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Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: HR/FB
How To Win Your Fantasy Baseball Leagues on Draft Day
I hate intros. Nobody takes the time to read these things. I could say whatever I wanted and it would literally pass zero sets of eyes. Watch.... I have hemorrhoids! See? No one. But in the rare occasion that one of you sad saps does in fact read this paragraph before jumping to the meat... Read More
Don't Doubt Mike Trout: Why He's Still #1
It has become fashionable for fantasy owners to suggest that perhaps this is the year that Mike Trout should be supplanted as the consensus first overall draft pick. Not one, but two other players - Ronald Acuna and Christian Yelich - are being regularly selected in early NFBC drafts ahead of the 28-year-old Trout, who... Read More
Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: An Introduction
Hello, fellow RotoBallers! Sabermetrics have become an integral tool for fantasy baseball draft prep, but a concise resource for understanding the basics can be difficult to find. Over the next two months, this series will attempt to define and explain all of the metrics fantasy owners may find useful, citing examples of how to use... Read More
Is Mike Trout Still the #1 Pick in 2020?
Is it time to talk ADP already? Affectionately known as Mike Trout Doubting-Season, this is the time of year when some touts stick out sorely in declaring that the best player of this - and possibly any - generation should not be chosen first overall in fantasy. Instead, they have declared that it should be... Read More
Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 15 - Ballpark Factors
If you have ever selected a streamable pitcher based on home park or benched an otherwise must-start arm at Coors Field, you already know how much a stadium can impact a player's bottom line. Ballpark Factors quantify the influence each stadium has, allowing you to make the most of your fantasy team's real-life schedule. Today,... Read More
Why You Should Target Injury-Prone Pitchers (Sometimes)
To some fantasy owners, there’s nothing more frustrating than the good but oft-injured starting pitcher. It makes owners just want to wash their hands entirely of pitchers like Rich Hill, James Paxton, and Stephen Strasburg in favor of sub-par innings-eaters and often pushes these fragile hurlers down draft boards. However, in certain league formats, targeting these... Read More
Where Are The Elite Starters? Looking for 2019’s deGrom
Researching elite starters has taught me a number of things about pitcher development. One of the most valuable has been the reminder that progress is never linear. Blake Snell and Justin Verlander present recent examples of that. Verlander has been in “obvious decline” on two occasions now, and both times he’s bounced back. 2016 Blake... Read More
Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball Part 14 - Statcast Expected Stats
Statcast is a valuable tool for fantasy analysis, and it can be easy to look at a stat called "Expected Batting Average" and blindly use it as your projection moving forward. Of course, proper use of these metrics is a little bit more nuanced than that. Our series on how to make sabermetrics more accessible... Read More
Finding Under and Overvalued 1B Using Expected Draft Values
We've been rolling out our Expected Draft Values series, starting with Nick Mariano's look yesterday into some undervalued players, and we followed it up this morning with Nick's look at overvalued players. This afternoon, we're going to give you some undervalued and overvalued players at first base. As a quick primer, Expected Draft Value is the... Read More
Finding Under and Overvalued 2B Using Expected Draft Values
We've been rolling out our series on Expected Draft Values, an innovative new way to find under and overvalued players. Yesterday, we started with Nick Mariano's look into some undervalued players, we followed it up this morning with Nick's look at overvalued players and then Connelly Doan's look at some under and overvalued first basemen. This evening, we're... Read More
Intro: Finding Overvalued Players Using Expected Draft Values
Yesterday we introduced the concept of Expected Draft Values and looked at four undervalued players that are prime targets in 2019. Today, we'll look at four overvalued players. Stay tuned the next few days as we bring you a deeper look at undervalued and overvalued players from each position using Expected Draft Values. Generally, what... Read More
Intro: Finding Undervalued Players Using Expected Draft Values
At RotoBaller, we are all about bringing you the best analysis in the fantasy sports universe. We’re proud to unveil a draft-season project that looks at the past 10 years of draft data to find undervalued and overvalued players based on Expected Draft Values. This series introduction will briefly break down our methodology and then... Read More
Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball Part 13 - Statcast for Pitchers
Previously, we looked at Barrels, a stat combining exit velocity and launch angle to measure how often a batter makes quality hard contact. As much as batters want to hit a Barrel every time, pitchers want to avoid them at all costs. Yet there is some evidence that pitchers do not have the same influence... Read More
ADP Draft Sleepers Tool - Quickly Find Draft Day Gems
RotoBaller Premium Subscribers can click here to access the ADP Draft Sleepers Tool. RotoBaller’s ADP Draft Sleepers Tool is a powerful yet simple tool that can help you unearth fantasy baseball gems on draft day. It's a sleek tool that's easy to use, and will have a huge effect on your draft selections and help you... Read More
Where Do Elite Starters Come From?
