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Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Ballpark Factors
WPC+ Videocast: Win Your H2H Points League in 2020!
Pierre Camus and Nicklaus Gaut reveal the right way to rank players for fantasy baseball points leagues. Don't use the same old rankings and tools as everyone else and don't treat it the same as roto 5x5 leagues! Like and subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest podcasts and catch... Read More
When and How Do You Target Sleepers on Draft Day?
A popular buzzword this time of year is "sleeper." Every fantasy baseball writer, podcaster, and radio analyst wants you to know why their sleeper is the one you should be targeting on draft day. Conversely, your league mates hope you've never even heard of their sleeper. As I prepared to write this article, I found... Read More
Elite Starters and Pitching Trends Revisited
Last year I wrote a series [Part 1, Part 2, Part 3] on whether we were properly valuing elite starting pitchers. The basic premise was that we were likely to see fantasy-relevant starters (not openers) throw fewer innings again in 2019. I hypothesized that if there were fewer and fewer starting pitchers providing 200 innings... Read More
Announcing RotoBaller's New Live Draft Tool
Last season at RotoBaller, we released a set of interactive cheat sheets to help fantasy players prepare for their drafts and the upcoming season. This preseason we have updated these cheat sheets and have also added a brand new Live Draft Tool to give you an edge while drafting in real-time! In addition to the Live... Read More
RotoBaller Friends & Family Industry Mock Draft: What the Experts Were Thinking
The RotoBaller Friends & Family Mock Draft has become an annual tradition where we gather some of the biggest names from the fantasy baseball world and put together a mock draft just as spring training has commenced. Thanks to RT Sports for once again hosting and providing a custom draft site where readers could follow... Read More
H2H Points League Draft Strategy
Points leagues are essentially the rawest version of fantasy baseball. These are not players, these are stat-lines and you want to put up as many points per week as possible. Do not get too attached to underperforming players who have name-value and potential. There is a stark difference in draft strategy when it comes to... Read More
Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Expected Stats
Statcast is a valuable tool for fantasy analysis, and it can be easy to look at a stat called "Expected Batting Average" and blindly use it as your projection moving forward. Of course, proper use of these metrics is a little bit more nuanced than that. First, a disclaimer: This article is about the "Expected... Read More
Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Pitcher Statcast
Statcast metrics such as Barrels and Brls/BBE are great ways to evaluate a batter's performance, so it is only natural to assume that the metrics would be predictive for pitchers as well. As much as batters want to hit a Barrel every time, pitchers want to avoid them at all costs. Yet there is evidence... Read More
Finding Combo-Player Values Using Z-Scores and ATC Projections
Towards the end of last season, I asked the question – “Draft Speed or Pound the Power?” Loaded in this seemingly simple query are two contradictory approaches – one for power and one for speed. Power Approach 1: Home run totals are dramatically up in baseball these days. Therefore, there are many power bats available... Read More
Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Spin Rate
Spin rate has become one of the most recognizable Statcast metrics, with supporters of a given pitcher highlighting his spin rates to make their case. Unfortunately, the baseball world has done a lousy job conveying what spin rate really means. The result has been a ton of owners who know that spin rate exists, but... Read More
How to Attack RP in SV+HLD Leagues
No position has seen as much evolution in recent seasons as the relief pitcher. Gone are the days where starters were expected to go seven innings as most teams have embraced the idea of "super-bullpening" and try to fit as many pitchers that can throw 95+ MPH into their bullpen as they can. Many fantasy... Read More
Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Pitch Info
One of the most fundamental questions in fantasy sports is if a player's current performance is sustainable. More than any other sport, baseball has a slew of statistical measures that can be dissected in numerous ways to analyze player performance. Pitch Info is a publicly-available pitch tracking system that provides a lot of different data to... Read More
Mock Draft Review: Best Late-Round Targets
Last week, some members of the RotoBaller staff completed a 12-team mock draft for standard 5x5 format. After the draft, we each broke down our strategy and some of our favorite picks, which can be found here. However, I want to take a closer look at one portion of the draft in particular. Since we know that... Read More
Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Pitcher BABIP
While FIP is a useful tool to predict a pitcher's future ERA performance, fantasy owners should remember that ERA, not FIP, is what really matters in most formats. This means that we are interested in the "luck" that separates the two statistics. While some of this luck is unpredictable, we can and should predict some... Read More
Talking Projections and Data-Based Drafting with Ariel Cohen
