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Horse For The Course: PGA DFS (Course History) - WGC Mexico Championship

Hello again PGA family and thanks for joining me here at RotoBaller! Adam Scott emerged victorious at a Riviera course that gave the pros a true challenge last week. It was the Aussie's 14th career win on the PGA Tour and illustrates that Scott can still contend with golf's elite when his putter is at least lukewarm.

The most awesome thing about Adam Scott's win is that he was featured as a Pony in this article last week! Nailing a tournament winner is always tough, but it sure does feel good when it happens. While our Horse Bubba Watson suffered a surprising missed cut with a bogey on his last hole of the second round, every other player listed in last week's HFTC played the weekend at the Genesis.

Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history, for my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

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WGC Mexico Championship Overview

After a classic knockdown-dragout affair at Riviera last week, we head down Mexico way for a World Golf Championship event. The WGC Mexico has now firmly established itself on the PGA Tour schedule as the bridge between the West Coast and Florida "Swings". This will be the fourth year that this event has been held in Mexico City at Club de Golf Chapultepec since the powers that be decided to pivot away from Trump National Doral.

While some stars like Tiger Woods and Brooks Koepka have elected to skip the WGC Mexico, we will still see a star-studded field that includes defending champion Dustin Johnson and last year's runner-up Rory McIlroy. As with all WGC events, this is a limited and elite field that includes some international players that we don't see regularly see on the PGA Tour. Paydays and points are guaranteed this week, so motivation is always a slight concern in these types of tournaments. This is also no-cut event, which does shake things up a bit from a DFS perspective. Let's tee it up!

You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week.

 

The Course: Club de Golf Chapultepec

Par 71 - 7,330 Yards, Greens: Poa

This WGC event has found a nice home in Mexico City, with the Club de Golf Chapultepec set to host for the fourth consecutive year. Perhaps the most interesting note about this course is its MASSIVE elevation, as it sits over 7,600 feet above sea level. With the thin air, players can hit the ball a mile. This might seem to favor bombers, but actually the opposite is true. With most fairways being tree lined, players often elect to hit less than driver off the tee. With that said, distance is always helpful and long-hitters like Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, and Justin Thomas have fared well here. Finding the fairway is crucial, as is a players approach game. We are still on poa greens this week, which always seems to be an adventure. I'm targeting players that find fairways and have sharp approach games, especially with their wedges.

 

The Horse

Dustin Johnson (DraftKings - $11,000)

Notable Course History: Win ('19), T7 ('18), Win ('17)

DJ has been a staple in this article for the past few weeks, which speaks volumes about just how great he's been during this portion of the PGA Tour schedule throughout his career. He's certainly been unstoppable in this event. Johnson has won the WGC Mexico in two of the three years that it's been held at Chapultepec.

DJ had no problem holding off Rory McIlroy in last year's edition of this tournament and it's fair to wonder if those two will once again tangle this year. Johnson was in contention at Riviera last week, but stalled out with a final-round 72 to finish in a tie for 10th. Despite his underwhelming Sunday, it's hard not to like DJ's form as he heads south of the border. He gained 6.3 strokes T2G at the Genesis in his most complete outing of the new year and brings that momentum to a track where he's been downright dominant. If you are employing the "Stars & Scrubs" approach that is popular in these no-cut events, DJ is a great place to start your lineup construction.

 

The Ponies

Rory McIlroy (DraftKings - $11,500)

Notable Course History: 2nd ('19), T7 ('17)

If Dustin Johnson is option #1 this week, Rory is #1A. I could be convinced that McIlroy is an even better option than DJ, as he heads to Mexico in sterling form. Since winning the TOUR Championship and FedEx Cup title in August, Rors has made four starts...winning the WGC HSBC, notching two top-three finishes, and recording a T5 last week at Riviera.

Though McIlroy looked human in the final round last week at the Genesis, he brings true superhero form to Mexico and this Chapultepec course where he has an Avenger-like track record. Rory fell just short here last year, finishing runner-up behind DJ, and the Ulsterman scored a T7 in his only other WGC Mexico start in 2017. McIlroy has regained the number-one spot in the OWGR and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him come out on top in this week's tournament.

 

Tommy Fleetwood (DraftKings - $9,200)

Notable Course History: T19 ('19), T14 ('18), 2nd ('17)

As we move into the sub-$10k price range we find several players with solid track records in this event. The first player that jumps out at me is a golfer that we haven't seen on this side of the Atlantic in a while, England's Tommy Fleetwood. Fleetwood hasn't teed it up in North America since the TOUR Championship, but he has played well in two international starts this year, logging a runner-up finish in Abu Dhabi and a T11 in Dubai.

"Fairway Jesus" has played well in his three previous trips to the WGC Mexico, recording a runner-up finish in 2017 and top-20 finishes in his two subsequent starts at Chapultepec. Tommy is always a golfer that DFS players love to roster, but there is a chance that there's an "out of sight, out of mind" effect with him this week. While it hasn't come in the States this year, I love how sharp he's looked in his last couple of starts.

 

Sergio Garcia (DraftKings - $8,600)

Notable Course History: T6 ('19), T7 ('18), T12 ('17)

I expect Paul Casey to garner a lot of love at $8.7k, but folks might be a bit reluctant to roster Sergio Garcia at virtually the same price. Sergio was basically unplayable for the latter portion of 2019, but the fiery Spaniard has been figuring things out in 2020, and has logged a couple of top-10s in three starts on the Euro Tour this year. Garcia’s T37 at last week’s Genesis doesn’t seem like anything to get too fired up about, but he gained 5.9 strokes T2G at Riviera while losing a massive four strokes putting.

Those numbers tell me that Sergio’s tee-to-green game is rounding into form. He’s showing signs of life at a perfect time, as he heads to a Chapultepec track where he notched a T6 last year and has never finished worse than tied for 12th in three WGC Mexico appearances.

 

Tyrell Hatton (DraftKings - $7,400)

Notable Course History: T19 ('19), T3 ('18), 10th ('17)

We haven’t seen Tyrell Hatton in this hemisphere - or anywhere at all really - in quite some time, as Hatton hasn’t teed it up yet in 2020. The Englishman won the Turkish Airlines Open in November of last year and has been taking it pretty easy with his schedule since. He has to be eager to return to the WGC Mexico, an event where he’s been very successful in all three of his prior appearances.

Hatton falls in a Patrick Reed-type category for me, as he’s somewhat tough to peg statistically, but still seems to record strong finishes in some of golf’s biggest events. The lack of recent activity is a slight concern, but as we saw with Adam Scott last week, sometimes a little time off to recharge works wonders for these guys. While we don’t have any recent form to evaluate, he has been very consistent at Chapultepec, gaining strokes both T2G and putting in all three of his WGC Mexico starts. Hatton is also one of the few players below the $7,500 mark with course history that truly pops.

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