Best-Ball Draft Strategy Overview for Fantasy Baseball
It's finally March, which can only mean two things: Spring Training and fantasy drafts. All the effort spent on rankings and draft prep finally come to fruition. Once your draft is completed, you then get to spend every day of the rest of the season analyzing player performances, scouring waiver wires and setting the best... Read More
RotoBaller Industry Expert Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft
On Thursday, February 15th, we brought together an illustrious group of industry experts to take part in the RotoBaller Friends and Family mock draft. We'll be playing this out as a best ball league. Our participants represented sites like: Creative Sports (Lawr Michaels) Fangraphs (Alex Chamberlain) GuruElite (Ray Flowers) Fantasy Alarm (Howard Bender) CBS (Heath... Read More
Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 10 - Ballpark Factors
If you have ever selected a streamable pitcher based on home park or benched an otherwise must-start arm at Coors Field, you already know how much a stadium can impact a player's bottom line. Ballpark Factors quantify the influence each stadium has, allowing you to make the most of your fantasy team's real life schedule.... Read More
Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 9 - BABIP For Pitchers
While FIP is a useful tool to predict a pitcher's future ERA performance, fantasy owners should remember that ERA, not FIP, is what really matters in most formats. This means that we are interested in the "luck" that separates the two statistics. While some of this luck is unpredictable, we can and should predict some... Read More
Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 8 - FIP and xFIP
The first advanced pitching stat most fantasy owners encounter is FIP. FIP stands for Fielding Independent Pitching, and attempts to measure a pitcher's actual skill instead of the effects of luck or his supporting cast. According to the DIPS theory that the metric is based upon, pitchers control only Ks, BBs (and HBP) and home... Read More
The Most Profitable Pitchers of the Last Five Years
If you missed last week’s column on the most profitable hitters of the last five years, you can find it here. That post explains the methodology behind this work, and acknowledges the considerable help I received from colleagues throughout the process. Today I'm here to take a look at the pitchers - players who have... Read More
Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 7 - Lineup Slot
To this point, this series has focused exclusively on trying to predict and validate home runs and batting average. There is a reason for this--modern sabermetrics tend to reject the idea of a "clutch RBI guy" and therefore do not bother inventing predictive metrics for it. Runs and RBI are team-dependent stats, and are unhelpful... Read More
Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 6 - Pull%
Earlier in this series, we saw that fantasy owners generally prefer batters to hit the ball into the air in order to have a chance at a home run. Yet, all fly balls are not equal for this purpose. A player can maximize his power production by pulling the ball in the air. Today we'll... Read More
The Most Profitable Hitters of the Last Five Years
As you may have heard me mention on Twitter or the fantasy baseball subreddit, I recently acquired the last five seasons’ worth of average draft positon (ADP) data for NFBC and all three of the major fantasy platforms (Yahoo, ESPN, and CBS). I am terrible at Excel, so it’s taken a lot of trial and... Read More
Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 5 - Plate Discipline
No matter how high a particular player's BABIP may be, his average will be mediocre at best if he strikes out too much. This is why fantasy owners have known for years that players like Adam Dunn and Chris Davis are potential drains on a fantasy team's batting average. Furthermore, players that whiff a lot... Read More
Should Fantasy Managers Swipe Left and Chase Steals?
Steals are an important statistic in fantasy baseball. They represent 10% of scoring categories in 5x5 leagues and earn an equivalent value or more to singles, runs and RBI in points leagues. Comparing runs and stolen bases, the fantasy significance of a steal is certainly overvalued versus its real baseball relevance. The Run Expectancy table... Read More
Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 4 - Batted Ball Distribution
Fly balls can turn into home runs. Ground balls never do. It would seem as though fantasy owners want their batters to hit nothing but flies, yet this is not the case. Why would this be? The answer, of course, comes down to batted ball distribution and the manner in which batters make contact. In... Read More
Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball Part 3 - Statcast for Batters
If you've watched a baseball broadcast in the so-called Statcast Era, you have undoubtedly noticed the broadcasters commenting on a batted ball's exit velocity, or EV. Many have taken to using stats like Hard% and Soft% to forecast how a player should be performing, expecting larger Hard% rates to produce larger BABIP and HR/FB figures.... Read More
Kill the Quality Start?