The fantasy baseball industry is driven by data and many analysts go so far as to develop their own systems for projecting value. Recently, ATC has become more popular as a baseline for those who are seeking a way to rank players for the upcoming season. I recently had a conversation with the man behind... Read More
Introducing EDV - Expected Draft Values for Fantasy Baseball
Last March at RotoBaller, we kicked off a cool fantasy baseball research project, exploring what we're calling Expected Draft Values. This offseason, we’ve refined the approach and our research, and taken things a step forward. We're sharing this concept with the fantasy baseball world now, and hope it's as helpful to you as it's been... Read More
Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: FIP and xFIP
The first advanced pitching stat most fantasy owners encounter is FIP. FIP stands for Fielding Independent Pitching, and attempts to measure a pitcher's actual skill instead of the effects of luck or his supporting cast. According to the DIPS theory, pitchers control only Ks, BBs, and home runs allowed. Therefore, Ks, walks, and dingers are... Read More
2020 RotoBaller Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Reactions
Over the last couple weeks, RotoBaller's roster has grown with several new faces to join our esteemed veteran corps. We figured it would be nice to roll out the welcome wagon with a February fantasy baseball mock draft, putting six "RotoNewbs" with six RotoVets. It was a snake draft hosted on Fantrax, a traditional 5x5 format with... Read More
Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Lineup Spot
You may be wondering why there aren't any advanced stats aimed at predicting a player's counting stats like runs and RBI. The answer is simple: modern sabermetrics reject the idea of a "clutch RBI guy" and therefore do not bother inventing predictive metrics for it. Runs and RBI are team-dependent stats and are unhelpful in ascertaining... Read More
Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Pull%
We have previously determined that fantasy owners generally prefer batters to hit the ball into the air in order to have a chance at a home run. Yet, all fly balls are not equal for this purpose. A player can maximize his power production by pulling the ball in the air. One way to illustrate... Read More
Early Mock Draft Analysis and Reaction: Fantasy Baseball
Pierre Camus and Nicklaus Gaut review the draft board from an early 2020 mock draft for fantasy baseball mixed leagues. Like and subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest podcasts and catch us on iTunes and BlogTalkRadio as well! Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (channel Sirius 210,... Read More
When Should You Draft Your First Starting Pitcher?
Pierre Camus and Nicklaus Gaut decide when you should pull the trigger on your ace in fantasy baseball drafts this year. How early is too early and can you wait to take your first SP? Like and subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest podcasts and catch us on iTunes and... Read More
Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Plate Discipline
No matter how high a particular player's BABIP may be, his average will be mediocre at best if he strikes out too much. This is why fantasy owners have known for years that players like Chris Davis are potential drains on a fantasy team's batting average. Furthermore, players that whiff a lot tend to continue... Read More
Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Batted Ball Distribution (Hitters)
Fly balls can turn into home runs. Ground balls never do. It would seem as though fantasy owners want their batters to hit nothing but flies, yet this is not always the case. Why would this be? The answer, of course, comes down to batted ball distribution and the manner in which batters make contact.... Read More
Early Mock Draft Analysis: MLB Mixed Leagues
Don't tell us it's not draft season yet! Truth be told, the RotoBaller crew was already planning a mock draft days after the World Series ended. As it turns out, we decided to wait until some free agent moves were made and settled for a slow draft that began shortly after the Winter Meetings. We... Read More
Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Barrels
Last time, we looked at how exit velocity (or EV) is only one piece of the fantasy analysis puzzle. Baseball broadcasts will commonly cite Launch Angle (LA) to complement their EV figures, but it is given in terms of degrees. Am I evaluating a baseball player or trying to find the hypotenuse of an isosceles... Read More
Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: BABIP for Hitters
The most accessible of the fantasy-relevant advanced stats is BABIP, or Batting Average on Balls In Play. It simply measures a player's batting average on balls in play, with outcomes such as strikeouts and home runs removed from consideration. In general, the league average hovers around .300, a nice round number to remember. Many know... Read More
Is Mike Trout Still the #1 Pick in Fantasy?
Pierre Camus and Nicklaus Gaut debate whether Angels outfielder Mike Trout should still be the consensus number one pick in 2020 fantasy baseball drafts or if Ronald Acuna Jr. or Christian Yelich should be taken higher. Like and subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest podcasts and catch us on... Read More
Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Exit Velocity
If you've watched a baseball broadcast in the so-called Statcast Era, you have undoubtedly noticed the broadcasters commenting on a batted ball's exit velocity, or EV. Many have taken to using stats like Hard% and Soft% to forecast how a player should be performing, expecting larger Hard% rates to produce larger BABIP and HR/FB figures.... Read More