Among expert drafts, starting pitchers are coming off the board earlier and more rapidly than in previous years. For instance, the LABR mixed league saw nine starters drafted in the first two rounds in comparison to just six in 2018 and five in 2017. Pitcher selection in expert drafts has been somewhat more aggressive than... Read More
Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball Part 12 - Spin Rate
Spin rate has become one of the most recognizable Statcast metrics, with supporters of a given pitcher highlighting his spin rates to make their case. Unfortunately, the baseball world has done a lousy job conveying what spin rate really means. The result has been a ton of owners who know that spin rate exists, but... Read More
When and How Do You Target Sleepers on Draft Day?
If you're the type of fantasy baseball enthusiast who enjoys the preparation as much as the draft itself, chances are you've been filing away names as potential under-the-radar breakout candidates. Maybe you've got your eye on a young utility player who is one injury away from regular playing time (not that anyone should be rooting... Read More
How to Avoid Cognitive Bias on Draft Day
Cognitive bias: whether or not we fully understand what it means or how it operates, we have all seen it at one time or another on draft day, regardless of the sport in question. It can take the form of a co-worker who insists on drafting a full roster of players from their favorite hometown... Read More
The Winning Way to Draft Relief Pitchers
We've gone through each division, team by team. We've talked about the top setup men you should know about this season. We've looked at handcuffs and which closers you should have a backup for on draft day. It's a lot of information, but how does it apply to your league? Most people play in standard 5x5... Read More
RotoBaller H2H Draft Strategy Primer
Fantasy baseball, much like the sport itself, it is one of the more complex to follow closely. Compared to fantasy football, in which nearly every league was head-to-head before the advent of best-ball, fantasy baseball comes in a variety of formats. Many leagues are roto-style, 5x5 category-scoring, with cumulative season-long stats. While that is the... Read More
Expert Mock Draft Reactions - RotoBaller Friends & Family
On February 13, 2019, we assembled a group of industry experts to take part in the second annual RotoBaller Friends and Family Expert Mock Draft. Our participants represented multiple sites, including: CBS Sports (Heath Cummings) The Athletic (Nando Di Fino) Fantasy Alarm (Howard Bender) Fangraphs (Alex Chamberlain) RotoWire (Tim Heaney) Mastersball/ESPN (Todd Zola) GuruElite (Ray... Read More
Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball Part 11 - Pitch Info
One of the most fundamental questions in fantasy sports is if a player's current performance is sustainable. More than any other sport, baseball has a slew of statistical measures that can be dissected in numerous ways to analyze player performance. Pitch Info is a publicly available pitch tracking system that provides a lot of different data... Read More
Best-Ball Targets and Sleepers For 2019
One of the biggest challenges that fantasy baseball owners face is that they literally have to follow it every day. Unlike fantasy football, where you only need to check lineups once a week, baseball is on every single day and if you don’t pay attention your season will be in jeopardy. Most leagues are won... Read More
Are Elite Pitchers Undervalued?
After San Francisco Giants’ president Farhan Zaidi announced that the team might use an opener this season, Madison Bumgarner messaged Bruce Bochy: “If you use an opener in my game I’m walking right out of the ballpark.” In addition to giving us the most Madison Bumgarner quote of all time, the news prompted me to... Read More
Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball Part 10 - Pitcher Batted Ball Distribution
The league average batted ball distribution in 2018 was 21.5% liners, 43.2% grounders and 35.4% flies. We have previously seen how pitchers may specialize in either grounders or fly balls. Fly ball pitchers have a BABIP advantage over their ground ball-inducing counterparts, since fly balls (.117 BABIP in 2018) consistently have lower BABIPs than worm... Read More
Winning Strategies For Your Dynasty League Startup Draft
Some people enjoy playing fantasy baseball one season at a time, drafting a new roster every year. Others are fascinated with drafting a team and managing it year after year towards multiple championship trophies. The latter individuals are best suited to play in dynasty leagues. For rosters to be competitive annually, they have to possess... Read More
Nick Mariano's Auction Draft Strategies and Tips (Premium Content)
All other Premium Tools can be accessed on the premium dashboard. Congratulations to you and your leaguemates for electing to play in the vastly superior format that is auction-based fantasy baseball. We can draw many parallels here, but playing/reading your fellow owners and managing your own money well lends itself best to poker. We're here... Read More
Josh Hayes' 2019 Best Ball Avoids (Premium Content)
All other Premium Tools can be accessed on the premium dashboard. The wait is over! Best Ball leagues are great for any fantasy baseball manager who wants to start preparing for the 2019 today, and is looking for an indication on which players are ADP risers and fallers this season. As important as it is... Read More
Early-Round Fantasy Baseball Draft Q&A with The King
All other Premium Tools can be accessed on the premium dashboard. Industry legend Scott Engel has joined RotoBaller as a featured contributor, building on 20-plus years in the fantasy industry. “The King” is an inaugural member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association’s (FSWA) Hall of Fame and a two-time FSWA award winner. When you are making... Read More