“Kill the win” entered the baseball lexicon years ago. It originally referred to the disproportionate attention a pitcher victory got from the casual fan, and it was one of the major arguments advanced during the rise of analytics. The phrase has been adopted by fantasy owners as well, as more and more leagues ditch –... Read More
2018 Dynasty Baseball Strategy - Discovering Closers
When looking to develop talent in a dynasty league, there are two paths to follow. The first is to select prospects. The depth of your league will determine how far you have to reach into the minors. In a 12-team league, you're probably looking to find the next Fernando Tatis Jr. In a 20-team league,... Read More
Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball Part 2 - HR/FB for Hitters
Using BABIP to predict a player's batting average is great. Average is a category in many league formats, and every hit is an opportunity to steal a base or score a run. But most owners find the long ball sexier. Every HR comes with a guaranteed run scored and at least one RBI. Many owners... Read More
January Expert Mock Draft Analysis - Best of the Rest
Here at RotoBaller, 12 of our expert writers recently took part in an early mock draft for the 2018 fantasy baseball season. We've already shared those draft results, including our big board from RT Sports, accompanied by a series of articles analyzing each round. Here's the complete list of recaps, in case you missed it: Round 1... Read More
Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 1 - BABIP for Hitters
Hello fellow RotoBallers! Sabermetrics have become an integral tool for fantasy baseball draft prep, but a concise resource for understanding the basics can be difficult to find. This series attempts to define and explain all of the metrics fantasy owners may find useful, citing examples of how to use them in the process. Twenty degrees... Read More
January Expert Mock Analysis - Rounds 16-23
From the middle rounds, we segue into the tail-end of our early bird mock draft. The 12-team draft was done by RotoBaller’s MLB writers with order as follows: Chris Zolli, Harris Yudin, Troy Klauder, Kevin Luchansky, Pierre Camus, Max Petrie, Nick Mariano, Max Brill, Connor McEleney, Kyle Bishop, Mario Hernandez, and Andrew Le. As mentioned... Read More
January Expert Mock Analysis - Rounds 10-15
Spring training is getting closer and the RotoBaller MLB team opened up our first bags of peanuts and cracker jacks with a 12-team mock draft last week. For consideration, this 23-round mock draft was a traditional 5x5 league consisting of nine pitcher spots and the rest starting offensive slots (including two catchers). The lack of... Read More
January Expert Mock Draft Analysis - Rounds 5-9
The 2018 MLB season is approaching ever faster and draft season is already here! RotoBaller recently gathered 12 of our baseball writers to conduct a 23-round mock draft in order to evaluate current ADP values. We will break down those draft results in detail throughout the week. This article will take a look at rounds 5-9... Read More
January Expert Mock Draft Analysis - Round 1
We at RotoBaller love to draft. In fact, we love it so much we couldn't wait until March or even February to start drafting! So we decided to share the results of our latest fantasy baseball mock draft, taking place on RT Sports, accompanied by a series of articles analyzing each round. Here's the complete... Read More
Snake Drafts and the Subtle Art of the Snipe
For the last several years, I’ve played almost exclusively in auction leagues. It’s a personal preference that isn’t unique or “correct.” I have a lot of reasons for this preference. That’s not what we’re going to talk about today, though. Instead, let’s spend some time touting one of the virtues of traditional snake drafts –... Read More
2018 Dynasty Baseball Strategy - Basic Asset Valuation
Dynasty baseball is a beautiful thing. In a redraft league, everybody is trying to win now. You all have the same goal. Dynasty formats allow for long-term planning. If your team is competitive, you'll value players differently than a rebuilding owner. This discrepancy makes it much easier to find mutually beneficial trades. Unfortunately, this same... Read More
Fixing A Broken Fantasy Baseball League
Coming into last season, my home league of 13 years had a problem. Since becoming a rotisserie league, adopting an auction draft, and instituting a new keeper system six years earlier, only one person had won it: Me. Let me state up front and unequivocally that I don’t intend or want for this article to... Read More
Forgetting The One That Got Away
If you’re a voracious consumer of baseball analysis – a judgment that, if you’re reading one of my articles almost three months before the season starts, I would deem fair – you’ve heard the following phrase plenty of times: Better a year too early than a year too late. This, of course, refers to older... Read More
2018 Dynasty Baseball Strategy - There Are No More Wins
Pitchers have always made for awkward dynasty assets. There's no denying that you need some highly productive arms if you want to win your league. However, pitchers - both starters and relievers - have this bad habit of turning into pumpkins with very little warning. It's relatively rare for a hitter to pull a Prince... Read More
2018 Dynasty Baseball Strategy - The Batting Average Nightmare
Last week, we discussed prioritizing power hitters when constructing your roster. In order to compete, most leagues require an average of roughly 25 home runs per active roster spot. Hitting that target requires a plan. However, power alone will not win a championship. Roster too many Joey Gallo types and you'll be left with a... Read More
All-Star Break Rest-of-Season Strategy: Head-to-Head Leagues
Happy All-Star Break to all you fantasy baseball nerds out there. As we sit through what seems like the longest four days of the summer, I thought it might be helpful to discuss some general season-long strategy for the rest of the year. Of course, strategy can differ greatly based on your league type, so... Read More
All-Star Break Rest-of-Season Strategy: Rotisserie Leagues
Happy All-Star Break to all you fantasy baseball nerds out there. As we sit through what seems like the longest four days of the summer, I thought it might be helpful to discuss some general season-long strategy for the rest of the year. Of course, strategy can differ greatly based on your league type, so... Read More