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RotoBaller PGA Expert Roundtable
Charles Schwab Challenge
The Expert Roundtable article is an attempt to get you inside the minds of our PGA DFS staff for every tournament.
Our four top golf writers - Joe Nicely, Spencer Aguiar, Josh Bennett, and Tommy Bell - will answer the same set of questions each week to give you an idea of how they are viewing the PGA DFS slate. Let's tee it up for the Charles Schwab Challenge!
Who is your favorite DFS value play?
- Joe Nicely: Lots to love in the mid-$7k price range, but Benny An ($7.4k) might carry the most GPP price-considered upside.
- Spencer Aguiar: Ryan Moore ($7,200) - Good mix of safety and limited ownership.
- Josh Bennett: Brendon Todd (6,800)
- Tommy Bell: Abraham Ancer considering safety + upside combo
Who is your favorite DFS “high priced” play?
- Joe Nicely: Webb Simpson ($9,800) will be popular, but it’s with good reason.
- Spencer Aguiar: Jon Rahm ($11,000) - Although popular, Rahm is grading out to have the best win equity for me of anyone in the field.
- Josh Bennett: Justin Thomas (10,600)
- Tommy Bell: I like a lot of them, but Xander Schauffele stands out at $9,600 based on his good history in strong fields and great Par 4 scoring
Who is your top GPP play?
- Joe Nicely: Brooks Koepka - We all know what Brooks is capable of when he’s focused and there’s a possibility that he goes overlooked this week. Runner-up at Colonial a couple of years ago.
- Spencer Aguiar: Brooks Koepka - Out of the past seven Millionaire Maker contests, Koepka has been included in six of them. Volatility in GPPs is a good thing, and the American has as much upside as anyone.
- Josh Bennett: Justin Rose - He’s won this event before, but recent PGA form is scaring people away. I think his switch away from Honma will do well for his game
- Tommy Bell: Brooks Koepka - I love the Koepka call here. I’ll also say Joaquín Niemann ($7,400) because his top form and a good putting performance on Bent-Grass could easily land him a Top 7 finish
Who is your top Cash-Game play?
- Joe Nicely: Matt Kuchar ($8,500) & Harris English ($7,500)
- Spencer Aguiar: Matt Kuchar ($8,500)
- Josh Bennett: Webb Simpson (9,800)
- Tommy Bell: Abraham Ancer ($7,300) and Billy Horschel ($7,400)
Which popular golfer will you be “fading”?
- Joe Nicely: I’m intrigued by Jordan Spieth ($8,000) this week, but his ownership is trending out of control. If it continues to look like he’ll be chalky, I’ll probably fade him in DFS and take a shot on an outright bet.
- Spencer Aguiar: Jordan Spieth ($8,000) - Jordan Spieth has the potential to get his season back on track at Colonial, but the intrigue of playing him throughout his poor stretch of golf has always come down to limited ownership totals. A chalky Spieth is a dangerous road to go down.
- Josh Bennett: Jordan Spieth. Can’t ride that ownership train
- Tommy Bell: Webb Simpson ($9,800) checks a lot of boxes, and fading him has burned me before, but I’ll go with the bigger upsides at the top price range and risk a big week for Simpson.
What stands out as the most important stat for this golf course?
- Joe Nicely: SG: Approach, Ball Striking, Scrambling, Fairways & Greens Gained
- Spencer Aguiar: Strokes Gained Tee to Green, Par-Four Scoring
- Josh Bennett: SG: Approach, Scrambling
- Tommy Bell: Greens in Regulation, SG: Par 4s
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Who is your favorite DFS “dart throw”?
- Joe Nicely: Joel Dahmen ($7,500), Talor Gooch ($7,000), Brendon Todd ($6,800)
- Spencer Aguiar: Bernhard Langer ($6,000)
- Josh Bennett: Brendon Todd (6,800)
- Tommy Bell: Brendon Todd ($6,800) and Erik Van Rooyen ($7,100)
What is your favorite bet of the week? (Any type)
- Joe Nicely: Benny An, Daniel Berger, & Harris English Outrights are all at 66/1
- Spencer Aguiar: Bernhard Langer Top-20 (20/1) - Price is at 25/1 at a handful of books.
- Josh Bennett: Brendon Todd top 20 (+650)
- Tommy Bell: Brooks Koepka to win at 25/1 (+2500)
Make a “bold prediction” for this week:
- Joe Nicely: One of the OWGR Top-Five Players misses the cut.
- Spencer Aguiar: Kevin Na, Jordan Spieth and Kevin Kisner all finish outside the top-40 while generating 10%+ ownership totals.
- Josh Bennett: Jon Rahm misses the cut
- Tommy Bell: None of the players from $8,100 to $8,900 finish in the Top 7 at the Charles Schwab Challenge. I’m a big fan of the $8k and below players paired with top-of-the-heap guys this week.
Who is your favorite overall DFS golfer and why?
Joe Nicely: Webb Simpson - He’ll be popular, but it’s with good reason.
Spencer Aguiar: Matt Kuchar ($8,500) - I believe the majority of Kuchar’s ownership will derive from his cash-game appeal, but the 41-year-old carries more GPP winning upside than some might imagine.
Josh Bennett: Patrick Reed (9,200) - great putter and short game, definitely has been grinding over the break. He’ll be coming in ready to win this one
Tommy Bell: Jordan Spieth ($8,000) - I feel crazy, but Spieth knows this is a huge week for his momentum and the way the golf world views him moving forward. I’ll get burned with everyone else if he’s still not right after a much-needed break.
What is your optimal DFS lineup building strategy?
Joe Nicely: Balanced build
Spencer Aguiar: Avoid the super chalky options. We have more volatility than usual because of the three-month layoff. Not the most profound strategy, but it will pay to have original ideas and thoughts for who you do decide to eventually play.
Josh Bennett: A 10k guy, mid-6k guy, and fill the rest in the mid ranges. Stars and scrubs hybrid?
Tommy Bell: 2-3 golfers in the $9k and up range, then fill in with mid-$7k and upper $6k
Who is your pick to win the tournament?
- Joe Nicely: Webb Simpson
- Spencer Aguiar: Matt Kuchar
- Josh Bennett: Patrick Reed
- Tommy Bell: Brooks Koepka with Bryson DeChambeau as a back-up
Is there a question you would like to have answered every week? Hit us up on Twitter @RotoBallerPGA. We would love to hear your feedback and ideas!
