turn our attention to pitchers and their SIERA.Featured Promo: Want a free RotoBaller Premium Pass? Check out these sports betting... Read More
Auction Draft Strategy: The Value of Using Tiers
Estimating value and worth can be a pain. You know what’s worse than just figuring it out for yourself? Doing that for your whole league, on the fly, as the draft is happening. You’ll kill yourself if you’re actively trying to figure out everyone’s valuations moving forward, so don’t sweat that. What you can do... Read More
Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball Part 1: BABIP for Hitters
Hello fellow RotoBallers! Sabermetrics have become an integral tool for fantasy baseball draft prep, but a concise resource for understanding the basics can be difficult to find. This series attempts to define and explain all of the metrics fantasy owners may find useful, citing examples of how to use them in the process. Twenty advanced... Read More
How Your Brain Messes With Your Fantasy Baseball Draft
The human brain is one of the most powerful and fascinating things, and one of the greatest things it has given us is fantasy baseball. Utilized properly, it is your greatest weapon on draft day and beyond. Blindly followed, it can stab you in the back. Our brains did not evolve for the sake of... Read More
Fantasy Baseball Strategy: Don't Pay (Too Much) For Saves
This isn’t the hottest of takes here, as the SAGNOF (Saves Ain’t Got NO Face) school of thought has had a steady stream of followers for quite a few years now. It’s a little more complicated than that of course, as this isn’t simply about the straight up value of taking a closer early on.... Read More
Industry Mock Draft Results: Picks the Experts Love And Hate
Late January means we’re treading ever closer to pitchers and catchers reporting, but more importantly, it means we’re wading ever deeper into the mock-draft waters for the fantasy baseball season. RotoBaller recently held its first mock draft of the season, and now we’ll give all participants a chance to share their notable picks. If you... Read More
Thinking Out Loud: Early Industry Mock Draft Results
Due to being professional fiends, we here at RotoBaller held our first mock draft of the 2017 fantasy baseball season this week. Mocks are great but constantly ruined by trolling fools who can't commit past two rounds. Luckily, my job grants me access to folks who want to be there. We still troll each other, but the... Read More
Using Pitch Velocity and Usage Patterns to Win Your Fantasy Baseball League
Pitching is a beautiful monster. It's such an elegant art that presents us with a nearly endless stream of data points to pick apart. On the one hand, this gives us a lot to explore and discuss, on the other hand it means there’s plenty of digging to do. We’re here today to talk about... Read More
Fantasy Baseball Strategy: How to Close the Standings Gap
This article first appeared in the Metro news publication. With Memorial Day in the rearview mirror, many fantasy owners are staring up at their rivals in the standings and feeling the pressure of falling behind. If you’re among them, here are some tips to help you close the gap. Review the Numbers When looking at... Read More
Using Plate Discipline Metrics to Win Your Fantasy Baseball League
Welcome back to the fantasy baseball classroom where we’re learning about advanced statistics that give us a leg up on the competition, and help us win our fantasy baseball leagues. Our first articles were about a hitter’s BABIP as well as hard-hit rates. We then looked at pitchers and their SIERAs. If you didn't get... Read More
